Shell Share Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 22/12/2015 08:44

Yes and bullish, Shell at this price + dividend, bargain for 2016.

[diku] 22/12/2015 08:42

monty no:1 is here...

[montyhedge] 22/12/2015 08:41

Every hedgie and his dog short, 8.32% dividend will be paid.Cost hedgies a fortune.

[montyhedge] 22/12/2015 08:31

They will maintain the dividend at all costs. Reduce capital spending, borrow the money,. Shell is a cash cow.

[essentialinvestor] 22/12/2015 08:16

Following the Arctic fiasco I am less confident in the judgement
of the BOD.

Read some of the uber bullish pronouncements from Shell on the potential
for the region, and yet just weeks later a complete and utter U turn.

[rcturner2] 22/12/2015 08:12

montyhedge, I bought in here recently.

However is it not the case that the dividend payments are based on oil being above $60? Below that level there is less certainty about the dividend.

[smith99] 22/12/2015 08:11

I hope they do go ahead. The market has priced in for that so with oil not wanting to go much lower than Dec 08. We're all set to start rebuilding the share price again. At the end of the day only shell have the full picture and they are a solid company that make sound decisions and I'm happy to trust them to do the right thing.

[montyhedge] 22/12/2015 08:10

To me seems every hedgie and his dog, short of Shell. Surely with a 8.32% yield and will be paid, it's going to cost them big time if they are wrong, even just paying back the dividend.

[montyhedge] 22/12/2015 07:57

Bloomberg, saying deal not in the bag yet. We live in hope it's not.

[montyhedge] 22/12/2015 07:38

BG would fall to 650p, then pick them up next year.

[fjgooner] 22/12/2015 00:42

imperial3,

If your investment timescale is less than a mere couple of years then perhaps it may indeed make sense to vote against the deal for a swift, if minor, gain of 15 to 20%. But why rush things - you'll pick up roughly 15% in that same timeframe alone in dividends assuming a zero-sum-game capital gains/loss position. And if you are a small retail investor, from April next year the first £5000 of those (or to be accurate, all of your basic stock) dividends will become tax free, even outside of your ISAs and SIPPs. Seek advice from your chosen professional to verify specific details and/or timings of arrangements with HMRC.

Shell remains a major, permanent part of my portfolio, so I'll be voting in favour of the deal unless advised otherwise by those closest to having clear oversight within the board or other key members of the senior team advising.

LNG is clearly seen as key to the rationale behind this deal and to Shell's strategic asset development over the next few years. If you don't share that view, then sell.

Coal-fired electrical generation is just now being set towards retirement. Nuclear and/or renewables are not currently ready to assist in their replacement. Some appalling contracts in the UK have recently been awarded for diesel-based back-up to be put on-line. LNG is the clear optimal solution for the next 10 years.

For me this makes the Shell acquisition of BG to be strongly worth voting for, rather than against, irrespective of the currently very low commodity price environment - that will have its own natural cycle through which to work. And just as the natural cycles of populations of foxes and rabbits ebb and flow, so will ebbing contraction in sector capex lead to supply gluts being a distant memory and gas/oil prices surging once more. Maybe not in Q1 to Q3 2016, but soon thereafter seems plausible.

Shell has consistently been a world-class company for several generations. I only see it getting stronger as it emerges from this challenging period over the last 18 months. The BG deal exemplifies this position of strength in such times.

Either way, good luck to you.

Happy Christmas to all.

FJ :)

[imperial3] 21/12/2015 22:03

I shall be voting against the deal.Who shall be doing the same as me? Replies welcome.

[montyhedge] 21/12/2015 20:40

If the deal does not go through Shell will bounce to £19 one analyst said £22.Please don't buy BG, Shell.

[careful] 21/12/2015 20:04

For BG. shareholders there is a 13% gain if the BG. deal goes through.
Many may think that the shareholders will reject this deal.
Daily Telegraph reported today that Capital group have offloaded £100m shares in BG. recently, ahead of the deal.
They bought Shell shares also.

They must think that this merger will be voted down.

[losos] 21/12/2015 11:22

imperial3 - "Nothing new about oil spills in Nigeria"

You are correct, it was even going on in the 1980's (When I was there, briefly thank God)

It has maybe got worse in last ten years as local groups start to exploit the situation. You can't use the words Nigeria and civilisation in the same sentance!

[shaggies_view] 21/12/2015 09:13

Indeed Monty, and scaling at this level is a bonus.
I suspect we will see 12+ quid in Jan/Feb coinciding with commodity lows.
Shaggy

[montyhedge] 21/12/2015 08:58

All I know, dividend is safe, the lower the £ goes against the $ the higher the dividend will be. Paid 4 times a year.

[sogoesit] 21/12/2015 06:28

It's difficult to predict what "logic" is in an artificial world of policy make-up (climate change fantasy) and real-world economics but whatever economic manipulation China engages in it does have an effect ultimately.
The problem is that in a commodity it is going to take a long time to defeat price.

[11_percent] 20/12/2015 17:36

Not too sure about the logic.

[11_percent] 20/12/2015 17:17

Agreed, it is not a material issue.

[imperial3] 20/12/2015 16:55

Nothing new about oil spills in Nigeria,and the consequences thereof.This has been going on for years and years.

[atlantic57] 20/12/2015 16:26

This will be a significant issue for Shell to deal with.
However from incidents in developing countries eg Bhopal !
It is much harder for poorer countries to obtain financial settlements of size.
Whereas as the Bp incident showed if a similar incident occurs in the states you are talking mega bucks.

[fangorn2] 20/12/2015 16:12

@Jonwig,

I did (or thought I did but the link didnt get posted for some reason!!!!!)

[jonwig] 20/12/2015 12:33

montyhedge - sure, it's a hedge fund-driven conspiracy.

And all 50+ articles published on Friday's Dutch Court ruling (Google search) were paid for by a couple of hedge funds. In fact, the Dutch court in The Hague was bankrolled by them.

Everything's a conspiracy, dammit!!