Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 27/1/2019 20:33

very wise

i try to do a similar operation towards the end of the french tax year

alas the timing is not always to my liking

[waldron] 27/1/2019 19:46

Must admit i could do with an upward movement of 10 to 20pc but not just for shell

i believe you will be well pleased with your recent buys, but if another dip,it will be again another buying opportunity
and i will have ti wait and be content with the divi payouts

roll on next thursday

cheers

ps i intend taking profits off the table and building up a cash cushion just as a precaution

more for my own peace of mind than a Machiavellian agenda

[florenceorbis] 27/1/2019 12:38

I must admit its not really clear whether they will truly continue or stop divi withholding tax for individuals

i guess they will not be following uk in this

In france dividends are taxed at source and nicely recorded by the bank

[ariane] 27/1/2019 11:24

I Presume that the withholding tax on dividends for individuals will continue so i now expect the necessity of A and B shares will persist with a premium for B


Nothing etched in stone though as yet

[maywillow] 27/1/2019 09:39

With production cuts orchestrated by Opec taking hold and US shale drillers promising to rein in spending, hedge funds boosted their wagers on increasing Brent crude prices by 17% in the week ended January 22.


Bloomberg/New York

Oil’s bulls are getting bolder.
With production cuts orchestrated by Opec taking hold and US shale drillers promising to rein in spending, hedge funds boosted wagers on increasing Brent crude prices by 17% in the week ended January 22. That was the biggest increase since August. Meanwhile, short-selling bets have plunged by 36% this month, the biggest three-week drop in about a year.
Crude prices have recovered a third of 2018’s late-year losses in a rally that’s pushed the global benchmark up more than 20% since Christmas Eve. In the past few days, turmoil in Venezuela, holder of the world’s biggest oil reserves, added some momentum to the rebound.
“Investors are continuing to get more constructive,” said Brian Kessens, who manages $16bn in energy investments for Kansas-based money manager Tortoise. “The risks on the upside are much more likely than the risks of going lower from here. We don’t see much ‘down’ for oil right now.”
Whether investors have jumped on board just in time or overshot the mark remains to be seen. The price recovery stalled in recent days as the US-China trade dispute dragged on and the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth. Brent suffered its first weekly loss for the year.
“The market for the time being is giving Opec and Russia the benefit of the doubt,” said Tamar Essner, an analyst with Nasdaq Inc in New York. “Now, the big wild card is what happens with demand. We’re sort of stuck in this tight range until we get a bit more clarity.”
Net-long wagers – the difference between bets on a Brent increase and wagers on a decline – rose by 17% for the week ended January 22 to 202,934 options and futures contracts, according to data released on Friday by ICE Futures Europe. Longs climbed 2.7% to the highest in almost two months. Shorts slumped 26%.
Data on hedge fund sentiment for the US benchmark price, West Texas Intermediate, weren’t available this week because of the US government shutdown.

[maywillow] 27/1/2019 09:25

from the motley fool

This i like to believe


Why I think the FTSE 100 could be worth 9,000+ points

Peter Stephens | Sunday, 27th January, 2019
Image source: Getty Images.

Having reached an all-time high of almost 7,900 points last year, many investors may consider the FTSE 100 is still relatively high today. It trades at around 1,000 points below its record high, which is approximately the same level as 20 years ago.

During the last two decades, the index has failed to deliver on the growth potential many investors have felt it offers. Now, though, it may be worth significantly more than its current price level. As such, it could offer a number of appealing investment opportunities for the long term.
Valuation

At the present time, the FTSE 100 has a dividend yield of around 4.6%. Compared to its historic average yield of between 3% and 3.5%, that’s exceptionally high. In fact, it’s only been higher than its current level in one other time period during the last 20 years. That occurred in 2008/09 when the financial crisis was in full swing and the index’s dividend yield increased to 5.5%.

Back then, though, there were severe doubts that the index’s major constituents would be able to deliver dividends over the near term. As such, it could be argued that today is a more appealing period in which to invest in the index, since the prospects for the world economy appear to be stronger than they were during the financial crisis.

Assuming that the index reverts to its long-term average yield of 3-3.5%, it could trade as high as between 9,000 and 10,500 points. This would represent a rise of between 30% and 52% versus its current price level, which suggests the FTSE 100 has investment appeal based on its current valuation.
Catalysts

In terms of what could propel it to a significantly higher level, the outlook for the world economy continues to be relatively robust. Although there are fears surrounding growth in China, as well as the impact of US interest rate rises, the IMF forecasts world GDP growth will be 3.5% in 2019. Furthermore, the UK economy is expected to grow by 1.5% this year, which is ahead of a number of EU nations such as Germany and Italy, which are expected to grow by 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively, in 2019.

As such, it could be argued that potential risks from Brexit are fully priced into the index. And since the majority of income generated by its constituents comes from international markets, a growing world economy may mean that the FTSE 100 enjoys a period of stronger performance than many investors are anticipating.

As ever, stock markets move in cycles. While the FTSE 100 may be viewed as being in a downtrend at present, after falling by around 1,000 points in eight months, for long-term investors it could offer up a buying opportunity. With such a low valuation, it may present a high income return, as well as an impressive capital growth outlook over the coming years. Due to this, now could be the right time to invest in a diverse range of shares for the long term.

[bigbigdave] 27/1/2019 08:22

Shell is set to report bumper profits this week, driven by higher oil and gas prices and more efficient spending.

