Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 20/6/2021 22:22

Ten Year on the weekly.



Double dip correction would be really good for gold, I note the VIX is bubbling away again, up 16% on Friday too.

[bspgamer] 20/6/2021 20:15

https://www.youtube.com/embed/3ZWrxyzxVJY

[cotton4] 20/6/2021 20:13

hi Tighfist,

Yes, I have looked at Angle. The reviews they have been getting are excellent and I sincerely hope they get the FDA approval they are looking for. I haven't bought any shares though. And that is for pure personal reasons.

[tightfist] 20/6/2021 19:20

Hi Cotton, MFW;.Interesting points; as you say collusion is difficult to detect and/or counter, at least we are lead to believe the underlying SRB performance was better than reported. We have to look to Deloitte and the auditors to share best practice, and CL to put all corresponding robust controls in place..(O/T: To follow the cancer control analogy have you ever taken a look at Angle (AGL)? One of my key holdings and one wonders what the accounting version of their Parsortix technology could become)..The current drilling campaign adjacent to the mines will hopefully deliver Resources expansion to underpin the prospective PE=10 assumption. I am also looking for the wider drilling activities to deliver additional results that can somehow be additionally monetised by 2024 - that is my cherry-on-the-cake..Hopefully the latest presentation is having its impact; currently the share price is at a 13% discount from the ii's placing back in March......Cheers, tightfist

[millwallfan] 20/6/2021 13:15

You can have the best financial controls but collusion is always the most difficult fraud to pick up. From my experience as a chief internal auditor early in my career it is usually either pure luck or a whistleblower.

[borisjohnsonshair] 20/6/2021 11:56

Why is there never any newspaper snippets about Serabi. A short few sentences in the Mail on Sunday for example.

[cotton4] 20/6/2021 11:05

As for the monies that have gone missing this need to be looked as a cancer, see the extent to which it has spread, cut it out and put in place preventative medication. And even with all that put in place, the cancer may return somewhere else. But the management will be looking out for it going forward.
I can't blame CL because there are controls put in place at book keeping level where goods and services are ordered, authorised by relevant managers and paid and become the building blocks for a larger figure in the accounts. Most if not all organisations have pilfering to some extent. I've seen it time and time again.

[cotton4] 20/6/2021 10:48

Hi Chipperfrd

I like your figures, obviously a lot more detail than I went into but I took the view that there were too many variables so took a broad brush approach. Going forward, I see Coringa plant be key to success. If they have the production capability they have the stuff waiting in the ground. It seems to be we have had an unfortunate run of bad luck and hopefully this is now behind us.
The latest rns gives us comfort regarding the financial, we have the cash and we have the assets and the debt is gone. Any misappropriation of funds has already be reflected in the p/l account which for me means the company has financially performed better than what has been reported. Grades for the second qtr will definitely be of interest and an update on the ore sorter. So we have that to look forward to in the near future along with any exploration updates. Calico looks interesting.
As I have said before, the accounts, although important is a snapshot of what has been. Until we get the negative developed, the subject matter of the photograph is still in existence.

[borisjohnsonshair] 20/6/2021 09:38

No adverse comment on that calc, but, it's a valuation on existing Palito + Coringa, correct? Excludes exploration success leading to a new resource?

[chipperfrd] 20/6/2021 09:09

Cotton4 re your post 3240.

I actually end up with an EBT of US$46m for 2024 using US$1,800 gold and 75.7m shares in issue - so essentially agreeing with you. Combined production being at c. 72.3koz. However, like tightfist, I do not expect Coringa to add it's c. 40.Koz of full production until 2024 although that run-rate may be reached in during 2H23.

So for 2024 my DCF model for combined operations gives:
Milled ~ 337.4kt
Gold production ~ 72.3koz
Revenue ~ US$130.1m (at 1800 POG)
EBITDA ~ US$57.5m
EBT ~ US$46m
Net attrib profit ~ US$38.5m
Net post tax cashflow ~ US$40m
EoY Cash Balance ~ US$61m
EPS ~ 50.8cents
FOREX ~ 1.36
EPS ~ 37.4p
Potential share price @ x10 PER ~ 374p

[tightfist] 19/6/2021 23:06

Hi Cotton, IMO I too expect the unrealisable tax credit to be written-off and booked later as P&L upside, if it once-again becomes feasible to sell the credits at a discount..With the latest drilling results at Palito it seems potentially feasible to expand RoM production and some very rough calcs suggest it would cost IMHO around incremental $150/Au Oz to truck ore to Coringa for processing as an interim operation, which seems tolerable. Heaven knows what the licensing implications would be..... This could meaningfully narrow the gap towards your production projection for 2023..I hope that MH, CL and the SRB operations team are being as imaginative! Cheers, tightfist

[cotton4] 19/6/2021 20:05

Hi Tightfist,

The deferred Brazilian tax receivable is an unknown. If it is unlikely to be received, they have a chance to write this off in the 2020 accounts and give us a fresh start.
I accept that the managers will be replaced.
As for 2023 production, imo the Coringa plant will be up and running and as such will have ample spare capacity. During the ramp up of Coringa, they may be able to operate more veins at Palito/ Sae Chico and truck raw material to Coringa but this may not be economical. Whatever happens, production constraint should no longer be an issue, at least for some time.

