Shaft Sink Share Discussion Threads

[buywell2] 11/4/2014 06:42

SA ..... RISK profile is getting worse not better








........... South Africa mining strike damage is 'irreparable' ..........



25 March 2014

Leaders of South Africa's platinum mines have said the nine-week long strike by workers has caused 'irreparable' damage and has cost the sector nearly $1bn.

Miners at Anglo American Platinum, Lonmin, and Impala Platinum want their pay to be doubled.

But the companies said they cannot afford to meet the workers' demands.

The strike has damaged mining communities in the platinum belt northwest of Johannesburg, they said.

Crumbling trade

"Mines and shafts are becoming unviable; people are hungry; children are not going to school; businesses are closing and crime is increasing," the companies said in a joint statement.

The sector had lost "close to 10bn rand ($920m) in revenue" they said.

Continue reading the main story
"
Start Quote
It is irresponsible to take workers on such a long strike where there are no prospects of achieving the demands"
End Quote
Statement
COSATU
Miners were reportedly having to sell cattle to make up for the shortfall in their wages, which, across tens of thousands of workers, amounts to 4.4bn rand ($406m).

Local businesses have reported falling trade as large numbers of migrant workers have gone home.

'Open to talks'
Discussions between the AMCU union and the three biggest platinum produces have come to a halt.

Unions want the workers' basic salary increased to 12,500 rand ($1,155; £702) a month for the lowest paid workers over a period of four years.

Anglo American Platinum said this would represent an average annual increase of 29%, which they said was "unaffordable".

But the companies said they were open to talks "within a reasonable settlement zone".

The strike is the largest since the apartheid era ended in South Africa and has dented 40% of the world's platinum production.

South Africa is experiencing slow economic growth and one in four people in its population are unemployed.

Job cuts

The unions' powerful umbrella group, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) said it was behind the call but said the union representing the strikers was irresponsible for taking workers on "such a long strike".

It said there were "no prospects of achieving the demands".

COSATU also said the South African government should get involved.

South Africa's deputy president is set to meet the mining industry and unions on Thursday, which he does regularly.

The companies have said there could be long-term restructuring and large-scale job cuts in an industry that employs more than 100,000 people.

"Sadly, as the industry progresses towards greater mechanisation and higher skills levels, which are aligned with higher earnings and greater productivity, so the number of people employed in the industry will decrease," they said.

[koolio] 11/4/2014 04:32

What is wrong with you people?
Hedgehog and Muckshifter get a private web room or something.

[muckshifter] 10/4/2014 20:22

Your problem is, hedgehog, that you don't seem to understand much. You decided, and posted, that I thought there would not be a dividend cut. ie. you claimed to be able to read my mind, but clearly couldn't.
Unfortunately for you, you had also posted, dozens of times, what you called my prediction that the share price of shft would be down to 10 or lower by the time of the results.

That left you making two assertions of what you said I believed which were completely incompatible, ie. if I thought both, shft would have been paying a dividend of around 100% of the share price, so in your stupidity, you caught yourself in a trap.

As usual, when you've said something stupid, you try to change the terms of the argument, or the subject. On this occasion, you tried to change it into an argument about whether or not I had posted my belief that the dividend would be cut. And I responded as you have posted above, but that is absolutely nothing to do with your original point which started the argument.
You wrote a very assertive post full of capital letters, saying:
"P.S. Muckshifter: You yourself DIDN'T predict the cancellation of SHFT's final dividend ... which based on your penchant for bashing the company means that YOU thought that it would be maintained!"
If you had written a post simply saying that I hadn't predicted in a post that the dividend would be cut, there would have been no subsequent humiliating argument for you to try to wriggle out of.

[hedgehog 100] 10/4/2014 18:50

buywell2 10 Apr'14 - 16:45 - 2409 of 2410 0 1
"What has happened to Acquarius Platinum and other BIG quality mining companies of years back shows just how bad things have got in SA ... "


Strange timing Buyduds2,

A day when AQP has finished number one on the LSE top risers list, out of over two thousand companies -

Symbol Name Cur % Chg Change News
1 AQP Aquarius Plat. 41.00 21.48% 7.25 2

[hedgehog 100] 10/4/2014 18:46

Muckshifter,

You seem to have a serious reality problem.

