Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 07/1/2019 14:40

Hi PPVN,I just wonder what the cashflow projections look like? It's lots of fun gaining insight to more resources...... but IMHO they need to get the ore sorter up and running at Pallito and substantially improving H2 short-term cashflow within current mill capacity.After that the substantial final payment for Coringa becomes due (at the end of 2019?). With the share price at only 48% of when Greenstone came on board it currently looks tricky?PoG, gold funds and large/mega MC shares are on a roll for the time being, maybe some of that largesse will filter down-market in a couple of months? In the short term maybe we will see some money dribble out but illiquidity in SRB deters that in any size?Wait and see in 2019, tightfist

[ppvn] 07/1/2019 13:32

Yeah it should be late q1. Per the October operation review RNS: "...have also timetabled to issue an updated mineral resource estimate late in the first quarter of 2019".

The x-ray sorter should also become operational soon so we'll see. Hopefully gold can continue upward and they can start actually booking some decent dollar.

[laptop15] 07/1/2019 13:04

Cheers PPVN, do u think the exploration results and resource updates might land in Q1? Looking at the results they are still good for cash at the moment I think

[ppvn] 07/1/2019 11:31

Would think next update will be q4 production results. Should be better (volume of gold) than q3 was and gold in BRL seemed ok. They also have exploration results and resource updates to go. I'm still here and still hopeful but it is very thinly traded so do bear that in mind. If they are able to achieve their stated goals it could be a great little investment, but I did rather think that a while ago so take any comments with a hefty pinch of salt!

[laptop15] 07/1/2019 11:07

Anyone any thoughts here? What's the news flow due?

[sherry35] 16/12/2018 15:32

I would like to see the long term business plan as well -> and how it equates into a PPS that makes me money. In the end, I'm not a charity organization. I would like to make a profit.

As for ball mill plants, I believe there are enough used mill components to start processing ore at Sao Chico. Bigger question should be asked is "has the permitting of a mill on Sao Chico been started?". Have they initiated this low cost activity to expedite what will be a for gone conclusion. The permitting may take longer than acquiring equipment.

As for reaching there 100K oz per annum target, the CEO mentioned in Web cast video hiring new person that possesses the expertise in analyzing possible acquisitions. The name and background escapes my brain at the moment.

[ppvn] 13/12/2018 13:29

Afternoon chaps,

Nice to see I'm not the only one languishing here! It really is taking the patience of a saint here and I do hope they manage to turn things around soon. All very well and good doing all this nice exploration but it needs to translate into a tangible benefit at some point!

I really want to hear from them what the plan is. We know they are plant constrained and they are looking to expand production at either Palito or Sao Chico, and it's understandable that they are holding off on this until the exploration is a bit further along the road. But is the plant on order? The ore sorter has taken over a year to arrive since it was first announced so it'd be nice to see a ball mill or two on order at the very least. They want 100k oz in two years, Coringa is going to be 30k oz, so where is the 30k of natural growth at the other two sites? Why are they still on around 40k/oz of production?

Don't get me wrong, I like this company. I just feel that aside from the exploration stuff which does look exciting, the delivery is being pretty badly run / communicated. We know they have the cash for this so why aren't they expanding faster?

[loganair] 13/12/2018 12:38

An interesting read...


How much gold does China have? A lot more than you think by Dominic Frisby:


Today – as we like to do every couple of years – we consider all the gold in China.

Next time the international money system comes under stress – and that time may not be far away – where the gold is, and who owns it, could be of great importance.

The world’s central banks have been stocking up on gold
You may think gold is an antiquated asset, irrelevant to a modern digital world. China clearly doesn’t. Since the global financial crisis, China has been accumulating gold at a staggering pace.

The implications are considerable.

There are going to be lots of numbers in this piece, so to anchor you with some kind of perspective, let me give you some of the major figures.

Total global central bank gold reserves stand at just below 34,000 tonnes, which is roughly 20% of the 175,000-or-so tonnes of total above ground supply.

