Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 21/2/2020 11:44

montyhedge
21 Feb '20 - 11:36 - 9894 of 9894
0 0 0
I thought you boys filtered me obviously not.

NOT ALL

SOME HAVE TO PUT SOME OF YOUR GUESSES INTO PROSPECTIVE OR REALITY
AS SOME OF YOUR ONE LINERS TEND TO BE UNSUPPORTATIVE

[montyhedge] 21/2/2020 11:36

I thought you boys filtered me obviously not.

[beckers2008] 21/2/2020 11:31

Thank you Waldron.

[beckers2008] 21/2/2020 10:44

Interesting times for both RDSA & RDSB, never invested in the black stuff and I know what's it's like to lose money and see the share price drop away, so my sympathies to all holders.
I am a naive regarding O&G and trying to grapple if there is any value here, having sold all of my large holdings on 4th Feb so luckily cash in the bank!
Can someone point out what is the difference and/or advantages if any, between a ‘A’ holder and a ‘B’ holder, many thanks in advance.

[waldron] 21/2/2020 10:43

stevenrevell
21 Feb '20 - 10:39 - 9887 of 9887
0 0 0
Hi Waldron do u think she’ll will cut its dividend

THROUGH OUT THE LAST 75 YEARS SHELL HAS PAID A DIVIDEND SO IN MY VIEW IT WOULD BE
VERY UNLIKELY THAT IT WOULD CUT

[stun12] 21/2/2020 10:41

Quite yieldy here. Looks like a long term lockup situation to me as I can't imagine Shell cutting its divi.

[stevenrevell] 21/2/2020 10:39

Hi Waldron do u think she'll will cut its dividend

[waldron] 21/2/2020 10:20

montyhedge
21 Feb '20 - 10:10 - 9882 of 9885
0 0 2
If these figures disappoint, then 2016 low.
Buybacks helping to hold price.


The buybacks might be a temporary support for the rdsa share price

but not for rdsb as very few subject to buybacks

Still holding up well in the 1875 to 1975p BOX

WHAT A BUYING OPPORTUNITY IF IT TEMPORARILY FALLS INTO THE 1575 to 1875p BOX

ALAS MANY STRONG SUPPORTS IN BETWEEN

Support1: 1901.80 Support2: 1582.30

[montyhedge] 21/2/2020 10:13

You know analysts are about has useful has a chocolate tea pot.

[the grumpy old men] 21/2/2020 10:12

RDSB UBS Buy 2,450.00 - Unchanged

BP. UBS Buy 570.00 - Unchanged

[spud] 21/2/2020 10:10

Looking that way Monte! Despite only having an interest in this going up, you've been consistently right here. Perhaps a little more humility in yer posts might garner more support though...spud

[montyhedge] 21/2/2020 10:10

If these figures disappoint, then 2016 low.Buybacks helping to hold price.

[the grumpy old men] 21/2/2020 10:08

Royal Dutch Shell advance notice of Q1 2020 results announcement
Email Print Friendly Share
February 21, 2020 04:46 ET | Source: Royal Dutch Shell

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

Notice of Results

The Hague, February 21st 2020 - On Thursday April 30th 2020 at 07:00 BST (08:00 CEST and 02:00 EDT) Royal Dutch Shell plc will release its first quarter results and first quarter interim dividend announcement for 2020.

These announcements will be available on

[montyhedge] 21/2/2020 09:58

1775p is a given in my book.

[essentialinvestor] 21/2/2020 08:54

Starting to look like it's breaking out beyond China?.

[waldron] 21/2/2020 07:11

European stocks set for muted open as coronavirus spreads
Published Fri, Feb 21 20201:50 AM EST
Ryan Browne
@Ryan_Browne_




European stocks are set to open mixed on Friday, as investors monitor the latest developments in the coronavirus outbreak.


Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen falling 5 points to 7,439, Germany’s DAX down 20 points at 13,686 and France’s CAC off by 13 points at 6,068, according to IG index data.

[garycook] 21/2/2020 02:29

fjgooner,Wrong thread for MCRO.Take your feud with Montyhedge to the MCRO thread.Better still just filter MH !!!

[fjgooner] 20/2/2020 22:15

@Waldron post 9872 on Total.

I'm quite sure that you know that Shell is pursuing rather similar policies and strategies.

Both Total and Shell are great examples to the rest of the sector.

[fjgooner] 20/2/2020 21:52

To make some extra money, I'm re-shorting the suffering stock MCRO.

I made a fortune on it earlier this month.

All brokers have been massively cutting share price target forecasts this month.

A note today from UBS says "Revenue Growth Continues To Thwart Micro Focus".

Micro Focus downgraded to ‘neutral’; as UBS predicts ‘long and difficult road ahead’

The bank said it saw “no near-term catalyst” for the share price as the troubled software group continued its restructuring efforts

Credit Suisse cut its price target to 630p and put an underperform investment rating on Micro Focus. That seems generous given the recent dire results and this week's downgrades by Moody's and S&P as above.

Jefferies International, Barclays Capital and JP Morgan Cazenove have all also slashed their price targets during the last fortnight.

Current price around 800p. My next target for MCRO is 500p.

Ultimately, 0p is possible in my view.

A massive short opportunity.

[waldron] 20/2/2020 20:03

Ignore BP's Noise, Total Is Giving The Real Signal
Feb. 20, 2020 2:24 PM ET|
5 comments
|
About: TOTAL S.A. (TOT), TTFNF, Includes: BP, RDS.A, RDS.B
The Global Investor
The Global Investor
Long/short equity, portfolio strategy
(579 followers)
Summary

Total continues to provide a strong dividend yield, backed by strong cash flows, from an increasingly diversified energy portfolio.