[the grumpy old men] 26/1/2019 14:01

FT

Brussels to sue UK over tax breaks for commodities traders
Commission goes to ECJ over City of London creating VAT loophole
The reality is that, since joining, the UK has been an economic cornerstone of the EU



Jim Brunsden and Mehreen Khan in Brussels January 23, 2019
FT

Brussels is to sue the UK in Europe’s highest court over tax breaks for commodities traders, according to EU diplomats briefed on the plans, escalating a battle that Britain said risked damaging the post-Brexit competitiveness of the City of London.

The European Commission is bringing the case in the European Court of Justice just over two months before Britain is due to leave the EU, potentially without agreeing an exit deal. However, the withdrawal treaty that Theresa May has brokered with Brussels means the UK would have to abide by ECJ rulings in cases launched while it was a member or during a 21-month transition period.

Brussels’ move to try to limit how the UK applies value added tax exemptions escalates a dispute that began last year when Brussels challenged the UK on rules dating back to the 1970s.

Under the rules, Britain has a right to apply a zero VAT rate to commodities contracts traded on “terminal markets” such as the London Metal Exchange.

Brussels argues that the UK has stealthily widened the exemption over time, creating a tax loophole that unfairly boosts the City of London at the expense of other EU financial centres. London is one of the largest global centres for commodities trading.

The commission declined to comment but last year said the UK had “extended the scope of the measure considerably . . .R01;meaning that it is no longer limited to trading in the commodities as originally covered”.

Brussels contends that the UK has amended the original exemption at least eight times without seeking advice from the EU, so that it now includes trading commodity options and futures contracts.
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Britain has consistently rebuffed the commission’s claims that the changes are illegal, saying its approach is in line with EU “standstill221; rules that allow the zero rate because it was applied before a 1977 cut-off date.

The case comes at an acutely sensitive moment in Brexit talks, following the overwhelming parliamentary defeat of Mrs May’s deal and amid deep splits in the UK parliament over how to proceed. Mrs May is due to face a further crucial vote on her Brexit plans in the House of Commons next week.

It also underlines the complex task facing the UK Treasury to disentangle Britain and its businesses from an EU VAT system that has developed over decades.

While tax rates are mainly set at national level, Brussels tries to restrict how far governments can go in lowering VAT rates to lure business, while allowing countries to introduce specific carve-outs.

Brussels opened “infringement proceedings” against the UK on the issue last year, following talks between EU and UK officials dating back to 2015.

The UK government declined to comment but officials have previously said the VAT treatment was “vital” to ensure the City remained a world-leading hub for commodities trading.

[the grumpy old men] 26/1/2019 11:44

Shell Set To Book Highest Profit Since 2014
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 25, 2019, 8:00 PM CST Cash

Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) is expected to report on January 31 its highest annual profit since 2014, although the oil price plunge late last year may hit Q4 earnings.

Shell is forecast to report next Thursday a 39-percent yearly jump in earnings on a current cost of supplies (CCS) basis—its closest metric to a net profit closely watched by analysts—to US$21.9 billion, Press Association reports.

If Shell meets those estimates, it would book its highest annual profit since oil prices started crashing in 2014. Yet, fourth-quarter earnings may fall below expectations and below the Q3 profit, due to the massive sell-offs in oil between October and December last year, analysts say.

According to analyst estimates of more than 20 analysts, the consensus for full-year 2018 CCS earnings is US$20.980 billion, with a high of US$21.989 billion and a low of US$20.325 billion.

Fourth-quarter earnings estimates range from US$4.635 billion to US$6.273 billion, with the consensus at US$5.280 billion.

As widely expected, higher oil prices boosted earnings and cash flows at Shell in the third quarter in a somewhat mixed results release, which highlighted strong cash flow generation and continued share buybacks.

Despite slightly missing estimates, Shell’s earnings in Q3 were the highest in four years on the back of rising oil prices.

“Shell will find it tough to match the third quarter’s (Q3) storming quarter, which saw its highest adjusted cash flow in over ten years. The Q4 is currently expected to be very strong as well, but given recent volatility and the rout in the oil price, things may not turn out as well as hoped,” trading provider IG said.

Related: French Total To Enter Saudi Downstream Business

According to the Share Centre: “[G]iven the anticipation of higher supplies from shale and Iranian oil supplies not expecting to fall back as dramatically as previously expected, oil prices during the final quarter wobbled which will no doubt hit Shell’s numbers.”

“Investors though will still expect solid free cash flows and hope that gearing level shave down a little further. For 2018 as a whole revenues and profits should easily breach previous highs set back in 2013 especially since costs have been cut back dramatically,” the Share Centre said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[knights] 26/1/2019 08:42

I thought they cancelled the script dividend program a while ago?

[steve73] 26/1/2019 08:40

Scrip dividends issuing additional shares in lieu of cash dividends does make sense when there is insufficient cash flow to meet the cash in full, but it does result in existing shareholders (who chose to take the cash) being a little diluted.

These share buyback are trying to reverse the resultant increases of share number. It surprises me that they are continuing with the scrip dividend alternative whilst they are buying back though.

IMO they should stop the Scrips at this stage.

[adrian j boris] 25/1/2019 21:38

what on earth started this ranting and raving by WBecki

[wbecki] 25/1/2019 20:03

"sarkasm
25 Jan '19 - 19:52 - 4707 of 4708 (Filtered) "

No idea what you're saying pillow biter.

You're both Remoaners clearly then!

[wbecki] 25/1/2019 20:03

You claimed my profile was fake.

"YOU FILED A FALSE PROFILE
IT IS NOT SPOT ON
the truth is not half the truth"


As is yours as it's absent profile data!!!
(Despite you being a blue paid up poster - why no profile details yourside then?)

No profile is as bad as the odd piece of info included to be ironic!!!