Shell Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 03/5/2018 12:48

Blimey Waldron you are a busy poster. I have this image of you sitting surrounded by telex machines hooked up to Routers and CNN.....

[waldron] 03/5/2018 11:39

great question TWH

I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE FIRST BUY BACKS BEFORE TRYING ANSWER

I BELIEVE IT MIGHT OCCUR ON THE FIRST SUBSTANTIAL DIP TOWARDS 2475
PERHAPS AROUND THE END OF JUNE WHICH WOULD UP share price UNTIL THE NEXT DIP

CERTAINLY THE BUY BACKS WOULD GET MORE EXPENSIVE SO ANY PEOPLE EXPECTING A DIVI
UPGRADE WILL HAVE TO BE PATIENT


WHERES OUR INHOUSE EXPERTS

[the white house] 03/5/2018 11:16

Food for thoughtIf they want to buy back 25 billion pounds worth is that 1000 days at 25m pounds per day. So in ball park figures to fill allocation by 2020 and if they started today they would be buying 1m shares a day. Given that 4/5m is an average would not this amount, given flat Brent price, be enough to produce many, many more up days and few down days, almost providing a 'guarantee' of share price being higher by 2020 & divvi rolling in also..Comments welcome!, especially on stats understanding & likely procedureCheers

[waldron] 03/5/2018 09:34

NOT A TRUE CHARTIST ALEX BUT WE SEEM TO BE MOVING INTO UNCHARTED WATERS AND WITH
EX DIVI DAY SOON TO BE UPON US THE share price MIGHT NOT BREAK THRU THE 2675p RESISTENCE

HAVING SAID THAT ANY SELL OFF MIGHT BE MORE THAN COMPENSATED AND DIVI PAYMENTS IN JUNE
ARE USED TO BUY MORE SHARES IN SHELL

AT THAT TIME PERHAPS THE HIGHER END OF THE 2675 to 2775 will be achieved

concerns might be the US INCREASED EXPORTS TOGETHER WITH HIGHER OPEC PRODUCTION TO
POSSIBLY REPLACE THE IRAN OIL IF SANCTIONS COME INTO FORCE

ALL DEPENDS NOW ON NEWS AND THE PROPENSITY FOR RISK

CHEERS

EDIT truly real comments certainly appreciated

[alexisk] 03/5/2018 09:09

I reckon the share price is now at an all-time high. Any chartists have a view on the chances of a strong further upward breakout?

[waldron] 03/5/2018 08:56

Total
51.79 +0.27%

Engie
14.635 +0.55%

Orange
15.1 -0.26%

FTSE 100
7,538.82 -0.06%
Dow Jones
23,924.98 -0.72%
CAC 40
5,517.4 -0.21%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 73.34 +0.33%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.08 +0.33%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.77 +0.25%




BP
549.1 +0.31%



Shell A
2,547.5 +0.63%

Shell B
2,620 +0.48%


SHELL B CONTINUES TO SIT SNUGLY IN THE 2575 to 2675p BOX

PREMIUM OVER SHELL A NOW HIGHER AT 72.5p

not long now to ex divi day

[florenceorbis] 03/5/2018 07:00

LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: Stocks Seen Lower Ahead Of UK Services PMI
Date : 03/05/2018 @ 06:57
Source : Alliance News

LONDON MARKET EARLY CALL: Stocks Seen Lower Ahead Of UK Services PMI

Stock prices in London are set to pull back from Wednesday's gains to open lower on Thursday, after Wall Street finished in negative territory...

[waldron] 02/5/2018 21:52

Pleased you found it interesting fj

cheers

[fjgooner] 02/5/2018 21:23

A very interesting article above, Waldron.

Many thanks,

FJ.

[waldron] 02/5/2018 18:00

Total
51.65 -1.30%

Engie
14.555 +0.03%

Orange
15.14 +0.17%



FTSE 100
7,543.2 +0.30%
Dow Jones
24,045.06 -0.22%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 73.05 -0.33%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.07 -0.77%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.76 -1.57


CAC 40
5,529.22 +0.16%



BP
547.4 -0.05%



Shell A
2,531.5 +0.38%



Shell B
2,607.5 +0.48%

[waldron] 02/5/2018 17:59

UNLIKE SOME OF THE OTHER OIL MAJORS, SHELL HAS NOT RUSHED TO LOCK IN A DIVIDEND INCREASE.

