Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 12/12/2024 07:30

That seems to make sense.

[captainfatcat] 12/12/2024 07:30

Thoughts on today's announcement?

[sludgesurfer] 09/12/2024 18:15

I suspect that's the wrong way around... :-)

[golfer32] 09/12/2024 08:48

Cannacord unrisked 196
Risked 266
What's not to like

[tonynorstrom1] 09/12/2024 08:40

Sawney - do you have a link to the broker report - cheers

[sawney] 09/12/2024 08:12

It would appear that a Broker has initiated a "BUY" for Serica...

[bountyhunter] 07/12/2024 19:40

Thanks Fandagle, it's good to have the view of an experienced expert in the field.

[xxnjr] 07/12/2024 19:20

Thanks for your reply Fandagle. That sounds encouraging.

[fandagle] 07/12/2024 17:23

As you say BH its down to economics, the FPSO lifetime is determined by DNV & the condition of the Hull, its had a few upgrades so i think it could be fine for many years to come. And of course these operational issues can be resolved as long as they have the right folk making the decisions.

[bountyhunter] 07/12/2024 17:09

How long do you think the Triton will last? Can it be kept operational until the oil and gas fields become uneconomic? I'm presuming that most if not all operational problems can be resolved and that it's a question of money (and time)?

[fandagle] 07/12/2024 17:03

I think they will Retrofit/Upgrade that compressor for sure especially given the current pantomime. Its been a while since i was on the Triton and only worked on the Power generation GE LMS(WHAT A MESS)6000s, so can't remember what type of compressors are on there, although its probably Dresser Rand or Siemens. The Retrofit will include new Tandem Dry Gas seals, an upgraded Dry gas seal system including heater ,booster & nitrogen system to improve efficiency. After that the kit should last around 8 years, we will be millionaires by then of course....

[xxnjr] 07/12/2024 15:59

Hi Fandagle,

Thx for your invaluable insights. Haven't been following events terribly closely. What do you think they might have been doing to the second compressor due back on-line sometime 1Q/25? That seems to be under a more profound maintenance, refurbishment, upgrade, or whatever than replacing 2 seals? Might that have a higher chance of a successful outcome? thanks

[fandagle] 07/12/2024 15:40

Im staying and adding, they have one more shot at the spare seals. I do believe the cracks are appearing in Millibands Road show, once they realize they desperately need oil and gas for a long time to come this share price will defo increase drastically. Jeez they have re-opened the Nuclear energy door only yesterday.

[farmscan] 07/12/2024 15:11

40 weeks.... all seems pretty bleak then.

Presumably you'll be selling out then Fandagle?

[fandagle] 07/12/2024 14:53

Hi

1. Slow roll is part of a start up and shutdown sequence of the Compressor driver, the driver may be a gas turbine or motor. If it has slow roll in its sequence then the speed of the compressor rotor is reduced in turn reducing the air pressure that keeps the dry gas seal faces apart, we are only talking about the size of a human blood vessel (microns). However if the seal faces mesh then they will very quickly wear, once the faces wear then the party is over as the gas will seep through and up the lum (Flare)
2. This is what I’m concerned about,if the replacement seal are silicone carbide then new seals will have to be ordered,that would be 40 weeks.
3. There maybe a option to increase the slow roll speed in turn increasing the pressure and separating the seal faces during start up, but that’s dependent on the driver as the slow roll sequence is also a safety device for the bearings and rotating equipment.

[elsa7878] 07/12/2024 14:38

Hi. Many thanks for your detailed responses.

So.
1) No slow roll and this happens again.
2) They go for the diamond coated option. Would we know this and should that solve the problem?
3)If replacing the seals does not fix the problem what is the solution likely to be and how long might it take?

Appreciated your response.

NB I am not a shareholder. I have been but not now. As you had said previously yourself, IF they can sort out the problems on the Triton (and the photos online indicate it is an old rust bucket), then the share price is cheap.

Thanks again.

[fandagle] 07/12/2024 10:25

Hi

You are correct, these are all my assumptions, if i did have access to the Compressor i would not post on here as I have skin in the game like yourself.