You referred to people on an Iofina thread as trolls - it's there in black and white.
Whether you, or anyone else, felt they deserved to be referred to as trolls or not is irrelevant.


And as regards the dividend cut, you need to PROVE your claim, in order to constitute "nailing" of myself.

But you've admitted that there is no posting evidence:

From the thread "Mining Services Companies: 'Picks & Shovels' Plays (SHFT)" -
muckshifter 8 Oct'13 - 18:53 - 77 of 91 1 0
" ... my expectation was a dividend cut, I have never hinted, suggested or in any other way claimed that I posted directly predicting that cut. ... "

So, it is simply your unsubstantiated word.

And that, matey boy, does not constitute "nailing", in any way, shape, or form.

[buywell2] 10/4/2014 16:45

What has happened to Acquarius Platinum and other BIG quality mining companies of years back shows just how bad things have got in SA



It is NOT the place to be now















buywell2 14 Mar'14 - 17:48 - 2399 of 2408 edit

SHFT

Is now in a dark place

Chart support being tested ... if it goes then 10p cometh

dyor

[muckshifter] 10/4/2014 15:43

If anyone wants to understand Hedgehog's desperation, follow this story:
In post 1096 on the Touchstone thread, Hedgehog reposts a post I made on the Iofina board. I've no idea what point Hedgehog thinks he's made.
At a time when he was losing lots of arguments with me on shft boards last Summer, he launched what he obviously hoped would be a long drawn out "he said, she said, he said, she said argument, about me calling people "trolls" on the Iofina board, as a distraction. I couldn't be bothered with it then, or now really, and after suggesting that anyone interested in reality should just read the posts preceding my post in question on the relevant board, didn't bother, even though I believe Hedghog went back to post on that subject a few times since.

So, just in case there is anyone interested after having read post 1096 above, here is the quickest way to put my post in context:
Go to the "replacement" iofina board – it's just titled Iofina, and is popular, so it will probably be on the first or second page of advfn. Put 15 in the "Go To" box and enter. Read the rest of the posts on that page, and you will see exactly what was causing the problem that the vast majority of sensible posters on the original Iofina board were complaining about. Then click on "Recent" and see what happened, then, if you want to, read my post as copied in 1096 above, again.
Regards.

[hedgehog 100] 10/4/2014 15:34

Look who's talking!!

It's far more credible than your so-called 'nailing' list mate, some of which doesn't even have any actual 'evidence' other than an unsubstantiated view from yourself!

[muckshifter] 10/4/2014 15:30

I'm on the verge of feeling sorry for you Hedgehog. You seem to think you or another poster saying something, proves something.
What desperation!

[stockonomist] 08/4/2014 21:59

Guys please join us on Monday 14th April 2014 on the 'One year Anniversary of Headuphisownasshog being WRONG on TGL' thread



Touchstone Gold Ltd - TGL
Hedgehog 100 - 14 Apr 2013 - 21:45:44 - 207 of 1087
A comparison with the share prices of Touchstone Gold in Canada versus the UK:

Touchstone Gold Limited (TCH)
Exchange: Toronto Stock Exchange
$0.075


TGL TOUCHSTONE GOLD LIMITED ORD NPV (DI)
TOUCHSTONE Currency GBX
Price +/- Var % Volume Last close
5.75 0.00 +0.00% 78,552 5.75 on 12-Apr-2013


At current exchange rates, 1 British Pound Sterling equals 1.56 Canadian Dollar, and 1 Canadian Dollar equals 0.64 British Pound Sterling.

Therefore 5.75p (AIM) = 8.97c.(CAD)), & 7.5c(CAD) (TSX) (= 4.8p).

I.e. at the moment the TSX Touchstone Gold shares are relatively underpriced to the AIM Touchstone Gold shares.