The US is the world’s largest owner with 8,133 tonnes. That number works out at around an ounce per citizen. Precious metals analyst Nick Laird reckons that if you add private and institutional holdings to this official 8,133 tonnes, there are 26,000–27,000 tonnes in the US overall.

Below is table of central bank gold holdings, Using World Gold Council table of central bank holdings the UK sits proudly at 17th, two places below Kazakhstan and one above Lebanon.

Central banks, by the way, have increased their buying this year at the fastest rate since 2012. They now account for around 10% of annual gold demand.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC – China’s central bank) announces its gold holdings every five years or so. The current stated figure is 1,842 tonnes.

So that’s what they say they have. Now let’s look at what they have accumulated. We’ll start with what they’ve mined.

In 2007, China overtook South Africa to become the world’s largest gold producer, mining 276 tonnes. Last year it mined 430 tonnes, about 50% more than Australia, the world’s second-largest producer.

China now accounts for around 15% of total annual global gold production. But here’s the thing: China keeps all of the gold it mines. It does not sell a single ounce abroad.

As well as keeping all of the gold it mines, since 2010, China has ramped up its gold imports. In 2014, it overtook India to become the world’s largest importer, buying gold from Hong Kong, Switzerland, London, Australia and Singapore.

It is hard to get precise figures as many of these trades are over the counter, but Hong Kong does provide them – and they are astonishing. Between Hong Kong imports and Chinese gold production, China has accumulated more than 10,000 tonnes of gold since 2000.

Meanwhile, all the gold that enters China must be sold via the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), and it is possible to get numbers for SGE withdrawals since 2008. These take the grand total of imports and production to 14,111 tonnes.

There is also, to add to this number, all the gold that was in China, whether as bullion or jewellery, prior to 2000.

So how much gold does China really have?

Not all of the gold that makes its way to China goes to the central bank, it should be stressed. Indeed, China has encouraged private accumulation of gold.

Quite how much is falling into domestic hands is hard to quantify, but Bron Suchecki of the Perth Mint, studying gold flows, argues that China aims for private citizens to accumulate 55% of flow – with the remaining 45% going to commercial banks and the Chinese central bank. Even if half of that 45% goes to the PBOC, then their holdings are likely to be higher than the stated 1,842 ounces.

However, as precious metals analyst Koos Jansen argues, the PBOC does not buy all its gold from the SGE. It goes elsewhere. There are several reasons for this.

The SGE sells its gold in yuan and the PBOC prefers to use dollars. The PBOC likes to buy 12.5kg bars, which do not trade on the SGE. The SGE has stated that only consumers buy gold over its exchange – although in practice that doesn’t seem to be the case.

The PBOC does not like to disclose all its gold purchases, which on the SGE it would have to do. It prefers “monetary gold” which does not require disclosure on customs reports. The PBOC prefers an OTC (over-the-counter) market such as London, to an exchange such as Shanghai (less disclosure required).

What’s more, as Ross Norman, CEO of Sharps Pixley, tells me: “There are other state agencies apart from the PBOC, which buy gold – there’s the State Agency for Foreign Exchange, China Investment Corporation (the sovereign wealth fund) and the military, for example.

“And they all often use other means to the SGE to buy their gold. There’s the London Bullion Market, other market makers and banks in London, there are the Swiss refiners, a lot goes through Dubai. This is all official gold one way or another, but the real numbers are obfuscated and unknown.”

Norman continues: “The PBOC’s figures can be whatever they want them to be. In all probability, it’s much higher than officially stated. My guess is that they gave that figure of 1,842 tonnes to be high enough to get credibility with the IMF to satisfy its criteria to be included in SDRs (the IMF’s international currency basket), but not so high as to issue any kind of challenge to the US.”

Jansen concurs, estimating official Chinese holdings to be around the 4,000 tonne mark. That would make it the second-biggest owner of gold after the US.