However the failure mode for Dry gas seals are obvious to the technical eye.

Reading the RNS they say the plant will be down for 2 weeks, thats actually standard time for the investigation of the failure, not the remedy.

They also specifically name the seals as the failure mode, again, that being the case they are damaged and not repairable, damage to new seals are fairly common during start up, especially if slow roll is not considered during the manufacture of the seal faces. For instance diamond coated sealing faces for both seals is recommended, however the Gumtree option is silicone carbide which is cheap! cheap!

Anyway API-692 dictates your seal selection, its easily downloadable as a PDF. I suggest Serica have a look at what's required.

[farmscan] 07/12/2024 10:09

Fandangle, thanks for that.

You clearly have very specific and detailed info regarding the exact problem and even the parts purchased to remedy said problem.

Obviously, you are not currently privy to that information from Serica, otherwise you wouldn't be posting on a bulletin board, I would hope!

I'm assuming it is in the public domain. Can you point to where this information is available?

[fandagle] 06/12/2024 23:09

The Triton has had a lot of work done on it since 2000, controls & Turbine upgrades, I suppose I was hoping against hope that it had changed. Let’s be clear about the current situation, they have purchased 4 dry gas seals for the compressor, one Drive end seal and one non drive end seal both sit on the Compressor rotor/shaft, they will also purchase two spare seals. These gas seals are tandem seals which means they have a primary and secondary sealing system. With one or both seals leaking it means there has been a failure during start up. Thus simply replacing the seals will not solve the problem.

[elsa7878] 05/12/2024 17:26

Fandagle - appreciate your expertise. Having direct knowledge of the asset is incredibly helpful. Thank you for sharing your insights.

Just one question. Why were you positive previously then knowing it was a liability?

Fandagle - 05 Dec 2024 - 07:37:45 - 7357 of 7366 Serica Energy mobile chart - SQZ
Triton maintenance is a shambles! It always has been! I was involved with the GE Turbine control upgrade's many years ago & the place was ran like an episode of Faulty Towers ! The compressors are old and require a Retrofit upgrade to reliable dry gas seals! Why are they changing the same unreliable seals running the risk of repeated failures especially during start up! And if it’s a slow roll issue with the Turbine/compressor speed they will trash the spare seals as well, this happens when the seal surfaces are the incorrect grade, basically the seals don’t separate and grind together, then they are Fekd!
Fandagle - 26 Nov 2024 - 07:32:36 - 7326 of 7366 Serica Energy mobile chart - SQZ
The Triton is a liability now, the money invested in this rust bucket over the years is astounding. Taking months to change a Tandem seal is tardy at best, I've been on the Triton and was not impressed at best.
Fandagle - 15 Nov 2024 - 17:18:05 - 7307 of 7366 Serica Energy mobile chart - SQZ
Building up a nice portfolio at these prices, believe me this Government are worse than Truss, it’s only a matter of time before the money folk put them in line or they will toast.
Fandagle - 03 Nov 2024 - 14:59:09 - 7287 of 7366 Serica Energy mobile chart - SQZ
Can’t believe the price here, didn’t think I would ever get this opportunity to invest here at these prices. The screw will turn when they realise Muppetband is a total Buffoon and they reverse the WFT, by that time SQZ will own half of the N/S

[zicopele] 05/12/2024 11:54

Whatever...some commentators have suggested that the oil has not gone anywhere and is still in the ground as an asset. Now that is strectching an optimism.

This update is dreadful...so soon after a higher forecast.

Should fall to say 110p in anticipation of inevitaable dividend cut.

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 05/12/2024 11:35

My 128p entry felt good yesterday, not so much today. Longer term, should be fine.

[crookie3634] 05/12/2024 11:30

Divi def get dropped? Not sure you can support that evidence with anything factual I didn’t see a massive out reduction, I also noted the higher gas price which will help offset some of the loss.

[s34icknote] 05/12/2024 11:06

Ith vs Sqz ???Ith in my book !!!Sqz seams problematic with titon !

[zicopele] 05/12/2024 08:32

Dividend definitely getting chopped. Not good at present...too many execution errors.