Signature Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[hot_property] 03/8/2006 08:00

i was right about sig heavily gapped! easy cash

[hot_property] 24/7/2006 09:29

Hi there Hervey,

This was almost exactly what happened to me in the dot.com boom, got smashed! my friend who was 28 at the time had an heart attack!!

I then went out of the market for a few years (and at the same time started working for a large stock brokers). I started to work on the sports side (sports spread betting). I am not a huge sports fan and not that interested in football etc. I found that the professional gambler in sports we making much higher returns than financial!!! what the hell? how?... I found that in sports there is less manipulation, such as football (generally the games are not fixed). Since Sports betting is done on 'analysis of performance' In Finance I started testing some piliminary ideas and found that some typical Technical Analysis patterns that we follow had very low probability of working! I felt sick! For example a double bottom has 55% chance of upswing thats completely almost random!!!) also if you look at a double bottom if it fails, it simply becomes another pattern such as a 'wedge' or isometrical triangle etc... but then how are you supposed to place a stop if your trading a double bottom? its complete rubbish. The real secrets are not out there. They way you can win is if you can identify what 'Market Maker Theory' is! why do people not write books on this? "because it would tell you the secret of how the friut machine operates" thats why.

However, if you use as a basis for calculation, close price, open price data and volume you will do well as these items cannot be maniplulated! during the day the MM with shaft the stock, put false orders on level 2 make stock go up and down then around 15mins to close bring stock near the point of where it will settle, thats the best time to trade and calculate risk!

I have much to say about this, it is very interesting...

I used to trade ARM many years ago the stock is attractive because of its daily range, so it 'prty' & 'sbt' but the MM shaft you hard. The stock can gap heavily and the way the stock moves (its personality) makes it difficult to open positions with stops that are good senarios. You want to open a high probability position that has 3 points downside and 9points + upside, you can keep doing this trade and only need to 'win' 1 trade out of 3, can you see how I bring odds into financial markets, its just the way of thinking.

If you search my name on ARM bullitin board I began shorting this heavy, people became 'attached' to the stock as it made them money, I was frowned upon as being opposite, many people lost heavy, I have not written much since because most people do not know what they are doing, this is why the markets make so much money, for the house, its risk free, the risk is passed onto you, so how are you going to deal with it? this is the thing! The first thing you should do is not to make money but to PROTECT the money you have got, very important. Use 'Kelly Formula' this will help you.

I trade mainly big stocks and am a specilist in Vodaphone, the volitily is low, and difficult to manipulate heavily due to liqualidity and many market makers. I do much probability trading on this and 'TSCO'. occasionaly if the pobability is very high I look at other stocks. At the moment the high probability stocks are: MSY SIG

[hervey] 24/7/2006 08:29

Not much to tell except a horror story. Last year I quadrupled my CFD account in 6 months or so. I did so by trading shares that go sideways and capitalising on trading ranges. It worked a treat.
I then went far too heavy in early May when the market retraced and lost it all (I guess I have been flushed.) I am now sitting on a serious loss and looking for a different way of trading until the market stabilises.
I have had difficulty in understanding a share like ARM recently, it seems that there is no limit as to what the market can do.

I do agree with you that if we all use the same tools then there is no advantage. This is why I'd like to find something different, personal and reliable.I have been at this for over five years and am not really any wealthier. Fear has now got hold of me and I don't want to loose more capital.

Do you make a regular incomefrom this game?

[hot_property] 24/7/2006 07:34

hi hervey I have been trading for about 15 years...I have developed a bespoke custom indicator that I use, it is based on probability trading (you can use the same indicator to prdict trends in sports also, I used to set prices for sports products, so if you understand risk properly you can off spin into a custom indicator). I don't know much about SIG, fundamentals the chart candles tell of high probability trades. My search told me to buy SIG at a lower level, I am trying to buy motr on a down day but SIG it real strong! difficult to get in....

So, Hervey back to your question, if you are using standard TA becaurful the market makers use this also to 'flush' the market, so they will give you a false signal then smash the market, you can only win limited money with norma TA....

anyway what is you experience....interesting to hear...

thanks
HP

[hervey] 24/7/2006 07:16

Hot_Property, do you swing trade? thx

[hot_property] 21/7/2006 08:33

buy this at 96p if you can my custom configuration is showing 73% chance of upside swing - thx

[2percent] 19/7/2006 20:38

any chance of a news box master rsi?