I BELIEVE THIS WILL GIVE IT MORE FLEXIBILITY TO BETTER JUDGE THE IDEAL MOMENTS TO
PAY DOWN DEBT,START BUYBACKS AND UNDERTAKE CAPEX AND UP PENSION CONTRIBUTIONS AS REQUIRED

SOME INVESTORS WILL BE MORE PLEASED WITH A BUYBACK SO THAT THE TIMING OF CAPITAL GAINS WILL
BE MORE TAX EFFICIENT.

SOME OF US ARE FORCIBLY TAXED ON OUR SHELL DIVIDENDS


SOON BE MAY 10th

you gotta love MAY AND june for the abundance of divi payouts

[waldron] 02/5/2018 17:30

European Company Profits Are Rising, But Where's the Payout?
By Justina Lee
26 avril 2018 à 06:00 UTC+2 Updated on 26 avril 2018 à 11:35 UTC+2

Windfalls for shareholders have fallen as investment recovered
This may be partly why European shares have trailed U.S. peers

Photographer: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg

For years, European stock investors have salivated over the payout their U.S. counterparts bagged from a rush of share buybacks. Even with earnings recovering, it looks like they may still be in for a letdown.

There have been high-profile exceptions recently, such as Unilever NV announcing a 6 billion-euro ($7.3 billion) share repurchase program. But on aggregate, profits distributed to shareholders through dividends or buybacks are near their lowest share of the euro area’s economy since the single currency was created in 1999, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.

That might help explain why, even as the region’s economic and earnings growth started to catch up with the U.S. last year, its stock benchmark slid to a record low last month relative to its U.S. counterpart.
Where Did the Cash Go?

The non-financial sector's payout to shareholders has fallen as a percentage of the euro-area's economy

Source: Eurostat data compiled by Credit Suisse

Note: Investment data measure gross fixed capital formation excluding Ireland. Figures are rolling six-month averages.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc shares fell Thursday as analysts raised concerns about whether the company will be able to afford a planned $25 billion to $30 billion buyback. While French rival Total SA started to repurchase shares in the first quarter, Shell didn’t give any guidance about when its program would begin in its first-quarter earnings presentation.

But it’s not all bad -- at least if you’re not a stock investor. There are signs that with forecast earnings per share reaching the highest since the financial crisis, European companies are prioritizing capital spending and debt repayment first. The prevalence of stock buybacks in the U.S. has stoked criticism that they’re replacing investments that could create jobs and improve economic productivity in the long run.

“We expect capex to increase in Europe actually rather than cash being used to return to shareholders,” said Bibiana Carretero, a portfolio manager at EFG Asset Management in London. “For many years, companies have been focused on becoming more efficient. Now that they’re very efficient, the next phase is starting to grow again.”
Are Buybacks Good?

That’s good news for holders of European credit and the region’s economy, albeit less so for stock investors in the short term, Credit Suisse analysts led by Neville Hill wrote in a note.

In Europe, investment in machinery and equipment has picked up along with orders for German capital goods. Stronger spending is a good sign for the economy because it shows that companies are building up future capacity and could trickle down to capital goods manufacturers and their employees. In contrast, buybacks -- the criticism goes -- only return cash to investors who may not put the money to good use.

“Investing and growing the business is a much better use of corporate revenues than returning that cash to shareholders,” Credit Suisse’s Hill said in an email. It is “likely to mean upward pressure on wages rather than higher incomes for shareholders,” which should theoretically help contain income inequality, he added.

Share repurchases have always been less common in Europe, but the contrast with the U.S. has also become a lot starker as American firms made use of record-low rates and now lower taxes to hand investors a windfall. Constituents of the S&P 500 Index have splurged $4.5 trillion on dividends and buyouts in the five years through March 31, nearly double spending by Stoxx 600 stocks, data compiled by Bloomberg show. European companies’ leverage ratios are also on a downtrend -- the exact opposite of their U.S. counterparts.

