Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 12/12/2017 16:23

will be interesting to see if this short term spike will encourage more medium to longterm capex and investment projects especially in the Mediterranean Sea

[montyhedge] 12/12/2017 13:32

2535p all being well.

[2hoggy] 12/12/2017 12:52

Whats this a gas explosion at the gas distribution plant in Austria,what next??

[montyhedge] 12/12/2017 10:44

maywillow
Lets see I reckon this won't be fixed in two/ three weeks, but of course don't know. 450,000 bopd offline.
It is a 100 mile pipeline, I would have thought its got to be checked for any other cracks. If Opec said we are cutting 450,000 then Oil would be through the roof, surely.

[maywillow] 12/12/2017 10:38

MONTY I THINK YOU ARE GOING OVER THE TOP

The conditions out there are not brilliant during most of the year and depending on what depth they will be cushioned from the elements imo

[waldron] 12/12/2017 10:36

chuckle

dont count your christmas chickens yet

it will have to seriously break thru the 2475p resistence

[maywillow] 12/12/2017 10:09

very true hoggy

[2hoggy] 12/12/2017 10:02

Just goes to show there is always something to throw a spanner in the works when it comes to the oil price.

Sods law will prevail as it does in normal life,if any thing can go wrong it will.

[montyhedge] 12/12/2017 09:53

In winter this will take a longer. if it took 6 weeks, will this get oil to $85.

I can see record high coming for Shell, yield 6.25%.

[maywillow] 12/12/2017 09:46

Closure: The pipe will be shut down for around three weeks. SWNS

Repairs to the Forties pipeline, which carries 40% of North Sea oil and gas, could take up to three weeks, operators have said.

The pipeline has been shut to repair a crack in the pipe which was discovered last week during a routine inspection south of Aberdeen.

Operators Ineos said the repair would be more complicated than first thought as the crack was spreading.

They said the impact for customers would be very significant but the domestic market was not likely to be much affected.

Cheif executive Andrew Gardner said workers found a hairline crack in the pipe last Wednesday which then started to grow despite efforts to repair it.

He said: "Over the weekend we noticed the crack starting to develop and grow further.

"It was about 10cm and it grew another couple of centimetres. We reduced the pressure further and then at that point the crack still grew, so the only safe option was to take the system down so we could be convinced that we could stop the growth of the crack and get in and do a proper permanent repair.

"It was a straightforward process when the crack was not moving. Now that the crack is propagating we need to be very careful that whatever repair isn't just masking a crack underneath, so it will probably be a little bit more complicated than what we thought it was going to be, hence why we need to take the system down."

Asked how long the system was likely to be down he said: "We're estimating just now between two and three weeks.

"Overnight the system has come down, we've been making it safe and now we need to get in and inspect further and the results of that inspection now that the system is safe will obviously determine the repair mechanism."

Some local residents have been placed in temporary accommodation while the repairs take place.

Ineos only recently bought the pipeline, which takes mainly oil to the company's refinery at Grangemouth.

Mr Gardner said the impact of the shutdown would be "very significant" for Ineos customers the North Sea producers, who are now not producing, and apologised to them.

[montyhedge] 12/12/2017 09:45

I reckon back over 2500p if this cracked pipeline drags on.

[montyhedge] 12/12/2017 08:58

Trying to fix in Winter, I reckon longer than people think, hopefully, lol.

[waldron] 12/12/2017 08:43

Tuesday 12 December 2017 8:34am
Brent crude oil prices climb past $65 a barrel on Forties pipeline shutdown
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A general view of the entrance to the Br
Ineos bought the Forties pipeline from BP just about six weeks ago (Source: Getty)

Brent crude oil prices shot up more than one per cent today to break $65 a barrel and reach their highest level since mid-2015 after the major Forties pipeline in the North Sea was shut down for repairs yesterday.

Ineos, which recently became the owner of the pipeline, said a shutdown was the safest way forward after a small hairline crack was found in the pipeline, which carries about 450,000 barrels per day, or 40 per cent of UK production.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose to as high as $65.70 a barrel this morning after adding to gains from yesterday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, the US benchmark, received a smaller boost, rising up more than 0.7 per cent to $58.46 a barrel, but the price difference between the two widened to as much as $7, the most since May 2015.
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Brent was last above $65 per barrel in June 2015.

Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at Forex, said: "This has put oil bulls on alert because no one is quite sure how long the closure is going to last with a spokesman for operator Ineos saying it could take 'several weeks'.

"Although there are ample supplies of oil in storage tanks, this may not be enough to meet demand if the repair works take longer than 'several weeks'. The Forties Pipeline System delivers the main crude oil underpinning the Brent benchmark; hence why it surged higher today."

The government yesterday assured there was no "security of supply issue" for fuel or gas as a result of the repairs.

The rise in oil prices lifted the stocks of London-listed oil majors as well. BP's shares rose 0.8 per cent to 502.7p in morning trading, while Shell's stock rose 0.62 per cent to 2,427.5p.

[montyhedge] 12/12/2017 08:35

$70 is a certainty in my view, I know we don't need $70 but bigger profits always nice, lol.

[fjgooner] 11/12/2017 23:07

@montyhedge 1744,

We don't need anywhere near as high as $70 Brent.

The last quarter's results were superb at $52 Brent. This current Q4 as of today is showing average Brent at $60.63 with just 12 trading days to go, so Shell's Q4 is going to shine for sure.

Check data at:


2018 Brent average at $60 will do just nicely. Any higher would, of course, be a huge bonus.

The projected global LNG shortage for 2020-22 will be our biggest ever sustainable source of free cash flow.

I feel that we have a great few years ahead of us as Shell shareholders. And even though I don't personally wish for one, I have a gut feeling that we may be forced to accept an increased dividend from 2018Q1 onwards.

FJ :)

[fjgooner] 11/12/2017 21:29

Shell has the relatively small Nelson installation out there as far as I know.

But it only pumps oil via the Forties pipeline - the gas goes to St Fergus via the Fulmar pipeline.

So Shell should be good on this event and could actually help out over the next few weeks by plugging supply gaps.

We have got to keep the Grangemouth refinery supplied.

That is serious for UK fuel production - it could hurt our economy otherwise.

[montyhedge] 11/12/2017 20:51

$70 must be.

[2hoggy] 11/12/2017 18:01

I bet bp are wiping their brow after selling it..

What a time to go offline when the weather is so cold.

[montyhedge] 11/12/2017 16:44

I reckon that could take weeks. Good news for us and oil price.

[waldron] 11/12/2017 16:43

Monday 11 December 2017 4:38pm
Ineos is shutting down its huge Forties pipeline to fix a crack
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Courtney Goldsmith
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The Grangemouth oil refinery west of Edi
The Forties Pipeline Systems transports oil to the Grangemouth refinery (Source: Getty)

One of the oldest and largest pipeline systems in the North Sea will be shut down due to a cracked pipe.

The Forties pipeline system (FPS) carries about 40 per cent of North Sea oil and gas.

Ineos, which completed its $250m (£187m) acquisition of the FPS from BP at the end of October, said contractors discovered a small hairline crack in the pipe near Netherely, south of Aberdeen, last week.

Despite work to reduce the pressure in the pipe, Ineos said the crack widened and shutting the pipe was the "safest way to proceed".

"This will allow for a suitable repair method to be worked up based on the latest inspection data, while reducing the risk of injury to staff and the environment," Ineos said.

Ineos said a very small amount of oil seepage was reported last week. Measures to contain the seepage were put in place, and no oil has been detected entering the environment.

"As always, safety remains our top priority and local residents, FPS users and other stakeholders are all being kept fully informed of the situation as it develops."

The Forties pipeline system, which is one of the oldest and largest in the North Sea, is about 100 miles long and transports around 450,000 barrels of oil a day, which is about 40 per cent of UK production.

The pipeline was built and operated by BP from 1975 to transport oil from the Forties field, the UK's first major offshore oil field. It now carries oil from 85 fields in the North Sea to be processed at the Grangemouth refinery, which Ineos also owns.

Ineos has been on an acquisition spree lately, snapping up Europe's oldest football club, Lausanne Sport, fashion brand Belstaff Group and a majority share in two exploration licenses in a North Sea gas field with estimated reserves of as much as 5 trillion cubic feet.