Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[yasx] 04/6/2024 13:59

OilAl,

Exactly my point - diversification is to move away from and reduce risk, not move towards and increase risk.

It seemed a daft decision at the time (I did not hold shares back then), and so it has proven.

[oilinvestoral] 04/6/2024 13:49

"The fault for this rests with SQZ as well - they failed to diversify when it was palpably clear to everyone that the UK Govt was causing havoc for NS players,"--------------YasxErm ... they did diversify ! Wait for it ... By buying Tailwind in the UK! It was literally a few months after the EPL was announced! You couldn't make it up!

[orchestralis] 04/6/2024 13:41

I'll be buying more with the divi

[hunter154] 04/6/2024 10:41

If Starmer simply said that we are not going to add to the Tory taxes on North sea, during the campaign this thing will jump.
It is way to cheap and labour knows that any move that shutters jobs due to their higher taxes will not go down well. Hopefully common sense will prevail.

[yasx] 04/6/2024 10:33

Nigel,

Noted.

[davethehorse] 04/6/2024 09:17

Chart awful here....not sure when next support is?

[nigelpm] 04/6/2024 09:12

I know that yas. I was being tongue in cheek and simply suggesting it would be good. Clearly there are a series of limits and rules they need to follow.

[yasx] 04/6/2024 09:02

Nigel,

Buybacks (in practical terms) are not conducted by the Co. in this way - the broker has a pre-determined set of parameters according to which it makes purchases, rather than the Co. monitoring prices and loading up when prices are lower.

[ashkv] 04/6/2024 09:01

SQZ does appear very inexpensive on EV/2P and EV/Flowing Barrels at this level.

Ex-Div for 14p soon and if it falls to that level it is a screaming BUY.

New highly regarded CEO incoming to replace the third rate clown who was forced out and Labour fears overdone!!!

[creditcrunchies] 04/6/2024 08:50

It'll drop another 14-20p when it goes exdiv soon as well.

[slicethepie] 04/6/2024 08:46

Share price reflects the fear of kier starmer being in charge!

[ashkv] 04/6/2024 08:25

Dire share price - a new 52 week low. Mitch Flegg's poisoned chalice post the debacle Tailwind Deal appears to have inflicted a fatal blow to SQZ's share price!!!

SQZ now worth markedly less than what it paid for Tailwind around a year prior.

Brent in the doldrums but UK Gas prices on an upswing... Dividend Yield now close to 14%!!

:(

SP-> 165.70p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 165.7p on 4 June 24-> 0.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -38.86%
Brent-> $77.30
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £87.50
Shares Outstanding-> 393,468,408
GBPUSD-> 1.280
MarketCap GBP-> £651,977,152
MarketCap USD-> $834,530,755
Cash GBP [Including GBP27.5mn of Decom security deposit reimbursed in 2024] per FY 2023 Results-> £291,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23)-> $372,480,000
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23)-> £213,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $272,640,000
NET CASH (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $99,840,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 11.96%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 19.82p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $734,690,755
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> 45,400
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $17,086
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> $16,183
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $18,312
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $149,158,400
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $20,555
(9p+14p) 2023 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 13.88%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $5.25

[nigelpm] 04/6/2024 08:12

Buyback needs to be very aggressive today. Forget fiddling around with 100k here and there. Put an order in for 5m at 170p and let it fill.

[yasx] 03/6/2024 15:22

The fault for this rests with SQZ as well - they failed to diversify when it was palpably clear to everyone that the UK Govt was causing havoc for NS players, with Labour undoubtedly set to make matters worse - it has been known to anyone with more than a single brain cell that Labour were certain to lead the country at some point in 2024.

A poor acquisition (in the context of what they could have had elsewhere) and now searching for acquisitions has led to a situation in which the shares are drifting with any periodic bounce sold into.

[sawney] 03/6/2024 14:34

All roads appear to lead to Davos...That Labour will not define what they intend to do about Capex investment allowances has just about brought the North Sea to a standstill....Nothing less than gross political incompetence......and they haven't gone through the door of No 10 yet....

[mickinvest] 03/6/2024 13:38

And if by magic a slight softening in Labour's rhetoric.

[nigelpm] 03/6/2024 10:39

Irrelevant from a practical perspective. SNP and Tories likely to be shouting from the sidelines but that's not going to change it.

[mickinvest] 03/6/2024 09:20

Its certainly not wholly irrelevant unless you are only looking at it from the election angle Nigel. There is nobody fighting the O&G corner apart from the Unite union so to get one of the major political parties onboard makes a huge difference as we can at least get some vocal argument to Labour's madness. Gas up 7% this morning, not doing much for the shares though

[nigelpm] 02/6/2024 16:22

It is but it's wholly irrelevant.

[yasx] 31/5/2024 10:52

Wally,

Interesting observations - thank you for that.

[wallywoo] 31/5/2024 10:44

Serica have stated that they are looking at Norway for acquisitions.


Sval Energi AS is a private equity valued company that produce around 70kbopd. They now own all Spirit Energy's Norway assets after Centrica sold them in 2022.


However, their private equity owners now want to sell these assets.


The new CEO of Serica (starts soon) used to be the CEO of Spirit Energy. Anyone can join the dots here for the likely next acquisition!!

[kibes] 31/5/2024 08:54

Ithaca is much bigger than Serica and in any case is 90% owned by Dekel and ENI who are hardly likely to be interested in a takeover by a minnow like Serica. But perhaps the other way round they could take Serica over in a N Sea consolidation.

[yasx] 31/5/2024 08:50

It is not the case that your question was considered to have bad intentions, merely that you opined that there were rumours that you had heard regarding the Co. being taken private - then asked others for insight into those rumours.

The response rightly suggested that since you had heard rumours, it ought to be you that should be offering some insight e.g source of the rumour etc.

If you wish to be taken seriously, then you should offer serious comment.