[tightfist] 19/6/2021 19:14

Hi Cotton,.I like the quantitative approach and leaving personalities out of it - IMO a distraction, rather than rational prudence..To ensure we are realistic and looking for potential downside, I believe that an end-year 2023 exit RUN-RATE of 85k is realistic - but for the entire year I am very doubtful, maybe cumulative 64k? And presumably the two sacked managers are going to need to be replaced together with their salary costs. And have you included the possible impact of the deferred Brazilian tax receivable?.Within that 2023 timescale there may be some upside from Palito, Coringa or Sao Domingos incremental mining/production, but let's keep our feet on the ground!.Cheers, tightfist

[plat hunter] 19/6/2021 19:12

A rising tide lifts all boats Boris, the rerate here won't be influenced by the BOD.

[plat hunter] 19/6/2021 16:18

This article is from November 2006 what happened over the last 15 years BorisHttps://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2012/02/24/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/tips-of-the-week/serabi-mining-srb-cmkSP6tReyVrkJ3pv0UyHN/article.html"Numis forecasts sales of $28m and profits of $5.3m for 2007, on gold production of less than 50,000 oz. By 2010, it thinks that the company ought to be producing more than 100,000 oz aCity analysts think it will, though, in spite of the summer's volatile markets. Even so, Numis values Serabi on a long-term gold price assumption of $550. Not long ago, that would have been considered highly optimistic but, these days, futures prices show a gold price creeping towards $800 over the next five years. If that scenario pans out, it would be good news indeed for Serabi, which could be producing over 100,000 oz a year by then.The shares may be difficult to trade, but, even so, they are worth buying."lolololololololololol

[borisjohnsonshair] 19/6/2021 15:52

Anything happen in 2020 that caused any interruption? Your brain isn't very good - 100,000 delayed but ultimately we'll get there and the delay will mean much less dilution.

[bspgamer] 19/6/2021 15:17

https://www.youtube.com/embed/3ZWrxyzxVJY

[plat hunter] 19/6/2021 15:07

Company's lots; miners not so many

[cotton4] 19/6/2021 14:55

And how many other companies have had there forecasts destroyed by Covid.
You need to get a grip. Or do you have a hidden agenda?

[plat hunter] 19/6/2021 14:45

"For immediate release
25 April 2018

Serabi Gold plc
("Serabi" or the "Company")

Operational Review of First Quarter 2018


OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

First quarter production of 9,188 ounces of gold.
Mine production totalling 39,669 tonnes at 7.49 grammes per tonne ("g/t") of gold.
43,145 tonnes processed through the plant for the combined mining operations, with an average grade of 7.04 g/t of gold.
2,353 metres of horizontal mine development completed during the quarter.
Palito development and production continues to focus on the four main sectors of Senna, Pipocas, G3 and Mogno, whilst in the Sao Chico orebody, the main ramp has now reached level -3mRL, approximately 260 vertical metres below surface. Production is coming from levels 86, 70 and 56mRL. With levels 40mRL, 26mRL and 10mRL all either developed or being development, ahead of production.
By the end of the quarter, surface ore stocks were approximately 10,200 tonnes, (December 2017: 15,000 tonnes) with an average grade of 3.0 g/t of gold, together with approximately 40,000 tonnes of flotation tailings grading approximately 3.0 g/t of gold.

During the year we expect to generate steady positive news flow from a successful exploration campaign from Palito and Sao Chico as well as progress at Coringa, as we pursue our ambition to establish ourselves as a significant gold producer in Brazil with a target of an annualised production rate of 100,000 ounces within the next two years."

[cotton4] 19/6/2021 14:44

Sorry, I meant 8500oz @ 1750 for last 2 quarters.Typo

[borisjohnsonshair] 19/6/2021 14:20

2nd half should be 18,000 ounces

[cotton4] 19/6/2021 14:09

Hi Boris

Sales 32,341,000 (2 gold shipments/1 copper/gold concentrate. Nothing built in for final payments - just pro-rated)
Cos 60% - higher than previous but trying to be a bit prudent. Depends on grades and Real and could be lower.
Admin costs 2,900,000
Dep 3,400,000
PBT 6,636,400

For second half 8500oz at $1750
Similar level of admin and dep.

Some costs should be lower given there are no longer finance costs and 2 less managers.

Hope this helps. I believe you may be a bit more optimistic.