Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[pineapple1] 14/12/2019 12:45

Not directly about SQZ but talks about why investors are unreasonably bearish on oil companies and that nobody is worried about high oil prices currently which makes it likely it will be the thing that shocks investors to the upside.

[joestalin] 13/12/2019 09:30

The pound and shares have surged after the Conservatives won a clear majority in the UK general election. Sterling gained 2.1% to $1.34 - its highest level since May last year - on hopes that the big majority would remove uncertainty over Brexit. The pound also jumped to a three-and-a-half-year high against the euro.

On the stock market, the FTSE 100 share index rose 1%, while the FTSE 250 - which includes more UK-focused shares - leapt 4%, hitting record highs.

Brakes are off!

[jimarilo] 13/12/2019 01:10

Boris Bounce on it's way

[farmscan] 10/12/2019 20:24

I'm not sure how accurate it is either, but Sharescope have Tullow debt for 2018 @ $4.4b.

[captainfatcat] 10/12/2019 13:17

Just had a quick look see at Tullow after yesterdays news

Interesting to see Tullow now forecasting reduced production circa 75000 bopd which is expected to generate $150m of free cash flow at $60 oil in 2020

S/p down 60% on the news yesterday and divi suspension.

Debt $2.9bn (not sure if this is correct as only taken from a post on the Tullow board)


Serica in comparison will probably be generating around the same fee cash flow with zero debt from circa 30000 boepd which less than half of Tullows production.

[dcarn] 09/12/2019 11:56

Bruce 98%
Keith 100%
Rhum 50%

Erskine 18%

[farmscan] 09/12/2019 10:42

That's right, but remember that Rhum is 50/50 with IOC.

[jimarilo] 08/12/2019 22:24

Indeed, a Boris bounce or Corbyn collapse

Hopefully the SNPee will have a shocker

[fardels bear] 08/12/2019 21:12

I'd swap all of Namibia for Shearwater. Rather a pie in the oven than a hundred in the sky.

[chestnuts] 08/12/2019 20:09

Some times you dont need words, well maybe just a few this shows a golden section and is very bearish could be because the USA gas prices have dropped again which means LPG just got a lot cheaper.



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[bountyhunter] 08/12/2019 14:27

LG, personally I am looking forward to a Boris bounce and a Santa rally 😉🎅🎅🎄

[newkotb1] 08/12/2019 13:51

Yep,
Puts the BKR deal into context "how on earth did our board pull that one off", with a tiny upfront payment. Be nice to see another deal on similar lines for Shearwater. I would not mind if Namibia was used as an asset swap if it meant we could start at 50/50 this time around. I don't really have the stomach for drilling anymore!

[farmscan] 08/12/2019 11:22

Interestingly, according to OGA production data, Rhum is currently the 9th top producing field for UKCS after Buzzard, Schiehallion,Elgin, Culzean,Franklin,Cygnus,Catcher and Kraken.

[lord gnome] 08/12/2019 11:11

I think Serica's Santa Rally might just rest with Thursday's election results, BH. Rather like the rest of the market.

[bountyhunter] 07/12/2019 22:57

Corrections/updates welcome, I'm probably a bit out of date...

Post Interims 2019 - SQZ positives...

1) BKR production increased from 26k boepd to 31k for H1 2019
[ 2019 Full year net production expected to be towards upper end of 26,000-30,700 boe/d guidance range ]

2) Operating costs reduced to US$12.30 per boe (GBP9.50 per boe) compared to full year 2018 costs of over US$18 per boe

3) Serica will pay contingent cash consideration to BP, Total E&P and BHP calculated as a percentage (60% in 2018, 50% in 2019 and 40% in each of 2020 and 2021, nothing after that) of net cash flows resulting from the respective field interests acquired

4) Columbus development started 2019. The FDP provides for the supply of up to 40 million cubic feet of gas per day (gross) at peak to the UK gas market and 1,150 barrels per day (gross) of condensate and natural gas liquids ("NGLs"). Timing will depend on the Arran-Shearwater pipeline being tied into the Shearwater platform in Q3 2020. Columbus start-up is expected during the first half of 2021. On-time and on budget.