[buywell2] 04/4/2014 13:09

This won't help the SA mining industry

Staple food prices set to rocket

Wage demands to keep pace = higher costs = losses or no profits




Climate change is already affecting lives and will have catastrophic impacts if carbon emissions are not lowered now, warns the UN's climate body.
Maize yields in Southern Africa are predicted to drop by a third by 2050. (Getty)

A new report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has painted a world where human civilisation will struggle to survive unless carbon emissions are cut urgently. The impacts if nothing happened would be "severe, pervasive and irreversible", it said.

"Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change," Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the panel, said.

The 2 600-page report, titled "Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", is the second one in a trilogy after last year's report said there was a 95% "certainty" that humans were driving climate change. It takes information from 12 000 peer-reviewed articles and 300 scientists to give an idea of what risks are posed by climate change. Another report next month will look at solutions.

Changes were already being felt across Africa and the world. "African ecosystems are already being impacted by climate change, and the future impacts are expected to be substantial," it said.

The report said that average temperature increases across Africa would exceed 2°C by the end of the century, if urgent action was taken to reduce emissions. If nothing happened, that temperature would be met by mid-century, with a 6°C rise by 2100.

Hotting up
The projections for South Africa are similar – the coastal area will warm by at least 2°C, while the interior will warm by 6°C.

The key for the continent is to adapt to climate change while lowering its emissions. South Africa is responsible for the majority of the continent's carbon emissions as a result of its coal-intensive energy production. But most of the continent was vulnerable because its ability to adapt was low.

"Africa as a whole is one of the most vulnerable continents due to its high exposure and low adaptive capacity." South Africa had an advantage because it had infrastructure in place that could be "climate proofed", along with expertise in the sector.

In Southern Africa the impacts of climate change would be particularly harshly felt when it came to agriculture and rainfall. All crops would be impacted, with maize yields predicted to drop by a third by 2050. More frequent droughts would wipe out cattle herds – something which is already happening locally with prolonged droughts in North West and the Northern Cape. For the poorest this meant they would not have the ability to recover from shocks as they already had little.

This theme runs throughout the report; the poorest are already feeling the impact of climate change with food prices, and will continue to be the most heavily impacted because they have few ways to adapt. The Millennium Development Goals, which seek to increase access to things like water and education, would be seriously undermined because of climate change. People would therefore be left in ever-increasingly vulnerable situations, becoming less and less able to adapt to an environment that was changing more and more rapidly.

Spread of disease
Dr Jane Olwoch, a climate change specialist and an author of the health impacts section, said climate change would lead to an intensification and spread in diseases. This would lower people's ability to survive other disasters and diseases and leave the population more vulnerable. The impacts would be widespread and pervasive – like people living in cities suffering greater heat stress, cutting productivity.

This was particularly relevant in Johannesburg, which is expected to warm by 6°C without the impact of urban heat islands, which trap heat inside the city's buildings and drive up temperatures.

In South Africa the most immediate impact would be with rainfall. The already water-scarce country will dry up, with an increase in rainfall only in the east and along the Drakensberg. But these rains would be more intense and infrequent, which would make it difficult for farmers.

The report tries to balance the possibility of catastrophe with what could be achieved if action is taken now. "Equitable socioeconomic development in Africa may strengthen its resilience to various external shocks, including climate change," said the report.

Professor Oliver Ruppel, a law professor at Stellenbosch University and an author on the Africa section, said South Africa's climate change response explicitly accepted the findings of the IPCC process. The findings of the body therefore had to be accepted and used locally.

Political action required
He emphasised the need for global and local political action to stem emissions now. "The problem we have now is that everyone blames someone else for the problem. If we don't find a solution, that's a problem." If countries did come together and prioritise lowering emissions, there was enormous potential in Southern Africa owing to the possibility for renewable energy. "This must be considered a win-win," he said.

The report, drafted over three years by scientists volunteering their time, drew 30 000 comments. Each one of these had to be catalogued and responded to. The final document, released on Monday in Japan, came after a further week of discussion about the exact wording of each document. Here country representatives could ask for tweaks in wording, on which the scientists had final sign-off.

Dr Robert Scholes, a systems ecologist at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, said the document had to be a call to action now. If it did not the world would continue on a path which ended in a climate system that was not inducive to human civilisation. "There is no sudden point, it just gets worse and worse," he said.

