Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 09/11/2018 15:39

A BUYING OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME PERHAPS

[imperial3] 09/11/2018 15:31

As the price of oil falls,nearly always the share price tends to drop.The outlook does not appear to be encouraging so it seems.

[fjgooner] 09/11/2018 11:51

I suspect that oil be going back up over the next few weeks from todays low Brent/WTI levels of around $69.57/$59.67 after OPEC meet in Abu Dhabi on Sunday where I'd expect them to informally discuss being turned over by the Iranian sanction waiver deceit.

The next main decision-making meeting of OPEC will be in 4 weeks' time in Vienna - output cuts for 2019 have surely got to be on the cards from that point onwards given the current build of inventories. Keeping clearly below 5-year average global inventories will remain a key objective.

The Saudis will also now surely pressure other OPEC members (notably Iraq) that either they toe the party line going forward with any new consensus or that OPEC can be allowed to fall apart, to be replaced by a Saudi/Russian partnership that will act as a de-facto swing producer to maintain market discipline - with the confidence to completely disregard US interference for short-term political purposes.

Expect the "pump all we can" position to cease after this weekend and formal guidance to be firmed for 2019 by December 8th in Vienna.

In the meantime, as Shell shareholders, we can be pleased with our status as an integrated producer and with a huge exposure to LNG as prices of the latter have been making great gains over the last couple of weeks.

Have a great weekend.

FJ

[la forge] 09/11/2018 11:48

Is the Royal Dutch Shell share price heading for 3,500p?

Rupert Hargreaves | Friday, 9th November, 2018 | More on: RDSB
Image source: Getty Images.

If you had been lucky enough to buy shares in Royal Dutch Shell (LSE: RDSB) on the 10th of January 2016, today you would be sitting on capital gains of 82%.

Including dividends, investors have received the total return of 110% over this period, making Shell one of the best-performing stocks in the FTSE 100, outperforming the broader index by more than 80%.

After these gains, it might seem as if shares in this oil giant have run out of steam. But I believe they still have plenty more in the tank. Here’s why.
Different business

If you look at a Shell stock chart going back to the year 2000, you will see that the highest price the stock has achieved is 2,800p (March 2018) surpassing the previous high of 2,572p reached in November 2014, just before the price of oil collapsed.

I believe the reason why the share price printed a new all-time high this year is that Shell today is a fundamentally different business than it was in 2014. Over the past two-and-a-half years, the company has been on an intensive rehabilitation programme. Costs have been slashed, and all projects have been re-evaluated, so that every single dollar spent is now spent effectively. Management has tried to eliminate almost all waste in the business’s budgets, and this is now paying off.

At the beginning of November, the company reported a 35% increase in its third-quarter earnings. Earnings on a current cost of supply basis hit $5.6bn in the three months to September 30. Based on the firm’s results for the first nine months of 2018, analysts believe the group is on track to report the total net profit for the year of $23.5bn, on revenues of $392bn.

By comparing the above numbers to those of 2013/2014, when the price of oil was around $100 a barrel, we can see just how far the company has come over the past three years. In 2013, the group reported revenues of $451bn, but a net profit of only $16.3bn. In 2014, it booked a net profit of $15bn, on sales of $412bn.

In other words, the company is generating nearly 100% more profit for every $1 of sales it achieves today, compared to 2013, even though the price of oil is still around 40% lower.
Earnings surge

These numbers tell me that if the price of oil does return to $100 a barrel, Shell’s earnings could surge, which would justify a significantly higher share price.

How much higher can it go? Well, according to City analysts, Shell is expected to report a net profit margin of approximately 7% in 2019. I’m assuming that if the price of oil returns to $100 a barrel, Shell’s revenue will move back up to $451bn. A profit margin of 7% on this figure implies a net profit of around $32bn, or $3.80 per share (290p). These numbers exclude the impact any share repurchases might have on the number of shares outstanding.

Historically, shares in Shell have changed hands at an average P/E of around 12.12 times projected earnings per share of 290p and implies a potential share price of 3,480p.

So overall, my figures show that if the price of oil continues to move higher, shares in Shell could add a further 42% from current levels, and that’s excluding dividend payments. With these gains still on offer, I’m a buyer of the stock today.

[montyhedge] 09/11/2018 08:30

I like IAG holding company for British Airways's, they benefit from falling oil, so I have a pair trade Rdsb if oil goes up great and IAG if oil goes down, great. Easy really, lol.

