Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[nimrod22] 07/4/2024 22:50

There's an excellent article in Bloomb.... this evening "The Gold Market Hunts for Answers Behind Bullion’s Sudden Surge" which explores all the possible reasons for Golds rise, there are more than a few, but none really definitive.

[millwallfan] 07/4/2024 15:07

Thank you for all the comments, so in summary there are still lots of ifs and buts and unknown or unquantifiable influencing factors. As such I will just sit on my hands for now to see if my strategy of selling 50% at £1.20 with a free ride for the other half ever comes to fruition 😂

[tightfist] 07/4/2024 09:07

Vino: bear in mind there has been a complete change in colour of the national Government, so the officials/states need time to re-establish what is becoming the new norm - everyone jockeying for position.....but local employment/economic prospects feel like a Winner for me.

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/4/2024 08:45

Into Q2 now, so if they don't get the full Coringa licence it's fair to believe it's never coming. They will however have sufficient cash to independently explore elsewhere. I'm not sure if an attempt to get a full license could lead to a rejection that also ends the trial license. I doubt it. Maybe they could add resources to Palito with spare cash to supplement the max trial license output at Coringa utilizing the ore sorter .... would still only be a two small horse trick. Huge potential as Coringa with full license, Palito with more development, Vale bonuses, Vale gold discoveries and unrelated gold discoveries with the huge cash pile generated by all. There's no more news of the 180 days (now expired) timeframe to agree terms to support the locals. SRB like to go cold on old excuses.

[borisjohnsonshair] 07/4/2024 08:37

A trial license is a trial license - for trial mining, while a full license is obtained. There are no "license" holders that you refer to, Serabi are the applicants. Tgeyve been delayed for questionable reasons - an environmental study and support from local tribes. The former a smoke screen due to higher and more critical political objections ..... insufficient "convincing", if you know what that means in the jungle. Extension of the trial license and ordering of the Ore Sorter (USD1M not USD15M) should be deemed extremely encouraging. The trial license in particular as it's clearly not a policy to buy time but real official support. The top lady at Vale sounds keen to proceed with that side of SRBs bigger venture. I suspect if open pit copper is discovered SRB will be taken out

[tightfist] 06/4/2024 18:23

Vino - An interesting angle: IIRC there is uncertainty who the landowners actually are...... I recall that SRB are holding the owners rightful recompense in an escrow account, pending the Rights ownership being properly established. .That may be a load of baloney (possibly mis-merging the SRB story and the Guardian aggrieved pitch?) so worth checking out in the AR? It also assumes the "rightful recompense" was defined in the papers when Coringa was bought from Anfield. Heaven forbid that SRB signed a blank cheque, isn't convention usually around 2% of NSR?. tightfist

[vino] 06/4/2024 15:10

Surely it’s because the licence holders can adjust the fees to suit the success/failure of extraction and due to the short term of the extension they must believe they can make hay

[tightfist] 06/4/2024 14:12

Hi MFW, it has taken me many years to accept that outside the Western World, administrative processes often take multiple interested agencies and excessive time. And seem designed around prevarication, and doubtless endless negotiation regarding capital allocation, etc. IMHO one can imagine each indigenous people now demanding the investment/jobs in their own parish......So it was a breathe of fresh air that the Trial 3 Year Extension (RNS 31.01.24) included an explicit statement that the Crusher/Ore Sorter installation can go ahead..... why that GU extension, not the Full Licence permitting, is above my pay grade!

[millwallfan] 06/4/2024 13:15

Boris et al. Does anyone know truly what is holding the full licence up ? Is it purely administrative process or something more sinister ?

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/4/2024 16:16

Full Coringa license is required. SRB is a tidy boutique business at the moment due to POG. Real market value is driven by a full license. I believe it's very near.

[tightfist] 05/4/2024 16:01

I should say case not yet proven for 2024. With the Coringa Ore Sorter commissioning expected in Q4 2024, 2025 should see a rapid rise to the next plateau IMO.

[tightfist] 05/4/2024 15:52

My ramble was trying to sense if there is expected to be a legitimate rising production profile. As far as I am concerned, case not proven, probably because I don't see the dots explicitly joined up - which IMHO is a perennial SRB issue. Others may perceive things differently......

[rachael777] 05/4/2024 15:36

Thank you all for the info so production had better be 9500oz at least.....here’;s hoping they finally move on from managing to disappoint the market ...lol

[tightfist] 05/4/2024 15:15

Rachael: As already posted, from 29 Jan: "FY 2024 PRODUCTION GUIDANCE The Company expects FY 2024 consolidated gold production of 38,000 - 40,000 ounces". There was a nice rising production profile from 2022 to Q3 2023, until the disappointing Q4 result - all we are told is "....unplanned downtime..." was a cause..It was noted that in Q4 they concluded "negotiations with the workforce and the union whereby underground hours per shift were increased" although a resulting production increase estimate was not provided..Clearly they are progressively expanding operations at Coringa, but only have 28% ex-Coringa headroom (or 6% increase in Group milled ore) before they hit the Coringa 50kTpa trucking limit IIRC. This indicates that the ore beneficiation (Ore Sorter and Crusher) are key to ongoing growth success, unless Palito mine can pull a rabbit out of the hat - increasing the hours underground, there is now plenty to go at down there..Q1 results later this month may provide more insight, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/4/2024 11:39

They must expect better or they'd not have increased guidance. 39-40k, so Q1 should be 10 ish

[rachael777] 05/4/2024 10:50

Will be interesting to see the first quarter production numbers shortly. Anything above 8500oz would be welcome but I can’t see how they materially improve on that number for a sustained period unless the ore grade being mined is significantly higher than they are currently targeting.

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/4/2024 10:29

3 is too low. If you take PE ration of 4 and 60,000, USD AT 80p, AISC at 1300, gold at 2500 you get 640p. That's zero for Vale

[borisjohnsonshair] 05/4/2024 10:21

Hi Saint - if you punt is 3, you'll win first.

[saint in exile] 05/4/2024 10:12

Let's meet half way and say £3 ish

[kennyp52] 05/4/2024 09:40

and you have said time and again 600p+ Boris 🤷‍a94;️ … but everyone else is an idiot right?