Sci Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[dope007] 04/9/2008 10:56

Good post Darren and whilst reading it the the memories flood back.

Carmageddon 2 if it succeeds SEG survive and move on
TIJ if it succeeds SEG survive and move on
Then came CDS success was needed but it was bigger than anyone imagined
Then came Hitman and TRL after the takeover.

And here we are now and it is all on one game again. It really shows how wrong things have gone that so much money and success through Eidos and SEG books has ended up here!!!!

[darrens] 04/9/2008 10:51

dealy, the market has a view that SCi is not in a very good state of health. It has constantly disappointed in terms of profits, has never been able to fund itself, has sacked the Board and appointed unproven and untested people, and is in an industry littered with casualties.

Now, I realise that you think differently, without putting words into your mouth you may say that is all true but that's looking backwards and you need to look forwards. But the market sees SCi as one of the losers and Ubisoft as one of the winners, and that surely isn't hard to understand given their recent histories?

If SCi can put together a decent run of financials then the market will change its view but a) it needs to do that and b) it will take some time to remove the stink.

Why do I think they've bet the company on TRU? Well, because of the timing. They're releasing it into the Xmas window where it will have to compete with all the industry big hitters and they'll be out of cash (or thereabouts) once they've published it. Their cash position is going to solely depend on how well that title does and I think the game will need to sell very well for them not to have to come back to the markets for a rescue rights in the next 12 months.

If they'd released it outside the Xmas window then I think they would have guaranteed survival but without the upside opportunity that Xmas gives you. I think they are mad to release it when they are (why increase the risk when the risks are high enough?) but they've done what they've done so now it's just a matter of watching and waiting and seeing how it does.

The initial previews have been encouraging and there are reasons to be optimistic. The one big problem is that Prince of Persia is slated to be released at pretty much the same time and those games will eat each other's sales. So, not just the industries big hitters but PoP too and Ubisoft need that title to do very well so they'll be throwing their weight behind it.

That's why SCi need to do the same imho. No point clinging on for another 6 months with money saved on the TRU marketing budget. Just throw the whole lot at the title: death or glory.

[dealy] 04/9/2008 10:36

So according to latest RNS it was Cantor Fitzgerald who dumped the 8.9m shares on Tuesday. That's nearly 4% of the company. I expect another RNS later saying that somebody has either added or become a new >3% shareholder.

[dealy] 04/9/2008 10:30

The company has a portfolio of games that have been illustrated here by togglebrush and presented in the header. Substantial cash has been spent to get the entire portfolio to market and all of the games (and not just TRU) can contribute to cash flow generation over the next 12 months.

DarrenS, how can explain the valuation differential between Ubisoft (3 billion euro market cap equating to 3 times sales and 29 times forecast 2009 earnings) and Sci (£80m market cap equating to say 0.5 times sales and certainly not 29 times earnings - probably not even 5 times 2009 earnings)? Logic would say to me that there is infinitely greater risk of Ubisoft not meeting expectations than Sci. Why do believe the company has bet the house on one game?

[darrens] 04/9/2008 08:27

lionheart, firstly sorry to hear that you were made redundant although I hope that things have turned out well for you.

I also agree with your "net cash" point - it'll all be gone by Christmas which means....

As I said previously, the only thing that matters for SCi is TRU. I'm not sure if they did this consciously or unwittingly but they've bet the whole company on TRU.

If that's a hit then their future is assured for at least the next 12 months and I expect the share price to rally accordingly.

If that gets lost amongst the Xmas heavy hitters, or if everybody decided to buy Prince of Persia instead, then they're bust.

My only hope for SCi is that they realise that they've bet the company on TRU and give it the corresponding marketing budget (i.e. everything they've got, including the overdraft).

I'll be seeing them after the results and I will ask them.

[lionheart79] 03/9/2008 23:14

well after being made redundant by this sorry company a few months ago is there anything to show in terms of progress? nothing to make me take a punt on the shares yet in any case.

dealy - you quote net cash a lot but even with the reductions in head count the monthly cash burn is too high. TRU needs to be a big hit or the redundancies won't have stopped with me.

[the crypt] 03/9/2008 15:46

lol! Zelig.... do i DETECT a wiseguy?

[zelig] 03/9/2008 15:25

Hip..Hi....sorry, couldn't muster the energy.

[the crypt] 03/9/2008 14:07

come on guys welcome me back from me overseas adventures.....

[the crypt] 03/9/2008 11:18

hooorrrrraaaaay

[the crypt] 03/9/2008 08:49

lol lol lol - Yippeeeeeee back innthe UK. LOads of extra posting time..... lol ....three hips for Crypty! Hip Hip Hip................

[the crypt] 02/9/2008 15:44

Pretty poor day

[togglebrush] 02/9/2008 06:35

This is a buyers market. SEG is the preferred bargain in a market full of bargains. Sentiment has returned to SEG... nice.

[zelig] 01/9/2008 19:31

The 8952033 is the two 4million trades added together for some reason, so that may have skewed the total trades for today. Either way, I like those apples!

[coley007] 01/9/2008 18:22

Some largish buys late in the day today :

16:41 34.50p 8,952,033 £3,088,451 Buy O
16:25 34.50p 4,831,110 £1,666,733 Buy NT
16:25 34.50p 4,120,923 £1,421,718 Buy NT

[dealy] 01/9/2008 17:26

Toggle

according to advfn the volume was 18m and that doesn't include Plus markets which was at least 1.5m because that was just one trade. So at least 20m shares traded or 8%.

Something must be up!

[togglebrush] 01/9/2008 16:51

Volume 9,615,253 on my system and we haven't seen volume like that since the end of the placing in late May. In fact anything over 500,000 has been very rare since Mid July ! The median since placing is something like 380,000.

Price closed up 2p as well. Very interesting !

[dealy] 01/9/2008 15:47

Finally volume!

7% of the company's shares were traded today!

[dealy] 01/9/2008 14:00

Somebody bought 1.49m shares at 33p on Plus markets. Mark has just gone in (if you click on level 2 here you can see the Plus market trades).

That's obviously why we are moving up. The overhang may have been cleared.

[the crypt] 01/9/2008 13:32

should start to see a recovery in the run up to the results. maybe get up to 43p.

[the crypt] 01/9/2008 12:09

david one day you may be able to afford a holiday!!!! lol.

[davidbennett] 01/9/2008 11:37

Tempted to buy more...

[dealy] 01/9/2008 10:12

offer moved up to 35p. Something's cooking.

[dealy] 01/9/2008 06:58

Stronger dollar should boost EPS in pence from now on.

[the crypt] 31/8/2008 15:08

about time a new board was started!