Sdi Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 23/10/2023 12:58

You're right of course but hope springs eternal and in the rush for the door,invariably some good solid companies get trampled in the rush.I appreciate however that AIM stocks are inherently vulnerable in the current climate.

[worldwidet] 15/10/2023 15:01

"This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. While we hope for the best, we prepare the Firm for a broad range of outcomes so we can consistently deliver for clients no matter the environment."

Jamie Dimon, CEO JPM

Exactly the right environment in which the stupid small investor money thinks it has to play the investment hero on the illiquid AIM market ...

Executives have understood that the time have changed and continue to stay far away from shares.

Only the stupid small investor who thinks he knows the business better than the executives tries to buy every dip.

Stay away as long as the executives do not buy strongly...

[worldwidet] 09/10/2023 14:58

The problem is that the CEO has focused everything on himself for the last few years. When he leaves SDI (which he will probably do soon) he will leave an absolute mess.

There are no quality leaders at SDI because the CEO has consistently made sure that good people leave SDI and the existing leaders are not rooted in SDI.

The chairman, who is well over 70, will also be leaving SDI in the foreseeable future.

The CEO should have created more potential in the fat years of COVID when interest rates were close to zero and the FCF was bubbling. Now that interest rates are at 5-6% and demand/cash flows are collapsing, it is too late to develop further.

The CEyo has sold his shares and will not buy because he is deep in thought and already retired with his wife and daughter.

I see big problems at SDI and when I think that the next few years will be marked by a deep recession, I see share prices that no SDI bull wants to think about today. I wouldn't be surprised if the recession is deeper and longer than expected and the big institutional players like Danske and JPM, etc., are not going to be able to keep up with it. Start selling into the illiquid market with panic. Also the chairman or his heirs might start selling the last stock.

More and more problems are coming to light.
Massive write-off at subsidiaries.

Strange adjustments to the figures.

Massive insider sales.

Short-term change of CFO. Abell's retirement was very spontaneous).

A 70+ year old chairman and a CEO who looks like he is preparing for retirement.

A lot can happen in the next months and years.

I remain on the sidelines here. All my personal opinion, do what you think is right and make your own decisions.

[isa1m] 09/10/2023 14:30

I suspect Mike Creedon isn't buying because he knows he's on his way out. SDI has hired recently experience in finance, engineering, operations and marketing to cover for Creedon's naivety. Now they need someone who can close acquisitions, or else they lose the franchise.

[fuji99] 09/10/2023 12:03

Regarding China for example, the bad experience of the property developer Evergrande Group (almost bankrupt with billions losses) with huge numbers of unsold/empty properties will for instance affect imports of raw metals such as iron, copper and aluminium extensively used in the construction industry. Miners will be the first to suffer.

[steeplejack] 09/10/2023 11:27

I broadly agree but i think that Warren B's primary message ie cash flow evaluation is as valid today as it ever was.As for the state of the global economy,yes its like a pack of cards.We have a problem because economies are seriously in debt and have limited scope to respond to a crisis.Similarly,China which significantly assisted in getting the world chugging again after the last financial crisis,is now in a questionable economic state too.The world economy is navigating precariously on a knife edge.

[fuji99] 09/10/2023 10:32

IMO the "long term" does not exist anymore (for me at least) for many reasons as the world of finances and geopolitics have changed a lot. We used to buy and forget as after every recession there was always some recovery. At that time the world did not have a global economy. Today everything is linked to each other. The result is seen after Russia conflict, the BRICS forming their own economic bloc and China with its own domestic problems and its Taiwan possible conflict.
When China freezes projects for instance - because of reduction in investments - many Western companies feel the brunt. So IMO the Warren Buffet theory doesn't hold anymore as we live in another unpredictable and more dangerous world and environment.

[worldwidet] 09/10/2023 10:18

The key question .. why no executives are currently buying at around 76p!

If share price are so attractive and sdi's business is doing so well, intelligent executives who are firmly rooted in the company should be buying massive amounts of shares.

