Shell Share Discussion Threads

[la forge] 15/3/2019 13:35

Oil demand is beating bearish forecasts and will push prices above $70: Goldman Sachs
Published an hour ago
Tom DiChristopher
@tdichristopher




Key Points

Oil demand is growing faster than expected in the first quarter, on pace to jump by nearly 2 million barrels per day in the first quarter, says Goldman Sachs.
The strong consumption will likely push Brent crude oil prices above $70 a barrel.
The rally threatens to provoke one of President Donald Trump’s tweets calling for OPEC to tamp down prices.

AP: Top States 2018: Most Expensive: New Jersey gas station gas tax
In 2016 New Jersey raised its gasoline tax by 23 cents per gallon.
Julio Cortez | AP

The world’s appetite for oil and gasoline is growing faster than many forecasters expected, putting Brent crude on pace to top $70 a barrel, Goldman Sachs says.

The investment bank says oil demand grew by 1.55 million barrels per day in January alone, a strong result despite a tough comparison with high consumption last year. For the first quarter, Goldman expects global oil demand to grow by nearly 2 million bpd, trouncing its earlier forecast for 1.1 million bpd and driven by consumption in emerging markets.

“We continue to believe that ongoing macro and oil demand concerns are overdone,” Goldman analysts said in a research note on Thursday.

The strong demand will likely push Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, above $70 per barrel. The rally has already outstripped Goldman’s prior view that Brent would peak at $67.50 in the second quarter. Brent hit a 2019 high above $68 on Thursday.

It will also keep growth for the full year on pace for Goldman’s target of 1.45 million bpd, making the bank more bullish than most forecasters.

In China, a key engine for oil demand, oil consumption grew by 340,000 bpd in January and February, according to Goldman. The Chinese also stocked away 360,000 bpd, a buildup that runs counter to seasonal trends, the bank says.

Gasoline demand in particular is surprisingly strong. Over the last three months, Goldman’s subsample of consumers shows gasoline consumption growing by 510,000 bpd, the highest reading since May 2016.

Goldman sees catalysts around the world, including the move away from diesel engines in Europe, a value-added tax cut in South Korea and a drop in gasoline prices relative to biofuel in Brazil.

The bank warns that strong demand does create one key risk to the oil price rally: Rising prices could prompt one of President Donald Trump’s now infamous OPEC tweets.

“Any further meaningful rally in oil prices will likely lead to further US pressure to ease” output cuts by OPEC and its allies, Goldman said. “So far, however, the ongoing OPEC ‘shock and awe’ strategy has shown no signs of wavering after the latest US presidential oil tweet. ”

[waldron] 15/3/2019 07:05

European markets seen slightly higher after UK lawmakers vote to delay Brexit
Published Moments Ago
Sam Meredith
@smeredith19




Key Points

The FTSE 100 is seen 10 points higher at 7,195, the CAC is expected to open little changed from the previous session at 5,350, while the DAX is poised to start 12 points higher at 11,599, according to IG.
Market focus is largely attuned to global trade developments, as sentiment improved on a report that more progress has been made in talks between the world’s two largest economies.
U.K. lawmakers voted on Thursday to seek a delay in Britain’s exit from the EU.

European stocks are set to open slightly higher Friday morning, after U.K. lawmakers voted to delay a potentially chaotic exit from the European Union for at least three months.

The FTSE 100 is seen 10 points higher at 7,195, the CAC is expected to open little changed from the previous session at 5,350, while the DAX is poised to start 12 points higher at 11,599, according to IG.

[waldron] 14/3/2019 17:19

FTSE 100
7,185.43 +0.37%
Dow Jones
25,727.42 +0.10%
CAC 40
5,349.78 +0.82%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 67.39 -0.24%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.85 -0.17%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.85 +0.92%


(WTI) - 14/03 17:54:42
58.6 USD +0.51%



Total
51.45 +0.47%


Engie
13.3 -0.26%

Orange
13.785 +1.43%


Eni
15.538 -0.04%


BP
549.9 +0.38%


Shell A
2,376 +0.47%


Shell B
2,390 +0.61%

[waldron] 14/3/2019 17:18

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA.LN) has set a short-term cardon-dioxide emissions target for the first time, the company said Thursday.