The climate change panel's reports have become increasingly more informative, and alarming, in recent years as climate change science fills in holes in knowledge. It is not prescriptive, so cannot tell governments what to do. But the information is used by governments to guide their thinking and planning to deal with issues that will be raised as the world warms and changes.

Penny Urquhart, an independent analyst on adaptation and an author of the report, said early on that aggressive emission reductions were needed. "We have a window of opportunity to avoid a 4°C increase, but it is closing really rapidly."

The timing of the report was critical, as it would be used as a basis for the international climate negotiations, which are to create a global plan to survive climate change. This has to be signed off at the annual Congress of the Parties in 2015 before being implemented in 2020. "Failure in Paris in 2015 is not an option and the report makes that very clear," she said.

[hedgehog 100] 19/3/2014 21:04

18/03/2014 07:00 UKREG Capital Drilling Limited Full Year Results

"Capital Drilling Limited (CAPD:LN), the emerging and developing markets focused drilling company, today announces its full year results for the period ended 31 December 2013.

FULL YEAR FINANCIAL RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2013*

2013 2012
$m $m

Average Fleet
Size 91 88
Fleet Utilisation
(%) 55 76
ARPOR ($) 179,000 192,000

Revenue 116.3 158.9
EBITDA 17.0 37.1
EBIT (0.2) 20.9
Net (Loss) Profit
After Tax (1.9) 14.1

Earnings per
share
Basic (cents) (1.4) 10.5
Diluted (cents) (1.4) 10.5

Net Asset Value
per share (cents) 68.0 69.2
Return On Capital
Employed (%) (0.2) 19.8
Return on Total
Assets (%) (0.2) 16.2
--------------------- -------- --------
Net Debt / Cash 9.0 20.0
Net Debt to
Equity (%) 9.9 21.4
--------------------- -------- --------

* All amounts are in USD unless otherwise stated

Financial Overview(1)
-- Revenue down 27% to $116.3 million (2012: $158.9 million)
-- EBITDA remained positive despite sharp decline in revenue
-- Breakeven EBIT result in the face of a sharp revenue decline
-- Net (Loss)/Profit After Tax down 113% to -$1.9 million (2012: $14.1 million)
-- Net Debt to equity ratio of 9.9% (2012: 21.4%) improved by 54%
-- Net Operating cash flows of $15.0 million

Operational Highlights
-- Robust Average Revenue Per Operating Rig (ARPOR) of $179,000 (2012: $192,000) despite declining utilisation rates and inconsistent drilling requirements
-- Strong operational performance leading to preferred contractor status at sites in Mauritania, Tanzania and Papua New Guinea

Continued strategic progress
-- Previously announced contract wins:
v New production drilling contract win with Geita (AngloGold Ashanti) announced in October 2013, in line with the Group's focus on long term mining contracts
v New production drilling contracts with St Barbara in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands
-- New contract wins:
v Renewed 5 year production drilling contract at the Sukari Gold Mine (Centamin), running to 2018
v Contract renewal for diamond and reverse circulation drilling (4 rigs in total) for MMG Limited in Tanzania, commencing in the second quarter of 2014
-- Continued focus on disciplined capital expenditure with 2013 CAPEX of $5.7 million (versus $30.0 million in 2012)
-- Current fleet age of approximately 4 years provides one of the most modern drilling fleets in the market
-- Significantly improved gearing profile with gearing ratio of 9.9%, driven by strong cash generation

Commenting on the results, Jamie Boyton, Executive Chairman and CEO of Capital Drilling, said:

"2013 was a challenging year for the Group however management's focus on cost reductions coupled with discipline around capital expenditure led to solid cash generation over the period. The Group concluded 2013 with year-end net debt to equity ratio of 9.9% and given the substantial capital investment program in prior years the Company continues to own and operate the youngest scale fleet in the industry, with ample capacity to deploy assets when market conditions improve.

Critically the Company continued to execute on its stated strategy of increasing our exposure to production contracts, securing a comprehensive 5 year contract at the Geita Gold Mine in Tanzania. We are also pleased to today announce that we have successfully negotiated a new 5 year production contract at the Sukari Gold Mine in Egypt, running to 2018. Based on current forecasts the Group expects production contracts to contribute over 50% of revenue in 2014, providing greater stability to the platform as we continue to seek to grow the business.

