Shell Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 27/2/2020 12:32

Cheers to our health one and all

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 12:31

Well I gave up regular drinking last year (blood pressure)
might have a glass of something tonight though! ).

[spud] 27/2/2020 12:20

It's being whipped up into approaching mass hysteria by the irresponsible media atm and I think we'll look back in 6 months and wonder about the current Market over-reaction.

I'm buying stocks on a monthly drip so as to even out the mad drops we are seeing atm and to take advantage of the future reality check which will inevitably come when the Market acknowledges its over-reaction.

spud

[alex1621] 27/2/2020 12:17

I agree, but I don't think that time has come yet.

[loganair] 27/2/2020 12:16

'Panic Premium' is a good time to buy shares.

[tornado12] 27/2/2020 12:15

Those lousy Chinese have know of this problem since December but it already spread before the world was informed. Only US for me is a bit strange ... remember a lot of people also suffering from flu at same time but no one thinks anything about that do they !!

[tornado12] 27/2/2020 12:13

FTSE going to 6500 defo ! I’m travelling across EU now and you see the fear factor in people and security ... the fear will take over in short term

[loganair] 27/2/2020 12:12

If one is over 80 then there is a 15% chance of mortality while if under 50 have around 0.2%.

[montyhedge] 27/2/2020 12:11

Perhaps they put airports in lockdown for two weeks, to try and stop the spread.

[maywillow] 27/2/2020 12:10

Dow set to drop 300 points on report of first US coronavirus case of unknown origin
Published Wed, Feb 26 20206:01 PM ESTUpdated 44 min ago
Fred Imbert
@foimbert
Key Points

Futures slipped after the CDC confirmed the first U.S. coronavirus case of unknown origin in Northern California, indicating possible “community spread” of the disease.
The CDC doesn’t know exactly how the patient, a California resident, contracted the virus.

[zho] 27/2/2020 12:05

loganair - mortality from flu is reckoned to be about 0.1%, whereas with coronavirus it's around 2% - more than an order of magnitude greater. That's why it's potentially much more of a problem than flu.

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 12:03

adg, there is a rule of thumb in virilogy that usually the more contagious
a virus the less virilent it is - common cold as a prime example. Obvs
there are always exceptions.

So I'm hoping reported infections are heavily weighted to the
severe cases and the majority are either sub clinical or very mild - no medical
attention sought so not counted in stats. The epidemiologists do usually attempt
to factor that in on their modelling, hopefully it's well under 1%.

[loganair] 27/2/2020 12:00

To put some perspective in when it comes to the 'cornavirus' - in the UK in a good year around 1,500 people die of the standard flu, in an average year 2,500 and in a bad year 3,500 people die of the flu...and this is just the UK.

World wide over 250,000 people die each year of the standard flu virus.

[montyhedge] 27/2/2020 11:59

I don't believe anything Chinese say they contribute to WHO that's why they won't call it a pandemic, because economically hits the Chinese harder in my opinion.Some reckon Chinese knew about this last November.

[adg] 27/2/2020 11:56

40% infection rate is unlikely though (god forbid)

There is a feeling of mass hysteria being whipped up - i am 80%+ in cash and Shell and BP are becoming no-brainers to me for yield - even if there is further to drop it is a screaming buy at these levels (given a modicum of patience)

Check out worldwide mortality rate for influenza over the years, some countries as high as 4%, typically it seems to be about 0.2%

Also a vaccine may well be fast-tracked through regulatory channels in the coming weeks - imagine what that announcement would do?

[crossing_the_rubicon] 27/2/2020 11:50

It's spreading in hot countries now though so why will Spring/Summer bring us any respite?

[tornado12] 27/2/2020 11:48

Virus will spread just like the flu. Won’t be gone until northern hemisphere is in Spring so hard hats on at least until Mid April IMO. Will make financial hay while it’s here but the reason is bad news for human life. This is the exact crisis that can change again the business & investment approach for the next 10s yrs. Globalisation will suffer

[crossing_the_rubicon] 27/2/2020 11:48

"If the mortality rate were high then yes this is a big deal - its 2% FFS!"

2% Fatality rate based on Chinese official numbers.

Do you believe the Chinese numbers?

I certainly don't.



"Smoking factor affecting lungs. Older people with long history of smoking. Is it politically correct to say this"


No evidence as far as I've seen that smoking affects your chances.
Peak prosperity (on Youtube - a Doctor,Pathologism his specialty) looked at such fairly recently...


It'll be the less than 0% spare capacity that will see Death rates soar.
In some cases up to 18%+ fatality rates.
(Peak Prosperity)

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 11:32

Monty, paid for the PCV13 in Woking Boots 3 weeks ago. My local branches did not offer it.
It provides no immunity against CV19, or whatever this new virus is called.


Edit - COVID-19.

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 11:30

And yes just underscore the point on A&E, anyone who is familiar with accident and
emergency in the UK (my other half works in healthcare) will be aware there is less than 0
spare capacity.

So if you are unlucky enough to need urgent attention for another condition during
a widespread outbreak, that also has potentially significant repercussions.

[montyhedge] 27/2/2020 11:30

Get a pneumonia jab, to be safe.