The oil giant said it aims to cut its net carbon footprint by up to 3% by 2021, compared with 2016, as it works toward meeting its goal of halving its greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

"We are seeking cost-effective ways to manage GHG emissions and see potential business opportunities in developing such solutions," Shell said.

Shell's total GHG emissions fell in 2018 by 3.5% to 82.24 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent from 85.25 million in 2017, according to the company's annual report. Shell made emissions and other environmental metrics available for the last two years in the report.

The company's GHG intensity--a measure of emissions when compared to production--from refining and hydrocarbons fell by 7.9% and 4.8%, respectively, Shell said. However, GHG intensity for petrochemical production rose 1%.

In December 2018, Shell agreed to set short-term CO2 targets as part of its long-term carbon reduction ambitions, following pressure from Climate Action 100+, a group of environmentally conscious investors representing more than $32 trillion in assets under management. At the same time, Shell also said 10% of executives' remuneration would be linked to carbon reduction targets.

The company said in 2017 that it would start spending $2 billion a year to fight climate change and to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

But Follow This, a group of more than 4,600 shareholders in oil companies including Shell, said the oil company's short-term targets and actions don't go far enough.

"Shell takes another step towards Paris, however, this will not get us to Paris," said Mark van Baal, founder of Follow This.

The International Panel on Climate Change has said there needs to be a 70% to 100% reduction in energy emissions by 2050 to meet the goals of the Paris agreement, but Shell is only achieving an absolute reduction in emissions of 30% by 2050 when factoring in the growing energy demand it anticipates in the coming years, Mr. van Baal said.

"While we are committed to reducing our GHG intensity, as energy demand increases and easily accessible oil and gas resources decline, we may develop resources that require more energy and advanced technologies to produce," Shell said. This could result in an increase in direct GHG emissions, it added.

"The oil and gas industry can make or break the Paris Climate Agreement," Mr. van Baal said.



Write to Dieter Holger at [e-mail]; @dieterholger



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 14, 2019 12:57 ET (16:57 GMT)

[fjgooner] 14/3/2019 16:25

From the above mentioned annual report:

-----------

Chief Executive Officer’s review:
Delivering on our promises

Shell delivered a very strong financial performance in 2018. We are
continuing to make good progress in building a world-class investment case.
Higher oil and gas prices, combined with our ongoing work to improve the
performance and competitiveness of our businesses, contributed to a sharp
increase in cash flow from operating activities to $53 billion in 2018. We
are on track with our outlook of annual free cash flow of between $30
billion and $35 billion by 2020, at a Brent crude oil price of $60 a barrel
(real terms 2016).

We delivered on our promises for the year, including completing our $30-
billion divestment programme and starting up key growth projects, while
maintaining discipline on capital investment. We paid our entire dividend in
cash, further reduced our debt and launched our share buyback
programme.

But 2018 was not all good news for us. Tragically, a contractor died at our
Rheinland refinery in Germany and another died at an onshore well in the
USA. I am deeply unhappy about these incidents and call on all Shell
employees, contractors and suppliers to redouble their focus on safety.

RESULTS

Income for the period was $23.9 billion in 2018, compared with $13.4
billion in 2017. Earnings on a current cost of supplies basis increased to
$24.4 billion, compared with $12.5 billion in 2017. We distributed $15.7
billion to shareholders in dividends in 2018.

After cancelling the Scrip Dividend Programme with effect from the fourth
quarter 2017 dividend, our healthy free cash flow outlook and stronger
balance sheet gave us the confidence to start our share buyback
programme in mid-2018. We intend to buy back at least $25 billion of
shares by the end of 2020, subject to further progress with debt reduction
and oil price conditions.