Jansen’s grand total of all the gold in China now stands at around 21,021 tonnes.

Norman, who works at the coalface of bullion dealing, thinks it’s even higher than that. “So much gold has been making its way to China without being declared. It really wouldn’t surprise me to see official Chinese gold holdings above the 10,000 tonne mark.”

That’s an extraordinary number. It would mean that China has more gold than the US.

China’s official gold holdings currently amount to just 2% of its foreign reserves. 10,000 tonnes would equate to 11% of foreign exchange holdings. That’s about the international average. In those terms, 10,000 tonnes is not such an extraordinary number.

But there is no way China could declare that it was holding 10,000 tonnes today. It would cause enormous disruption. First, it would send the gold price a long way higher – which it won’t want to do while it is still accumulating.

Second it would cause untold disruption in the forex markets – a yuan backed by gold could strengthen significantly. China doesn’t want this just yet, either – it wants the yuan low for trade purposes. Meanwhile, it has an extraordinarily large US dollar holding in its foreign exchange reserves. I rather expect it wants to protect the value of its holding – at least for the time being.

But third, and perhaps most of all, to declare that it had more gold than the US would be a direct challenge to American supremacy, almost a declaration of war. China’s not ready for that. Not yet, anyway.

[tightfist] 13/12/2018 12:23

Hi PPVN,Good questions indeed! Gold is generally starting to look more interesting and I noticed the other day that BRL is weak so ongoing production cost for SRB should be encouraging. IMO in a few years time this will look like it was a snip; but multi-year patience may be required for our just desserts!Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 13/12/2018 11:48

Gold back up near it's all time highs in BRL terms (just over 4,800). Will Serabi ever be able to capitalise on this??

Wonder if the ore sorter has arrived on site yet.

[ppvn] 28/11/2018 09:07

GM IronStorm,

Agree wholeheartedly. Wish the bod would give a sign by opening their pocketbooks as I thought the low 50s was the bottom. Whoops!

Read an article from the gold council yesterday that said mining stocks with high BOD ownership outperform their peers significantly - how right they are!

Fingers still crossed here. IP out and zero trades! Says it all!

[ironstorm] 28/11/2018 08:09

I think a very good story is developing here and as with other Goldies it takes a long time to filter through.

With the price performance recently I would not suggest this is the bottom. But the risk reward on this is starting to tilt.

I expect to buy more at some point. Just a question of when.

[ppvn] 28/11/2018 07:32

IP survey results out; again looks very promising. Still here and still hoping for a bit more performance in terms of share price at some point!

[tightfist] 20/11/2018 18:41

Just noted that Cabral Gold are visiting Mines and Money next week. They are also based in the Brasilian Tapajos - very much in exploration mode, quoted on TSXV and with an MC of £3.4m.Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 20/11/2018 10:56

Hi all,

Hope does indeed spring eternal!

And yes, loganair, agree with what you're saying. In previous presentations they have noted that they are targeting 2m oz resource to be shored up with this drilling campaign. More jam tomorrow, but could that change their fortunes?

[loganair] 20/11/2018 10:52

It seems to me what Serabi are looking for and saying there is a possiblity there may be gold deposits located between their two current mines.

[tightfist] 20/11/2018 10:49

Hi PPVN,This morning's update and prospects look pretty good to me, but I am an untrained eye too.So far this morning's single trade (which looks IMO like a mighty Buy of £199 plus costs) is hardly inspiring! However, on the bigger picture I have reviewed the chart of every stock on the AIM market this week and it is truly depressing - last weekend's Trendwatch reports 4% in Uptrend and 34% in Downtrend, need I say more.......I am resigned to SRB becoming a multi-year game of Patience; internal cash generation (don't forget the Coringa final payment) to pursue more expansion opportunities feels to be a long way away, and raising equity finance at these levels is unthinkable (although the two major holders could finance and push PI's out in the cold....?).Maybe Gold will come back in fashion and someone is circling above...... Hope springs eternal! Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 20/11/2018 09:13

Aerial survey results now in and announced today. The cluster of anomalies looks particularly good to my untrained eye. Not even a single trade though!