However, establishing a relationship between lower payouts to shareholders and rising investment isn’t that simple. While cultural factors such as strong labor representation may be why European companies are more conservative with payouts, ultimately, growth prospects are what determines investment, said Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, research director at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center. In Europe, capital expenditure has been driven by rising capacity utilization coinciding with improving earnings, he added.

As Europe’s corporations and banks continue to recover, it’s possible payouts will rebound, said the Credit Suisse analysts. At the same time, while shareholders -- especially activists -- may be unsuccessfully agitating for higher returns, at least the macro picture this is painting is a rosy one.

“Revenues are strong; profits are strong; investment is strong; and leverage is falling,” the analysts wrote. “At least through this lens, the fundamentals of the corporate sector, for both bond and equity holders, look good.”

[fangorn2] 02/5/2018 15:38

@Ianood

Yes BG buy was inspired (albeit risky and expensive at the time)

[ianood] 02/5/2018 15:12

Fangorn2 - whilst also diversifying towards LNG as well!!

[fangorn2] 02/5/2018 12:54

@Waddie

"NEVER SELL SHELL..."

Absolutely spot on :)

There were some terrific bargains in 1250's at height of POO crisis.

In at 1450 myself for a nibble.

Management here have done a terrific job.

[waldron] 02/5/2018 12:36

Total
52.06 -0.52%


Engie
14.515 -0.24%

Orange
15.08 -0.23%


FTSE 100
7,549.41 +0.39%
Dow Jones
24,099.05 -0.27%
CAC 40
5,530.79 +0.19%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 73.02 -0.37%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.08 -0.37%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.79 -0.32%




BP
549.3 +0.29%



Shell A
2,537 +0.59%



Shell B
2,610.5 +0.60%

[wad collector] 02/5/2018 12:35

Apologies misread the yield figure.

[florenceorbis] 02/5/2018 12:15

INVESTORS CHRONICLE

EXTRACT AS NON SUBSCRIBER

Rising tide lifts BP and Shell

By Alex Newman

In a mixed reporting season for the supermajors, first-quarter numbers for oil and gas behemoths BP (BP.) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) were fairly well received by investors. Predictably, earnings were well up on the same period in 2017, when Brent was selling for less than $50 (£36.6), although cash generation at both London-listed stocks disappointed analyst expectations. That hasn’t stopped the prevailing narrative – a tightening and nervy market for crude – from pushing both shares to multi-year highs.

[chiefbrody] 02/5/2018 11:57

Yup. Yielding Over 5% for newbies and 6,7,8% + for oldies. I really regret not adding a lot more (by my standards) back at 14/15 squid!They'll probably be another chance though as we get these collapses every 10 years or so.

[wad collector] 02/5/2018 11:06

A new High today - at least 7yr high cannot recall earlier highs. And still yielding 7% (assuming maintained !?)
NEVER SELL SHELL...

[waldron] 02/5/2018 08:39

Total
52.07 -0.50%


Engie
14.535 -0.10%

Orange
15.07 -0.30%


FTSE 100
7,547.43 +0.36%
Dow Jones
24,099.05 -0.27%



BP
546 -0.31%



Shell A
2,531.5 +0.38%


Shell B
2,603.5 +0.33%

CAC 40
5,514.89 -0.10%




Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 73.53 +0.33%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.09 +0.18%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.79 -0.36%

[waldron] 02/5/2018 08:32

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) said on Wednesday that its joint venture with China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China's largest offshore oil-and-gas producer, has officially launched the second ethylene cracker at the Nanhai petrochemical complex.

Shell said the CNOOC and Shell Petrochemical Company joint venture has started up several derivative units at the complex and that the remaining units will start up over the coming weeks.

The new ethylene cracker will increase the ethylene capacity at the complex in Huizhou, China, by around 1.2 million metric tons per year, more than doubling the current production level, Shell said.

The facility will include a styrene monomer and propylene oxide plant, which will be the largest in China when it begins operations, the company said.



Write to Oliver Griffin at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 02, 2018 01:36 ET (05:36 GMT)