Shell Share Discussion Threads

[imperial3] 31/12/2015 13:25

The more the price of oil falls,the weaker and weaker becomes the case for the BG deal.The producers just keep on pumping,in spite of the disarray among themselves.If the deal goes ahead,this just puts further pressure on the maintainence of the dividend.The argument strengthens to vote against the deal.

[ianood] 31/12/2015 09:06

Do you honestly believe that the Iranian supply will be "new"? They have just been trading outside of OPEC. Also, they need considerable investment to increase supply so it ain't just a case of turn on the taps.

[fireplace22] 31/12/2015 08:35

Low demand? Demand is growing year on year, output generally isn't.

[montyhedge] 31/12/2015 08:23

Iran sanctions beginning 2016 lifted, extra 500,000 to 1m barrels will come on the market.Just a glut of oil. Over supply and low demand = lower price.

[essentialinvestor] 31/12/2015 08:19

The GS base case in not $20's for crude, it is a headline grabbing
number so was pounced on by the media, that remains their outlier call,
at least that is my understanding.

Reasons to be cheerful for 2016? - on the top of my list would be that SA
cannot continue to live with crude near these levels, so something has got
to give imv.

My own take(guess) is that Q1-Q2 2016 sees the low in oil and some other
commodities.

Have a great NY folks.

[fireplace22] 31/12/2015 08:18

Saudi production down 0.5M barrels/day since the summer can they maintain their output further out?

[montyhedge] 31/12/2015 08:03

Personally I think Shell should pull out of takeover, it's seems crazy with glut of world oil. Saudis want $20 oil to put US shale out of business.

[montyhedge] 31/12/2015 07:59

Turning tankers away from UK, glut of oil.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12064450/UK-awash-with-oil-as-tankers-forced-to-turn-around.html

[ianood] 31/12/2015 00:16

Personally, my vote for both industry knowledge and expertise lies with Ben Van Beurden. If BVB believes the moment for the acquisition to be opportune then I will follow his guidance even if it takes a couple of years to filter through. I do not believe that some fund/compliance manager along with generalists at the Daily Mail and Telegraph who's track records and knowledge are somewhat less than my own should be taken seriously.

[whiskeyinthejar] 31/12/2015 00:13

The Goldman rationale I saw was it might take $20 to break shale.

But Bloomberg reports that there's currently a wall of debt heading for default so no need imo.

"$99 billion in face value of high-yield energy bonds are trading at distressed prices"


Shale's Running Out of Survival Tricks as OPEC Ramps Up Pressure

[imperial3] 30/12/2015 21:27

If some of the so called oil "experts" are saying that oil will be $20 in 2016,then Shell should pull out of the BG deal tout suite!

[careful] 30/12/2015 21:13

traders bang on about saudi oil production.
long term investors are a smarter bunch, they know that saudi produces only 11m barrels/day out of a total of 94m barrels/day.

oil will rise this year, etf's and cfd shorts will close.
demand is strong.

[atlantic57] 30/12/2015 21:13

Monty some of the oil 'experts ' are saying oil will hit 20 dollars a barrel in 2016,
So you should have plenty of trading opportunities in 2016.I don't believe that your comments
On here for a huge company like Shell would influence the price, though some inexperienced
Investors no doubt would be influenced.

However I was genuinely puzzled how your views could change so dramatically
In such a short period of time when nothing substantially has changed .The American oil inventories is
Surely a short term event.We were awash with oil last week and we are awash this week.

Good luck to all in the new year.
I can't predict future events but for me £15 a share on a three year view seems fair value.

[montyhedge] 30/12/2015 20:53

Who knows whats going to happen, it's all guess work, one figure in the US tonight oil inventories change things for me, oil down tonight.But we are traders, not investors, investors who tuck away of course in the long run will be ok.

[montyhedge] 30/12/2015 20:17

Anyone who makes their trading/investment decisions on what the bulletin boards have to say, should not be investing at all.The stock market will eat them alive.

[essentialinvestor] 30/12/2015 20:13

Well would hope investment decisions are not made on the basis of
one poster on a free BB, particularly when he is a trader, which he
is clear about.

What about TMF with their constant stream of 10 reasons to buy a particular
stock type articles, next day 10 reasons to sell.

[whiskeyinthejar] 30/12/2015 19:52

You can't affect the shareprice of Shell here, but you can affect the individual investment decisions (or gambles lol) of people.

Ramping or bashing shares is pretty low when there's no reason why we shouldn't be trying to help each other. Long or short.

[leonasdad] 30/12/2015 18:55

xxxxxy

simple.

xyxxxxmlm

[montyhedge] 30/12/2015 18:53

Does any one know the correlation between the adr's and London quote. 1545p at the moment US. Or are they the same?

[xxxxxy] 30/12/2015 18:32

Complicated.

[sogoesit] 30/12/2015 17:24

Okidoke; thanks for that EI.
(Am long RDSB and BG underlying, as entry to RDSB, but short oil (WTI and Brent) only small positions)

[essentialinvestor] 30/12/2015 17:20

The best bearish case I have read is from Jim Chanos, who is or at
least was short Shell, so any comments need to be viewed in that context.
However his view on the LNG price outlook (ex USA) and
how he sees that market developing, may be worth at least some consideration.

On the short term oil price, hp, who regularly posts on the SHA board is
very astute and has made some great calls, he works in the industry as well.
He posted his latest thoughts on oil today.

Is BG a good deal on current terms?, we will only know that long after completion.