Shell Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 17/12/2015 08:39

Rising dollar, falling oil price, not rocket science and She'll pursuing the bid, seems crazy to me.

[montyhedge] 17/12/2015 08:17

Why are they pursuing this, with oil looking like going below $30 coming weeks.

[montyhedge] 16/12/2015 20:56

Oil done 5% wow.

[montyhedge] 16/12/2015 18:04

Sorry guys I mean payment day.

[montyhedge] 16/12/2015 18:02

Are they ex div 18th Dec ?

[holts] 16/12/2015 11:36

have they anounced the exchange rate for div yet ?

[muffinhead] 15/12/2015 13:43

The only chart you need for Shell takeover of BG

Beautiful British chart!





Give management a big fat lolly

[muffinhead] 15/12/2015 13:41

Beautiful chart

[ianood] 15/12/2015 09:10

WITJ -thankyou. The essential takeaway for me is that Iran needs the IOC's and a period of investment. It is not just a case of backing up the tankers and adding to market over supply as commentators would have us believe.

[nw99] 15/12/2015 08:38

Bought in again here

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/12/2015 07:49

Thanks ianood.

I was talking bollards though, Iran exports dropped on sanctions of course to 1m barrel per day.


They now want exports back up and this is the market concern. Costs required to increase production aren't lifting costs. They need investment from IOCs. IOCs might be hesitant though as sanction lifting comes with possibilities Iran doesn't comply with conditions and sanctions get put back on Iran.

[atlantic57] 15/12/2015 07:37

No one rings a bell when a share hits a bottom , so I guess it is a judgement call.
It is clear from this board that there are very divergent views so you will have to
Back your own judgement.

[moneysage] 14/12/2015 22:07

So when does one hit the buy button next?I was targeting £14.25 but the fact that it got there faster than I expected gets me thinking maybe wait a bit longer.

[ianood] 14/12/2015 20:44

WITJ - that Chatham House article makes for very good reading

[sogoesit] 14/12/2015 19:53

It's not improbable that Iran's cost of production (or lifting costs) are anything more than $1.50/bbl.
After all it's an internalised economy, with probably very cheap labour costs and who knows what their real exchange rate is.
I would think Saudi Arabia's lifting costs are no more than $2/bbl so Iran's could well be less given its economic structure.

[nigthepig] 14/12/2015 17:52

Myretirementfund - I take it you have little in depth knowledge of the oil industry and the infrastructure it takes to produce the oil. I admit there is oil awash at the moment and all over the place. But this situation will improve (probably after it has got even worse first).

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/12/2015 17:15

These days non-OPEC production is much more significant and non-OPEC costs are much higher than Iran and Saudi.

Russia produces about the same amount of oil as Saudi Arabia and Russian costs are about $25/barrel and Russian Artic costs about $100/barrel. North Sea costs are about $35 I think.

Anyway Chatham House says we've heard it all before from Iran about how they are going to grow production. Iranian oil production has actually been pretty flat since 1990. The reality is they need massive investment and aren't going to get it unless they improve the terms offered to the IOCs. Their aging oil fields need capital and modern recovery techniques from the IOCs. It doesn't help that surging Iranian consumption is eating into their ability to export.


Chatham House Research Paper on Prospects for Iranian Oil (March 2015):

[montyhedge] 14/12/2015 16:35

Now talk of Libya coming, 1m barrels, we will be swimming in oil soon.

[imperial3] 14/12/2015 16:30

So therefore the Iranians will pump out whatever they want,with the price being a side show, as far as they are concerned.$10 a barrel would not appear to ruffle their feathers apparently.If this does not dismay other OPEC members,let alone what the Russians and Saudi will do,in this downward spiral.This could last a lot longer then they are all prepared to admit.

[my retirement fund] 14/12/2015 16:12

It comes out of the ground and I doubt it costs that much in electricity to power a old rusty nodding donkey, especially in a country where energy costs are already near zero.

I don't see why it would be much more than a dollar or so in production costs.