[master rsi] 17/7/2006 13:43

Directors think the shares are cheap, so buy back is the best option for share holders..........

Signet says to buy back shares worth 50 mln stg by Feb 2007

LONDON (AFX) - Signet Group PLC, the Anglo-American jewellery retailer, said
it plans to buy back its shares up to a value of 50 mln stg before the end of
its financial year to Feb 3 2007.

[what is a login ?] 12/7/2006 09:04

I only read the first line of the 17th April article by Sutherland Smith yesterday and didn't agree with it. The rest of the article is brilliant. Lol. Great advice for middle-aged saddoes and older. Going swimming in the pond on Hamstead Heath indeed and grinning into the mirror. Endorphins.Lol. Concerning SIG I'm not much of a number cruncher but that aspect of the article appears well researched and heartening too. The comment from the divine Marilyn Monroe on diamonds is highly relevant now as always.

[hectorp] 12/7/2006 06:47

hmmm a lot of working class and lower, like traditional bling, even if half of it is tat.
Re-read the article above dated 17th April. It suggests there could be good value here.
Of course if the US Dollar falls much in the coming year it will reflect on the earnings when restated in sterling terms. IF the price of gold silver and GGM's remains high or higher it could be a double whammy- but hey, there is not much gold in 9 ct tat is there?
Its on my watch list.

[what is a login ?] 11/7/2006 16:21

Increases in the prices of precious metals and also overhead costs will probably impact margins negatively. I think a lot of people prefer jewelry to be more ethnic these days.I bought SIG years ago quite cheaply after the Ratners debacle. A well run company but I think the share price will continue to go nowhere throughout the summer i.e. hover at around 95p. In the meantime the dividend isn't bad. For me it's a hold.

[masurenguy] 04/5/2006 17:58

LOL - share price has gone absolutely nowhere since this recommendation !

[1inamilion] 17/4/2006 19:46

Buy Signet at 109.75p
Argues Robert Sutherland Smith of UK350.com


Keeping fit is obviously important. Some of you will go for a run; others undertake physical endurance at a sports centre - or a gym as Achilles probably called it. Others ride a bike to work. I swim in the ponds at Hampstead. This physical activity keeps the blood pumping - very important for men of a certain age like myself - and release things known as endorphins which I understand make you feel cheerful. But there are simpler less arduous ways of keeping your spirits up. Practising smiling is one that actually works. I do it sometimes in the car which probably causes cyclists to be wary of me as they make eye contact with my madly grinning visage behind the wheel of a now ecologically sacrilegious elderly 4 x 4 Jeep.

Another way, is to scan the papers for funny stories. Finally, read about a company that is doing well and likely to continue to do well for some time to come. That brings me to Signet Plc, (SIG) whose preliminary results for the year to 31 January 2006 were published the other day. They were endorphin raisingly cheerful.




The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. UK350.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FSA and can be contacted at 49 Rivington St, London EC2A 3QB or on 0207 033 9389

Here is the UK's leading jewellery retailer operating under no nonsense high street names like H.Samuel and Earnest Jones. Last year in the UK Signet's operating profit was reported as falling from near 77 million pounds to 49 million pounds, caused in part by an 8.2% fall in 'like for like' sales in what was described as the worst trading conditions for fourteen years. That sounds pretty disastrous! But there is a twist. I cheerful investment irony that produces the same effect as practicing a recommended inane grin over the steering wheel.

Although Signet may be the UK's leading jewellery retailer it is also now the United States' leading specialist jewellery retailer with an increased 8.2% market share and the leading brand. In the US, in US dollar terms, operating profits last year soared by 17.3% to 167 million pounds, on a 12.1% rise in sales (reported as up 7.1% in 'like for like' terms). Over last five years, the average annual compound growth in Signet's operating profits in the US has been a deeply impressive 11.9%. Similarly, the average annual compound growth in sales and 'like for like' sales over the same five year period was reported to have been 9.7% and 4.7%. Signet had 1,814 outlets in total. Of these 1,221 (two thirds) are in the US and 593 in the benighted high streets and shopping malls of the UK. But this is not a simple tale of US 'good' and UK 'bad'! Even in the UK there was an objective silver lining or two.