While we have seen a recent increase in tender enquiries the environment remains challenging and competitive, with excess global rig capacity, subdued levels of equity market activity and a continued focus on free cash flow generation and capital discipline from mining companies. The Group remains well positioned in this environment with ample capacity in both the fleet and our balance sheet, along with a strong performance culture that will continue drive future opportunities." "

[muckshifter] 17/3/2014 12:27

Having just read it, I've no idea what Hedgehog's post 2398, above, about Silverdell, is meant to indicate, other than that Hedgehog prefers regurgitated journalistic opinion to thinking for himself about the facts provided by the Regulated News Service of the London Stock Exchange, but we all knew that anyway.

The reason I've suggested a few times that shft shareholders have a look at Silverdell is the parallels between the two companies.

Both are in high risk elements of Civils contracting.

Silverdell had a subsidiary get into financial trouble, with the receivers being called in to the subsidiary after a winding up petition, and Silverdell's shares were suspended. If shft suffer even a bad "draw", ie. arbitrator says give back the profit element on a failed contract, the subsidiary which holds the contract, and is, I believe, one of shft's main South African operating subsidiaries, would immediately be put into administration by the bank, and I believe shft shares would be suspended.

Silverdell put out an RNS two weeks after the shares were suspended (16/7/13) saying that they had the support of their bank, but later events indicate that that support was at best shakey, and probably cynically provided to allow time for the bank to get the best deal it could for itself, while stuffing other creditors. Bearing in mind shft's failed attempts to negotiate new bank facilities over the last year, shft would probably be lucky to get serious bank support, imho, particularly if performance bonds or liquidated damages were involved, or if Eurochem made clear their intention to pursue the main holding company through the courts.

Silverdell then staggered on for another six months. My guess is that clients behaved the way that they usually do in such circumstances, they, putting it politely, make sure that they don't overpay the contractor, ie. make sure they keep enough in the bag to deal with all eventualities. Just one unethical client, on a big contract, would be able to finish shft off if they wanted to, while they are in that state (ie. suspension following receivership of a subsidiary). The problem here is similar to the point I made long ago on shft, that civils contractors can easily "cook the books" and make things look OK – for a while, with clients having the ability to easily "cook the books" sufficiently to withold payment – for a while. In this context, I suspect that one of Silverdell's subsidiaries – Kitsons, perhaps, had been "cooking the books" for a year or two, hiding their true financial situation.

Suppliers and subcontractors exacerbate the problems of a company, once the financial strength and survival of that company is called into question, by suspension of its shares. At a minimum, they usually reduce drastically the credit facilities made available to the company, which both makes it more difficult to operate normally, and drains cash.

I can't remember a single civil engineering contractor, out of hundreds that called in receivers during my almost 50 years of interest in the industry, where a subsidiary was put into receivership and the parent company survived as an independent company.

So, my opinion remains that putting the relevant subsidiary into receivership would not save shft if they fail to win the arbitration.

The little bit of what looks like real information, which imho slipped out with the spin by shft/IMR to the FT, as revealed in Ivyhuang's post above (posts 2371 & 2374 refer), makes me considerably more pessimistic about shft's chances of winning the arbitration.

But in the meantime, imho, shft desperately need the long awaited award, together with an advance payment, of the Kazchrome contract (or a rights issue – or both), to deal with very tight cashflow.
Regards.

[buywell2] 17/3/2014 08:20

why ?

''Group revenues during the year ended 31 December 2013 are expected to be lower than during the prior year at approximately £150m (2012: £192.5m). This is mainly due to the Group's reduced workload during the year and the deteriorating value of the ZAR against Sterling, which impacted revenues by some 11%. However, a number of the Group's projects also encountered operational difficulties resulting in reduced billings to clients. Gross margin is expected to have decreased to between 9 - 10 per cent. (2012: 11.7%).