But the executives are not rooted in SDI and they seem to know that the prices are not attractive enough for what SDI will be able to deliver.

[nchanning] 09/10/2023 10:14

To be fair , Ken ford sold about 10% of his holding . It was Mike that sold the lot

[steeplejack] 09/10/2023 10:06

'Inside trading' as its referred to in the USA is regarded as more instructive there than in the UK.I followed Chairman Ken Ford's lead,when he sold,i sold.Why not.Ken's an ex Durlacher research analyst,Head of Morgan Grenfell research and CEO of Teather & Greenwood.There are strong headwinds for SDI in the current environment and not just SDI.These are worrying times for world markets in general with weak bond markets weighing on equities.

[worldwidet] 09/10/2023 09:51

No!

It's better to sell your shares when the executives unload almost their entire stock! Many here could have saved themselves a lot of pain.

Your long term talk may give you some comfort yourself but it won't help the people who bought at over 200p!

The interest rate structure has been announced for a long time. In a lost decade, share prices will not recover for a long time.

They like to quote the Oracle of Berkshire?

WB first rule is never lose money! His second rule is never forget rule one! Never lose money!

Many here have been losing a lot of money for months!

And I think the big storm is still ahead of us all.

At least my opinion. But the cops here have known better than me for months.

I've been sitting on a mountain of cash for over a year now, which yields a safe 3-5% return every month. Without any risk. It's so relaxed!

SDI bulls. Just ask yourself that one damn question:

Why don't the executives buy shares?!

[nchanning] 09/10/2023 09:43

Sure guys it's a great strategy to sell your small caps every time a war breaks out on the other side of the world , think that's how Warren Buffet got rich

[fuji99] 09/10/2023 08:57

Black Monday of 1987 happened on 19 October.
Unpredictable events in the Middle East that could dangerously spread coupled with the bonds decay is not the best combination to be invested in stocks at all.

[worldwidet] 09/10/2023 08:54

79p ...

Executives continue to avoid SDI shares.

No M&A for 12 months...

Deep recession

War in Europe and now in the Middle East.

Monetary suicide with yields above 5%...

Bulls ... illiquid AIM markets are hell!

You guys have been having fun with SDI for the last 12 months... I think you will continue to have fun...

60p like a strong magnet!

[fuji99] 09/10/2023 08:47

Bond are already dead. Some bond shorters flapped up a 60% drop for the last 2 years.

[worldwidet] 09/10/2023 06:26

Israel war the black swan the bond markets have been waiting for all along?

Market-wide sell-off bringing illiquid AIM stocks to historic lows?

SDI 60p seems more and more realistic...

[worldwidet] 06/10/2023 16:32

Very few are prepared for what is to come in the next 6-18 months.

If they think they can already look through the coming recession and see something positive at the end of the long tunnel, they will be surprised by what will happen in the next few months.

Prepare for a secular bear market. Such a thing does not last a few months but decades.

I have been ridiculed for months for my critical view, but I have correctly predicted everything that has happened since then.

I expect the worst is yet to come but if you think SDI is attractively valued... then buy!

Management doesn't, so I don't either.

The next months/years will bring enough attractive opportunities.

Look at the bond markets. The interest rate structure will tell you what will happen!

For me, the time to be greedy has not yet come. But I have been around long enough to be patient while others suffer greedily from FOMO.

I am not afraid of missing out on 5, 10 or 20% in a new bull market.

But my first rule is never to lose money.

Wait for a stable uptrend in an environment where monetary policy and fiscal policy are for the markets and not against them.

As long as the central banks are withdrawing money from the markets and the economy, there will be no new bull market.

Whoever thinks they want to reach into a falling knife, do it!

No investment recommendation!

[nchanning] 06/10/2023 16:24

The average length of a recession is 9 months ... Central banks cut interest rates in a recession . If you're predicting a 5 year recession sell all your stocks now buddy

[worldwidet] 06/10/2023 16:00

and now cancel the COVID bonus and set the interest rate level from 1% to over 5%. Cancel strong economic growth and supplement it with a deep recession and ask yourself if the environment for the next 5 years is as fine as the last 5 years you are highlighting!