With the continued strengthening of our balance sheet, cash flows and our
ongoing focus on capital efficiency, I am confident that we will do this while
continuing to grow our portfolio.

We continued to deliver new projects, including the completion of an
important chemical plant expansion in China and starting production from a
deep-water development in the US Gulf of Mexico a year ahead of
schedule. Overall, our production averaged 3.7 million barrels of oil
equivalent a day in 2018, unchanged from 2017. Increased production from
new field start-ups and ramp-ups, as well as lower maintenance activity, was
offset by the impact of divestments and field declines.

Stronger crude oil and gas prices contributed to sharp increases in our
Upstream and Integrated Gas earnings, while Downstream earnings fell
slightly.

We continued to streamline our business – including the sale of our
Downstream business in Argentina; Upstream interests in Iraq, Ireland,
Norway and Oman; and Integrated Gas interests in Malaysia, New
Zealand and Thailand.

The progress of our divestments has helped us to reduce net debt, with
gearing standing at 20.3% at the end of 2018, down from 25.0% in 2017.
Although our $30 billion divestment programme for 2016-18 has been
successfully completed, we expect to continue divestments at an average
rate of more than $5 billion a year until at least 2020. This will help us to
further strengthen the balance sheet, reduce debt and increase focus on our
strategic priorities.

Capital investment in 2018 was slightly below $25 billion, reflecting our
disciplined capital investment approach. Our capital investment outlook
remains between $25 billion and $30 billion a year until 2020. We see
$30 billion as a ceiling, even in a high oil price environment. Our continued
focus on capital efficiency and streamlining our portfolio will make us more
resilient and competitive.

We will continue to carefully control our costs and investment levels, but we
are still investing in strong commercial opportunities for growth. For
example, we added deep-water exploration acreage in both the Mexican
and US parts of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Brazil, and off the
coast of Mauritania in 2018. We also announced two large deep-water
discoveries in the US Gulf of Mexico.

Natural gas will play a key role in the transition to a lower-carbon global
energy system over the next few decades, with liquefied natural gas (LNG)
shipments playing an increasingly important part. This is one of the driving
forces behind our taking the final investment decision in 2018 on LNG
Canada, a major project in which Shell has a 40% interest.

LNG Canada is well positioned to help Shell meet some of the world’s
growing gas needs. We expect the cash flow it generates to be significant
and resilient. Sustainable development was considered in every aspect of
the project. For example, it has been designed to achieve the lowest
carbon intensity of any LNG project in operation today, aided by the
partial use of hydropower.

In December, Shell announced plans to set short-term targets for reducing the
Net Carbon Footprint of the energy products it sells – a carbon intensity
measure that includes our customers’ emissions when they use these products
– and to link these targets to executive remuneration. This is an industry first.

Shell’s Remuneration Committee will include a new performance condition
linked to the transition to lower-carbon energy for the Long-term Incentive
Plan grant starting in 2019, one year earlier than planned. Further details
are in the Directors’ Remuneration Report.

In 2018, I also announced our ambition to provide a reliable electricity
supply to 100 million people in the developing world by 2030. Economic
and social progress are being hindered in many countries by a lack of
reliable energy supplies that are essential to providing basic medical
services and clean water, for example. Better access to energy improves
people’s lives.

I am proud of Shell’s success in 2018. We will continue to focus on
delivering on our strategy in 2019, maintaining our disciplined approach to
capital investment while working to grow our cash flow and returns. Our
strategy to deliver a world-class investment case is working.

Ben van Beurden
Chief Executive Officer

[the white house] 14/3/2019 13:52

Cheers for annual report info Oil draw surprised hence 1 buck rise and continues....where is Donald?A cursory glance at the ADVFN 1 year chart shows the highest sale time of last year around this time ie after March ex divvi and before end tax year. Again we can see a big volume of sales post March divvi date. Interestingly after this activity last year price rise by 600p odd from now til June....

