Silvermere Eng Share Discussion Threads

[maock] 08/2/2013 15:45

worthington up more than double.

[montyhedge] 08/2/2013 14:46

Texas Sweet at a nine month high, we have the sweetest oil. Money rolling in boys, be patient.

[colva] 06/2/2013 13:47

cliveas

Yes the final production flow rates are the key and as dave444 has said they have the option of producing from the other sands to optimise production .The investment case just doesn't add up for me so i won't be getting back in , but good luck to all holders.

[philo124] 06/2/2013 12:45

Sold. GLA to those that stick it out.

[thenorth] 05/2/2013 17:03

Dave where did you get that from mate?

Grannyboy... lol well that too but for once the debate has been backed up with a thought process and not just 2p by easter... lol and i cant think of a share that this has happened....! Long may it continue!

[dave444] 05/2/2013 16:59

They said they could open up another level if needed yet the likelihood is the final production Will be higher

[colva] 05/2/2013 16:24

cliveas

This first well was supposed to generate enough revenue to cover the cost of running the company. Its not .

The development funding was to be raised by the exercise of warrants at between 20p and 30p. Clearly not going to happen.


The asset has real value but the company needs to raise some serious cash to move forward and it won't be easy .

[grannyboy] 05/2/2013 15:25

"and at least no disrespect or name calling"...I think they call it been punchdrunk or even the stockolme syndrome been invested in these.

[thenorth] 05/2/2013 15:02

As do I.... for the above reasons... I was into GKP at 27p.. i missed the boat at 9p.... when everyone was frightned by the RI...

Still Mustang is no Shaikan agreed but if it produces then it has value.. lets see what the fianl flow rates are with the correct choke and after they have finished the clean up phase...

Good debate and at least no disrespect or name calling... you lot can come again!

[cliveas] 05/2/2013 12:06

colva

Isn't that the way with fledgling oil producers?

Did you really believe all could be funded from this 1 well?

When commercial flow rates confirmed and still mcap 2.5m/35m shares investors will not fear dilution but will welcome it to grow the company.

A lot of investors are not happy here but take emotion out of the equation and it all stacks up.

GL I await the high teens!

[colva] 05/2/2013 11:38

cliveas ,

They paid 2.8m GBP for the Mustang asset and their mkt cap is about 2.6m GBP, there is also a CPR which values the company (based on P1 , P2, and P3 reserves) at a multiple of it's present value so i'm sure there are those who would say that they're undervalued (i thought so when i invested in 2011) . The problem is (as i see it) the revenue from production is not enough to pay the bills, to increase revenue they need to either drill more wells on Mustang or buy another asset , they had identified 3 targets for future drills at Mustang but they were targeting attic gas , so with the price of gas 35% lower than they had forcast and with the 3 drills costing between 3.2m - 5m i can't see them going ahead. They have talked about buying another asset , onshore New Mexico , but whatever they do they're going to need to raise a lot of cash which is going to be difficult and would mean dilution for shareholders .

[cliveas] 05/2/2013 10:23

rajaster

sentiment is against this share at the mo but still only 2.5m mcap against producing well in US!!!!!!!!!!

I know people will cite dilution but it is far worse elsewhere and now we know mustang island will produce and with no water!

Now happy to hold after that rns.Conf of flow rates on a bigger choke I believe will = breakeven on admin costs.

That just leaves funding for further wells = profit!

Could of been handled better but the end result will be no different imho!

[rajaster] 05/2/2013 09:45

cliveas we will know when the companys has finaly solved the mystery of participation in future well.

[cliveas] 05/2/2013 08:13

OK Colva lets turn this on its head!

What do you think the market cap of a company with a 16.66% share of a well producing 270 bopde should be? compared to its peers?

[colva] 05/2/2013 04:53

The well was supposed to be primarily a gas producer along with about 160bopd , the reason it has now been classified as an oil producer is NOT because its producing more oil than forcast(its not) but because its producing a lot less gas than forcast.

[rajaster] 04/2/2013 17:16

thenorth whether its black stuff or smelly stuff you dont see. the projected revenue figures remain the same.

[colva] 04/2/2013 16:49

This is from page 15 of the Admission Document.


"The I-1Well re-entry and side-tracking operation was completed in March
2011 leaving it ready to complete in sand horizons I-1 to I-6. Production and flow testing was carried
out during June 2011. The well re-entry programme was led by Dominion as the operator.
The results of the flow test are still being analysed but early indications are considered by the Directors
and Proposed Directors as being consistent with the Company's internal projections upon which this
document is based. Under test, the I-1Well flowed at up to 2MMscf/d gas with associated but unstable
liquids flow. This is expected to increase as the I-1 Well is cleaned up and stabilised. Although it is
hoped that production will start earlier, the Company's internal projections assumes a production rate
of 4MMscf/d gas and 160 bbls/d oil from early 2012 which is consistent with the expected increase after
an initial production period of 45-60 days."
----------------------------------------------------------


Their expectations were for 4MMscfd so how is 700000 scfpd in line with expectations. The cashflow neutral number was worked out using the production forcasts in the Admission Document so they must be well short.

[dave444] 04/2/2013 16:34

Placing at 7p means there is limited to no downside

[thenorth] 04/2/2013 16:04

colva... one vital bit missed there mate.... what about the oil coming out of the well????

Commenting on these recent developments, Andy Morrison, Chief Executive of Silvermere, said: "With the I-1 well in production we are pleased to note that initial flow rates are in line with expectations

8 out of 10 must try harder...

[pro_better] 04/2/2013 16:03

very little information given again...

what next????

[colva] 04/2/2013 15:00

The company's original forcast flowrates from the AIM addmission document were for 160 bopd and 4 MMscf/d gas which was going to leave them cashflow neutral, so gas flow rates at 700000 scf/d are way short of where they should be which means that the revenue from production isn't enough to pay the bills , the funding for future wells was suposed to come from the exercise of warrants at between 20p and 30p which is clearly not going to happen with the share price at 7.5p .

The company is in a situation where they will need to keep raising cash just to pay the bills, the 370k won't last long(outstanding development costs) and at the same time they need to raise a few million $ to move the company forward (drill more wells). The new 2600000 9p warrants are going to keep a lid on the share price for the time being.

Just the way i see it so DYOR

[rajaster] 04/2/2013 10:14

granny boy the market will continue to ignore because the company still needs cash to partake in future wells.
however be patient we will see how the market reacts in a week or two.

[grannyboy] 04/2/2013 08:20

Looks like it was'nt positive enough, the markets have just ignored it!!..

Wonder if they know of something afoot..