Wake up, the environment has changed! No one is interested in the past, what counts is looking forward! That is the stock market!


82p and still no purchases by management.

The CEO does not buy shares.
The Chairman does not BUY shares.
The CFO does not buy shares.
The COO does not buy shares.

None of the SDI executives are buying shares.

Something is going mighty wrong in SDI management!

Or they know something we don't know and are doing everything right not to buy...

[trident5] 06/10/2023 15:54

Normalised EPS up from 2p to 7p 2018 to 2024, book value per share up from 14p to 40p (2018 -2023).

Seems to be working just fine.

[worldwidet] 06/10/2023 15:23

SDI has often relied on intermediaries for M&A. The same is true for recruitment.
A really robust M&A structure was never developed. An in-house M&A department to take care of the development of M&A networks and M&A activities.
It also failed to implement a structure for internal leadership development.
Executives had to be expensively recruited from outside.
Why are there no executives in the whole group who are able to move to HQ?
Why are external intermediaries always used for M&A?
Why don't SDI executives buy shares?
Simply because the CEO has failed on all these lines!
He has failed to implement a certain genetics, i.e. a certain culture.
If the CEO doesn't own shares, the other leaders won't either. If the CEO wants to solve all the problems at the same time and alone then so do the other executives.
A new management has to take over at SDI. Executives who commit to SDI with their own money through shares and who then implement their own culture at SDI and develop quality executives.
I would want to have a compensation system that doesn't always give away stock options to executives and dilute shareholders.
Managers should get a fixed salary and a performance bonus in cash with which they have to buy shares on the market and keep them for at least 5 years.

[fuji99] 06/10/2023 14:32

WorldwideT: "CEO permanently relies on external expertise and advisors in all areas." This is very dangerous to any business because relying on EXTERNAL expertise all the time may become very expensive and sometimes not reliable at all if nobody within is able to verify/challenge the external findings or proposals. To be dependent on others is a trap and can easily become blackmail.

[isa1m] 05/10/2023 16:43

Thanks, WorldwideT,
I do agree with most of what you say. Question for me is: do they want to rescue the buyandbuild model, or is SDI worth less than its breakup value.

[worldwidet] 05/10/2023 14:51

I have always adapted my expectations of the share price to the framework conditions. The picture for the economy and the stock markets, and thus also SDI, is becoming increasingly gloomy.


I can't tell you what SDI management is doing right now. But I can tell you what they are definitely NOT doing right now and that is buying massive amounts of shares.


If the CEO does not buy shares but sells them massively, it is already a bad thing. But if none of the executives (neither the CFO nor the COO nor the Chairman) are buying shares massively at this price level, why should I?

The problem is that the CEO has not built a quality leadership team and solid structures for long-term growth over the past years.

CEO permanently relies on external expertise and advisors in all areas.

I am also very sure after the Monmouth disaster that more skeletons will surface in the coming recession. The large and expensive acquisition of Fraser with shares in China, for example, could give potential for further impairments.

I would imagine that SDI is extremely busy right now trying to shore up existing business as much as possible while orders are increasingly being lost. M&A does not play a role at the moment because there is no money anyway.

I think 60-80P is a possible range in a market-wide panic sell-off.

And that sell-off will come. Look at the chaos in the bond markets.

It is absolutely suicidal to try to catch the falling knife of an AIM share in such a strong downtrend in the middle of a recession.

What's wrong with waiting until conditions improve and the share enters a stable uptrend on high volume? It must be sheer greed or desperation to try to win something here.

If the executives don't buy... The stupid money of small investors has been desperately trying to play the investment hero here for 12 months.

[isa1m] 05/10/2023 14:31

To WorldwideT.
In August you said 90-100p might be interesting. In September you thought 80-90p. Now we're in that range, you're saying 60-80p. I have to give you a lot of credit for predicting the fall (so far).
Certainly the usual fanboys are quiet.
What does the SDI board do next?