Despite the lower sales and operating profits (which included a 1.7 million pounds restructuring cost) operating margins were still a healthy 10.5%; not bad for a period which covered the worst trading conditions for fourteen years. As was the fact, as the accounts show, that there was a 26.6% return on capital employed and a reported strong cash flow. In an accompanying trading statement, we are told that in the first nine weeks of the current year the 'like for like' percentage declines were reduced to 'low single digits'. In dear old Blighty, as it used to be called, the management plan is to improve things by increasing the average value of the average transaction. That means, in part, selling the girls more diamonds, just as the divine Marylyn Monroe suggested. Diamonds last year contributed 29% of sales value. That will be increased by new branded diamond ranges advertised on television and more e-commerce sales. The company is also doing something wonderfully old fashioned; training its staff in better customer service. Something with which the British are often strangely unfamiliar. Finally, the managers see opportunities for more operating efficiencies in the UK.

Back in the US, the company sees an expanding horizon of commercial opportunity. As the nation's leading 'retail jeweller of choice' it sees plenty of room for growth. It plans to spend a further $1 billion of store and selling space over the coming years. It plans a 40% increase in the number of stores and a doubling of selling space. In more specific terms, it plans to increase store space by 8% to10% a year organically and to consolidate that with acquisitions in a consolidating American jewellery market.

Signet looks an attractive and undervalued long term growth situation with some near term recovery in the UK and expansion in the USA. This year pre tax profits should grow again. One analyst close to the company sees earnings growing from 7.5p last year to 8.0p this year and 8.5p next year. Similarly, a well covered dividend payout to shareholders should rise from 3.3p last year to 3.6p this year and 3.9p next. That puts these shares on a price to earnings multiple of 12.9 for this estimate of next year's earnings and on a dividend yield of 3.55% more than twice covered by earnings. A glance at the last balance sheet is also encouraging. There are 308 million pounds of fixed assets of which 82% were tangible assets. Shareholder funds stood at 879 million pounds worth approximately 50p a share. Operations last year produced cash of 112.2 million pounds. This is a company with significant asset backing, cash flow and sustainable prospects for earnings growth. A good stock for that long term portfolio of investments. Buy.

[Abuse team] 23/3/2006 11:57

Post removed by ADVFN

[aos] 23/3/2006 10:31

Blueyonder - Try this:-

[aos] 23/3/2006 10:26

Blueyonder - Try clicking on your Stocname, in this case Signet. This will take you to a screen of information. Look for the word 'Fundamentals' in the top right hand corner. Click on that. Again, that will take you to another screen. Scroll down until you come to a chart showing the information relating to dividends, ie Ex-date , rec-date, payment date etc. This sould give you the information. Another alternative is to go to the offialial company website and look for an are (sometimes) called investor relations. Under that, they quite often have a 'Financial Calendar'. Hope this helps. Happy investing ;-)

Correction. Not Fundamentals, but 'Click For Financials'

Example of data:-
31 Aug 2005 Interim GBP 0.41 31/01/2005 31/07/2005 05/10/2005 07/10/2005 04/11/2005 -
06 Apr 2005 Final GBP 2.63 29/01/2004 29/01/2005 08/06/2005 10/06/2005 08/07/2005 3.00

[blueyonder] 23/3/2006 09:22

When are results? Where can you look to see forthcoming results of companies?
(Sorry for all the questions)

[foshizzle] 14/3/2006 10:43

Looks like it :)

[muzzy123] 31/1/2006 09:59

anyone buying up before results?

[master rsi] 29/1/2006 17:11

A good rise aswell at the US on Friday

SIG $ 18.4316 Net Change: 0.4816 +2.68%

[master rsi] 27/1/2006 17:30

UP on tuesday down on Wed and Thurs and up again today

Large volume on Tuesday to today

Indicators have been on oversold during the week

[aos] 09/12/2005 10:43

There seems to be some rather large trades going through this morning. I wonder what is happenning? Happy investing ;)

[mykai] 29/7/2005 13:10

Anyone know when interims are out hemscoot have 1st sep and m o n e y a m have naext thursday