Can't help but feel that the market needs to see either much better financial results or some director purchases. Interesting though; they were able to attract $23mm of institutional money here at 72p in common equity. Reality of the share price is what it is, but can't help feeling this is potentially a good punt for the brave.

Will you ever go up in price, Serabi?!

[tightfist] 14/11/2018 07:48

Hi,Quite a few fresh aspects to absorb but within the Q3 numbers it's not good news on several fronts...... Maybe explains the lack of BoD buying action in the market to support the sp?tightfist

[ppvn] 09/11/2018 21:04

Aerial survey results due here, think the full ask was due to the Canadian line going up by 16% on Thurs- on a tiny volume also!

It won't take much to go back up which is why I'm pretty relaxed about my top ups that i rather mistimed in the 50s.

Think q4 results should be nearer the 9.5-10k oz, as well as ore sorter news, plus resource update late q1 that could prove very interesting. Don't know if or when we will move, but hopeful that we shall!

[ppvn] 09/11/2018 11:14

I wouldn't hazard a guess at the bottom myself. Hardly any turnover (c. £75k for the whole of October) so if they do finally manage to get their act together (I.e. make some profit!) it shouldn't take much to get the price back up. If however someone decided to sell a few grand worth it'll probably go further (but again, wouldn't take much to rise again).

Could be a decent return here if they can up the production / resources / grade etc, but as you say, decline is fairly relentless.

Be aware also of the relative illiquidity. I'm prepared to sit in the share for a while but that's because I'm hopeful of them reaching 100k oz.

[laptop15] 09/11/2018 08:16

Is this finally bottomed?? Looks cheap but decline seems relentless.......under 2p old share price

[ppvn] 31/10/2018 12:32

Hi Tightfist,

Think its been an underperformer for good reason. Management have made it plain that their ambition is to get to 100k oz per year for a good while, but really there has been little headway made to that end has there. The interview was upbeat, but then many of Mike's interviews are. The reality is that whilst it may be possible, it's still some way off. I've heard the 100k oz now for well over a year and it's still two years away...

That being said, I'm still here because I like the company. I think the resource potential is excellent and I feel it's reasonable for them to hold off on plant expansion until their exploratory work is complete, though it's clearly impacted on their timescale for delivery of better results. Their last mineral reserve estimates were done years ago - Sao Chico last being done in 2012 and little has happened since.

I personally feel they are going to be able to prove up a significantly larger resource with this extensive survey and drilling program they are doing. Yes it's all very jam tomorrow, but hopefully the jam will come. In the meantime they are running an ok operation that borders on profitability, but with the ore sorter, possible plant expansion, etc etc should get better. Ore sorter is now fairly imminent, resource upgrade q1, aerial survey next month - some of the greenstone cash is going to good use.

The elephant in the room is of course the balance of Coringa. But Greenstone and a few other institutions in the follow on offering bought direct equity so I doubt they will approve of a disadvantageous capital raise. We shall see!

[tightfist] 31/10/2018 12:09

Hi PPVN,Thanks for pointing out the latest brr media interview. I felt it was (more than usually) upbeat and also up-front about possible Sao Chico processing plant investment following the positive exploration trends. Clearly the company is in-limbo about investing until more resource info is to hand. It was reassuring that the Ore Sorter is on it's way by which I assume that it's on the water from Poland? With the Pallito underground mini-kit, the ore sorter and the weakness of the BRL the variable profitability (PoG - AISC) and production is surely set to rise during 2019...... The share price needs to get on it's way up; presumably any Capex at Sao Chico is going to need funding and the May placing (Greenstone shares) are almost 50% under water.........It always seems full of promise but a serial under-performer?Cheers, tightfist