5) Rhum R3 - following investigative work successfully carried out H1 2019 and in view of production from R1 and R2 continuing at higher than anticipated levels economic analysis indicates that a deferral of R3 capital expenditures is beneficial and consequently execution of the R3 well work is now expected in late 2020 or early 2021

6) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

7) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

8) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability. Serica’s has limited decommissioning liability due to the innovative nature of the Erskine transaction and the various BKR transactions.

9) Erskine - In 1H 2019 production has averaged 3,008 boe/d net to Serica, ahead of the forecast production and in line with the strongest periods of performance since Serica acquired its interest in mid-2015.

10) An independent report performed by Netherland Sewell and Associates estimated Erskine 2P reserves of 5.7 million boe net to Serica as at 31 December 2018.

11) Potential Erskine further development - as operator of Erskine, Ithaca have highlighted in their June 2019 presentation "Defined infill drilling and step-out exploration targets" for Erskine.

12) With Brent priced in USD, Serica is benefiting from the weak pound against the dollar exchange rate.

13) Cash balance accumulating - cash rich / debt free:
At 30 June 2019 the Group held cash and cash equivalents of GBP84.2 million (31 December 2018 - GBP42.1 million) plus term deposits of GBP3.9 million (31 December 2018 - GBP1.0 million), an increase in combined cash and deposits in excess of 100% during 1H 2019.

14) Namibia assets - Luderitz Basin
Serica is running an active farm-out process with an open data-room and a number of oil and gas companies are reviewing the opportunity to drill an exploration well on the licence. Recent drilling results offshore Namibia have strengthened the case for drilling the giant Prospect B, Serica's highest ranked prospect on the blocks.

15) The Board continues to assess the appropriate timing to commence dividend payments for shareholders.

16) UKCS 32nd Round - Serica expects to be active in the 32nd Offshore Licensing Round and other licencing rounds in the coming year.

17) Further accretive deals anticipated.

[bountyhunter] 07/12/2019 18:59

Just been looking at the longer term chart and noted that from around this time in each of the last two years the share price had a nice rally going into January. Ok there has been a lot of volatility but another Xmas rally would be very welcome!

[jimarilo] 07/12/2019 15:49

China still the biggest user of coal to produce electricity, they have been dropping the subsidy on EVs and sales have since dropped of a cliff. Pointless creating demand for clean running vehicles if you are powering them with coal ;-))

For emerging countries to progress, they need viable access to energy, therefore demand is set to substantially increase

[bountyhunter] 07/12/2019 13:00

Good points cfc, you should be on the board! 😉

[captainfatcat] 07/12/2019 12:12

The UK natural gas supply is forecast to be oversupplied for the next couple of years which will keep natural gas prices low. After this demand is forecast to increase again.

Purchasing producing assets in a depressed market then implementing efficiency's in preparation for a upturn. Structuring the deal so the seller has the incentive of receiving a share of the upturn profits (within agreed parameters) sounds just the sort of thing that might interest Serica

Tick Tock

[bountyhunter] 06/12/2019 19:42

Not sure about that longer term with natural gas being the cleaner fuel vs oil. Also with storage capacity reduced if colder weather hits Europe then gas prices could rise significantly albeit probably only while any colder weather lasts, and there is admittedly the possibility of a mild winter as we have had pretty much to date.
That's not to say I wouldn't welcome more of a balance here between gas and oil to not have (nearly) all eggs in one basket.

[fanshaw] 06/12/2019 19:30

Unless they are negoiating a deal at the present time they seem to have missed a trick
in getting hold of a oil producer as gas seems to be going knowwhere, companies have
been snapped up in the the last 12 months and I hope they are not going to sit back on there laurels.

[bountyhunter] 06/12/2019 19:15

(RRE) down since the divi by far more than the div amount. I was suggesting that political factors may have had more affect on producers with a larger proportion of oil vs gas production.