Since the Group's last update to the market, operations have been materially impacted by the following key factors:



1. Poor sinking progress at the Hindustan Zinc Limited project which resulted in higher than expected costs and lower revenues;

2. Operational underperformance at the Group's South African business, with performance at the Impala 17 and Styldrift projects particularly disappointing;

3. The write-off of previously incurred costs at the Impala 16 project that cannot be recovered from the client;

4. The under-recovery of Engineering overhead costs due to the lower workload;

5. Higher interest costs as a result of weaker than expected cashflow in South Africa; and

6. Delays to the commencement of the Kazchrome contract. Negotiations with Kazchrome are still ongoing and the Group shall provide a further update as appropriate.


As a result of the above, the Group's profitability will be materially below expectations for the year ended 31 December 2013, and profit before tax is expected to be between £2.5 million and £3.0 million, subject to the audit process''

Profitability and cash availability will remain under pressure until the EuroChem arbitration comes to an end, which management expects to be by early 2015.

[buywell2] 17/3/2014 08:09

SP currently being shafted

advfn fundemental data will show red numbers soon methinks

Asset writedows must soon cometh

[buywell2] 14/3/2014 17:48

SHFT

Is now in a dark place

Chart support being tested ... if it goes then 10p cometh

dyor

[hedgehog 100] 06/3/2014 20:24

Nice to see CAPD move to a new 9-month closing high today, above the 29p achieved in November:

Price Price Change [%] Bid Offer Open High Low Volume
29.75 0.75 [2.59] 29.50 30.00 29.00 30.50 29.00 149,071
Market Cap. [m] Shares In Issue [m] Beta EPS DPS PE Ratio Yield 52-Wks-Range
40.04 134.59 1.00 6.28 - 4.74 - 44.50 - 16.13

[hedgehog 100] 01/3/2014 19:06

25/02/2014 07:00 UKREG Randgold Resources Ld Kibali takes next step to full production

"Miami, FL, 24 February 2014 - Commissioning of the sulphide circuit at the Kibali gold mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is underway, Randgold Resources chief executive Mark Bristow announced here today. Kibali started production from its open pit through its oxide circuit last September and completion of the sulphide circuit will significantly advance its development as a world class gold mining complex.

Speaking at the BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference here, Bristow described Kibali as a work in progress. "While the plant processes ore from the open pit mine, the underground mine is still being developed and has just accessed the first underground ore," he said. Randgold is developing and operating Kibali, in which it has a 45% stake.

Bristow noted that, like all the other mines Randgold has developed, Kibali posted a bottom-line profit in its first quarter of operation, the three months to December. It is on track to meet its production guidance of 550 000 ounces for 2014.

While much of the gold mining industry has been left in disarray by the downturn in the gold price, Randgold's long term growth strategy remains intact, Bristow said.

"We're not worrying about how we're going to get through 2014; we have a robust value-focused five year plan in place, and we are looking to build on that. It's worth noting that our models are based entirely on our banked reserves and on a long term gold price of US$1 000 per ounce," he said.

"In addition to the upside associated with Kibali's main open pit and underground orebodies, which is still being evaluated, our exploration team is also hunting for fresh opportunities within its vast lease areas, and a number of exciting, if early stage, prospects have already been identified. Elsewhere in the DRC and West Africa, we're aggressively exploring our extensive groundholdings for new discoveries." "

[hedgehog 100] 01/3/2014 16:31

From the 10th. January 2014 "Investors Chronicle" (extracts only) -

"Silverdell bows out

After losing the support of its banker, Silverdell has been bought by turnaround specialist Rcapital partners

... Silverdell issued an update on New Year's Eve admitting that trading conditions in the group's subsidiaries had been extremely challenging, reflecting the impact of one of the group's operating arms, Kitsons, entering administration. This, in turn, led to a serious deterioration in the group's working capital position. ...

The IC first tipped shares in Silverdell on 6 January 2011, at 7.25p, and over the next two years the share price more than doubled. We renewed that advice on 31 January 2013 at 17p, when the shares were still modestly rated with an earnings multiple of eight. Gearing at that time was 29 per cent, and there was nothing to indicate that the group's business model would not continue to drive better returns. Then came the resignation of the finance director, following serious accounting issues, but it was the decision of HSBC not to support the group that finally precipitated its downfall."