Total is well positioned for the Energy Transition thanks to its leading portfolio in lower carbon energies.

Strong 2019 results highlight management's bet on low-carbon is already paying off, putting it ahead of rivals BP and Shell.

BP's new CEO recently gave a flashy presentation on its plan to set a course to "net zero" by 2050. Compared to BP's promises however, French supermajor Total (TOT) already has in place a very strongly positioned portfolio to meet the energy transition. Total's portfolio is similar to Shell's, except it has a lower cost base and a higher dividend yield. Total's deal with Adani gas last year gives it a very strong exposure to the growing gas market in India. This deal compliments Total's existing long held renewables and battery investments. As an energy stock, Total's investment case is very strong.
2019 Results

At the company's recent 2019 results presentation, aside from a dramatic video of an equipment failure at an oil rig offshore Angola - seemed to be a good metaphor for the challenges facing the industry now and, in the future - management focused on two areas that The Global Investor believes will dominate the debate for the energy sector. These issues are the modernization of the existing business through the deployment of digital techniques, and how a low carbon business can be grown profitably at scale.

Regarding digital, Total is still in the early stages meaning there's potential upside to its current $1.5bn productivity ambition. In terms of low carbon, Total is already making £300m of cashflow from its clean businesses and that's very encouraging and shows why Total is in the lead. Total's early entry into clean energy is paying off and delivering better than expected results.

Most institutional investors need exposure to the energy sector, for benchmarking reasons, but with environmental, social and governance demands growing every day in the markets, investors are dumping oil & gas exposures as much as they can, as shown by the fact that energy was the worst performing stock market sector in 2019. Total's renewables business provides a strong reason to hold or buy this stock, to maintain sector exposure but avoid the move away from oil.

Total's profitability, coupled with its leading position with regard to the energy transition shows the two issues are not mutually exclusive.

Think tank Carbon Tracker recently modelled how oil companies might perform under an environment in which greater regulation of the industry is introduced as governments rush to cap emissions to help the climate change situation. While the global investor doesn't see this as a major risk in the new 2-3 years (but the risks do increase as time goes by) Carbon Tracker's analyses which companies might do better under a long-term lower-oil price situation. The report noted:

"European oil majors are more reflective of the industry average in terms of risk, ranging from BP and Repsol with around 10 per cent greater sensitivity, to Shell at the industry average, and Total, Eni and Equinor with around 10 per cent lower sensitivity,"

Along with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.B) and BP (NYSE:BP), Total pays a dividend yield of above 6 per cent (not including share buybacks) and trades on a similar P/E ratio as its Dutch and British peers. Total though showed more resilience through the 2019 price environment, with cash flow from operations flat on the year before at $24.7bn, although adjusted net income was down 13 per cent year on year. This result was comparatively better than both Shell and BP.

Why?

Part of this performance is due to the fact that Total is comparatively advanced on the energy transition front, if we include gas, a less carbon-intensive option compared to coal. Its lower-carbon division, integrated gas, renewables and power - iGRP- produced cash flow of $3.7bn in 2019, up from $2.1bn the year before. The driver here was largely the added gas capacity, however Total also doubled the size of its renewables portfolio in 2019. The renewables portfolio alone contributed cash flow of some $200m. During the fourth quarter results presentation Total chief executive Patrick Pouyanné said the supermajor's goal was to grow this figure to $1bn by 2025. Total is on the way to achieving this, it was picked to build an 800 megawatt solar plant in Qatar. The group is also working on battery technologies.

As well as expanding its gas offering, Total is planning to keep passing shareholders more cash. The 2019 dividend increased by 5 per cent to €2.68 per share. 2020 will see around $2bn of share buybacks if oil can achieve an average price of $60/bbl. At the time of writing, Brent crude oil is trading at $56/bbl, as coronavirus worries have hit oil spot prices hard since early January.

Scope 1 and 2 emissions

Investors in resource stocks will have heard the term Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions a lot recently. Targets on Scope 1 and 2 emissions, which are direct emissions from operations and those from power suppliers, respectively, are widespread among most large resource companies now, but scope 3, the emissions linked to companies' own products, burned by customers, is where the competition is at now. Total is aiming to get its scope 1 and 2 emissions to under 40m tons by 2025, from 41.5m tons in 2019. Given its renewable energy portfolio, Total's weighted average scope 3 emissions are reduced as renewables produce zero emissions at the scope 3 level. As Total accelerates its low carbon businesses and cleans up its fossil fuel production with increased digital oversight of its operations, The Global Investor believes Total's investment proposition is the strongest of all energy supermajors.

Risks

Clearly, Total is still predominately an oil and gas company. Global gas prices have been trending down and seem to be well supplied in the medium term. The trend for governments and consumers in the West to make the shift away from oil seems to be picking up pace. However, The Global Investor believes that as oil project funding gets harder and capital expenditure is moved away from the oil patch, this only sets us up a bullish oil price scenario further down the line, especially as oil demand growth in Emerging Markets appears to be in no danger of slowing down any time soon.

For investors who can play the long/short game, it's worth considering shorting another supermajor against the long position in Total. I believe Total will be the best supermajor performer in the medium term, but the risk of oil & gas divestiture trend continuing for a while is real. This divestiture trend will probably end when the oil price bull market returns as I expect, because as they say "the cure for low prices is low prices".

[waldron] 20/2/2020 17:59

SO NO B BUYBACKS TODAY ONLY A BUYBACKS AGAIN AND AGAIN






Boy o boy no matter what some say these buybacks seem not to be giving support to the rdsb share price