[sarkasm] 14/3/2019 11:59

The world’s fifth largest oil and gas producer in the world, Royal Dutch Shell, is getting further into the blockchain game, and is looking to train the next generation of blockchain industry execs.

Shell is looking for “blockchain analysts” as part of its Information Technology (IT) graduate programme, according to a job listing on its graduate careers website.

[sarkasm] 14/3/2019 09:06

Shell B
2,394 +0.78%

[waldron] 14/3/2019 07:06

14-Mar-2019

Royal Dutch Shell plc published its Annual Report and Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2018.

The 2018 Annual Report and Form 20-F can be downloaded from www.shell.com/annualreport.

Printed copies of the 2018 Annual Report and Form 20-F will be available from April 16, 2019, and can be requested, free of charge, at www.shell.com/annualreport.

The Annual Report and Accounts will be submitted to the Annual General Meeting to be held on May 21, 2019.

[waldron] 14/3/2019 07:01

European markets set for a muted open amid Brexit confusion
Published 17 min ago | Updated Moments Ago
Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt




Key Points

European markets are heading towards a broadly flat open Thursday as investors digest the latest Brexit vote in the U.K. Parliament ruling out a no-deal departure from the block.

[waldron] 13/3/2019 17:45

FTSE 100
7,159.19 +0.11%
Dow Jones
25,735.33 +0.71%
CAC 40
5,306.38 +0.69%

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 67.31 +0.96%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.85 +1.64%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.81 +0.97%

(WTI) - 13/03 18:20:24
57.9 USD +1.29%



Eni
15.544 +2.51%


Total
51.21 +1.09%


Engie
13.335 +0.00%

Orange
13.59 +0.48%



BP
547.8 +2.09%


Shell A
2,365 +0.68%


Shell B
2,375.5 +0.68%


A move up perhaps not as good as other majors, but lets hope we have now broken again into the 2375 to 2475p BOX

[fjgooner] 13/3/2019 14:40

Bullish EIA data just released, both key metrics beating consensus by a wide margin.

-----



DOE crude oil inventories -3862K vs 3000K estimate

Wed 13 Mar 2019 14:30:10 GMT
Author: Greg Michalowski

Weekly oil inventory data from the US Department of Energy. Crude traded at $57.75 prior to report

•crude oil inventories -3862K draw vs an estimate of 3000K build
•gasoline inventories -4624K draw versus -3000K draw estimate
•distillates 5039.3K build vs 5506.9K build last week
•US refinery utilization 0.10% versus 0.50% estimate
•US crude oil implied demand 19298 versus 18091 last week

The private data released near the end of day yesterday also saw a draw in oil and crude oil.

[waldron] 13/3/2019 07:23

European stocks seen lower after historic Brexit deal defeat
Published an hour ago | Updated 34 min ago
Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt




Key Points

European markets are expected to open lower on Wednesday after the U.K.’s Brexit deal with the EU was rejected by lawmakers in a landmark defeat for British Prime Minister Theresa May.
London’s FTSE is expected to open 26 points lower at 7,125, the French CAC is seen 28 points lower at 5,242 and the German DAX is seen 51 points lower at 11,473, according to IG.
America’s aviation regulator is still refusing to ground Boeing 737 MAX 8 planes despite pressure.

European markets are expected to open lower on Wednesday after the U.K.’s Brexit deal with the EU was rejected by lawmakers in a landmark defeat for British Prime Minister Theresa May.

London’s FTSE is expected to open 26 points lower at 7,125, the French CAC is seen 28 points lower at 5,242 and the German DAX is seen 51 points lower at 11,473, according to IG.

[bigfrocks] 12/3/2019 20:40

Buywell what a legend, couldn't have said it better myself!