[waldron] 08/11/2018 17:29

Total
51.43 -0.58%


Engie
12.275 -1.37%

Orange
14.63 +0.93%

FTSE 100
7,140.68 +0.33%
Dow Jones
26,252.27 +0.27%
CAC 40
5,131.45 -0.13%



Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 71.26 -1.12%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.65 +0.10%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.53 -0.84%


BP
529 -2.81%


Shell A
2,423.5 -0.29%


Shell B
2,465 -0.34%

[waldron] 08/11/2018 16:20

enters bear market territory after rapid one-month decline
Published 4 hours ago | Updated 7 min ago
Tom DiChristopher
@tdichristopher




Key Points

U.S. crude falls more than 20 percent from its four-year high last month, putting the contract in bear market territory.
U.S. crude output is predicted to break through 12 million barrels per day by mid-2019.
China’s October crude imports hit a record 9.61 million barrels per day.

[waldron] 07/11/2018 17:53

Total
51.73 +1.67%


Engie
12.445 +3.54%

Orange
14.495 +2.87%

FTSE 100
7,117.28 +1.09%
Dow Jones
25,985.73 +1.37%
CAC 40
5,137.94 +1.24%


BP
544.3 +0.87%


Shell A
2,430.5 +0.83%


Shell B
2,473.5 +0.73%

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 71.95 +0.35%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.65 -2.06%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.54 +0.20%

[waldron] 06/11/2018 17:15

Total
50.88 -1.01%


Engie
12.02 -0.29%

Orange
14.09 -0.49%

FTSE 100
7,040.68 -0.89%
Dow Jones
25,586.24 +0.49%
CAC 40
5,075.19 -0.51%


BP
539.6 -0.46%


Shell A
2,410.5 -1.01%


Shell B
2,455.5 -1.11%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 71.38 -1.71%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.67 -0.82%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.55 -0.22%

[xxxxxy] 06/11/2018 07:56

Iran is still exporting oil as sanctions deadline passes

US sanctions have failed so far to shut down Iranian oil exports, and eight countries have been granted temporary exemptions to allow them to buy from Tehran without fear of punishment even after the deadline to halt all purchases has passed.

Oil industry analysts estimate that Iran sold about 1.5 million barrels a day on world markets in October, even as it braced for the sanctions to take full effect starting Monday.




CNN

[waldron] 05/11/2018 17:24

Total
51.4 +2.29%


Engie
12.055 +1.22%

Orange
14.16 +1.47%

FTSE 100
7,103.84 +0.14%
Dow Jones
25,399.26 +0.51%
CAC 40
5,101.39 -0.01%



Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 73.26 +0.98%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.70 +0.09%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.54 +7.37%



BP
542.1 +1.65%


Shell A
2,435 +1.35%


Shell B
2,483 +1.12%

[xxxxxy] 05/11/2018 16:40

Love Dividend.

But the niggle is - not increasing. But at least it has never dropped since end of WW2. My understanding.

Dividend good, I must refrain from being greedy.

[the grumpy old men] 05/11/2018 15:27

Announcement date November 1, 2018
Ex-dividend date (see Note 1) November 15, 2018
Record date November 16, 2018
Closing of currency election date (see Note 2) November 30, 2018
Pounds sterling and euro equivalents announcement date December 6, 2018
Payment date December 19, 2018

[tornado12] 05/11/2018 14:46

Yep guaranteeing Shell future divo is the key for me ... keeping the yield > 5,5 % is also winner

[sarkasm] 05/11/2018 10:56

Shell eyes Sao Tome blocks deal

Anglo-Dutch giant in exclusive talks with Kosmos to acquire interests in four blocks as pair widen West Africa exploration alliance

[xxxxxy] 05/11/2018 10:32

Me. Looking for £30+ ish

[fjgooner] 04/11/2018 20:34

Very strong results that haven't been properly reflected in the market yet. Expect a substantial correction to above £28 sooner rather than later.

I note that Goldman Sachs increased their price target by 150p on Friday to £32.80.

[essentialinvestor] 04/11/2018 14:44

Trump's hand was forced by markets with spiralling crude costs,
little wonder he relented on Iran exports.

So Brent back to 65-70 range?. Unless China trade tensions are resolved.