Schroder Real Estate Inv... Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 25/5/2021 18:09

Facts back you up theprovosts.

Time and again broker buys perform badly while broker sells often go on to do well. Not my opinion but facts from research on all broker buys and sells. A couplec of years ago when BATS had the most buy recommendations of any share it turned out to be THE worst performing FTSE 100 share that year!

And armed with the same information some brokers say sell and others buy, and with wildly different target prices. So take those with a pinch of salt too.

[badtime] 25/5/2021 18:06

Totally agree EI...daft with no logic behind it

[shieldbug] 25/5/2021 16:25

I just enquired about taking a stand at a UK trade show that is advertised to take place in September. They have just decided to postpone it until next April. It seems as though there is a complete lack of Covid risk tolerance. Very frustrating. But still I don't see massive destruction to property prices in the medium term.

[theprovosts] 25/5/2021 16:21

My general approach to not only ignore the broker comments, but do the opposite of their well timed "opinions" has served me well over the years. Like last years bearish comments on Iron Ore at $500, just after the drop from $700. The timing of their sell calls almost always lines up perfectly with the best time to buy.

These analysts are analysts for a reason, they are not good enough to trade other peoples money, so they choose to do their best at persuading other people to loose it.

[chucko1] 25/5/2021 13:33

The report was a part of the annual Barclays Equity-Gilts study. I cannot see the degree of Real Estate expertise used in its compilation. Lots of use of words such as "could" and "up to".

[chucko1] 25/5/2021 13:25

Many REITs off a few percent. BREI, RGL for starters as well as SREI. Picking them up as we (type).

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2021 13:08

GPOR made some interesting comments on office valuation last week re ESG
requirements potentially compressing valuations.

[chucko1] 25/5/2021 12:54

Barclays put out a negative note on Office properties. Sees a 20% reduction in demand, whereas a sustained buoyancy in residential.

But not a substantial or insightful report, although recent. Adds nothing to the hot debate, as far as I can see at first report.

[frazboy] 25/5/2021 12:49

It looked like several of the REITs dropped at once so clearly some sector specific news - renewed local lockdowns perhaps or office concerns? Perhaps both but SREI and SLI starting to offer value again. RGL not so much.

[essentialinvestor] 25/5/2021 12:36

Talk of local lockdowns today, unless it's news on the moratorium that I've missed.

We are seeing some unwind of the economy reopening trade as mentioned last week.



I don't see justification for further restrictions, particularly as vulnerable
groups have now been offered the vaccine. We would essentially be locking down to protect a demographic that has largely opted not to be vaccinated.

[shieldbug] 25/5/2021 12:25

Dividend should be announced next week. Looks like some negative momentum here which hopefully the dividend will reverse. Lets hope there is good news on NAV too.

[nickrl] 21/5/2021 20:40

Seems too many headlines telling us how great sales after every reopening which is hardly surprising given everything's been shut for months. How much of this pent up demand remains after a few months will give more certainty of where economy headed. Also lets not forget various govt support schemes also winding down over next few months so more support dropping away. Not suggesting we will be seeing any big retrenchment from here but it will be a year plus before we will find what the new balance is for wfh vs office or retail vs online but for income seekers those that have rebased are now on a sustainable footing and if they go up from there all the better.

[essentialinvestor] 21/5/2021 14:13

GRG, thought I might be able to pick some up near £11 a share,
that looks risible now - and that is being kind.

[spectoacc] 21/5/2021 14:10

Some undoubtedly got ahead of themselves. Amazes me how some went above pre-pandemic highs (eg Greggs), some multi-bagged off lows yet have hugely uncertain futures & greatly increased debt (eg CINE), & others just aren't pricing in much downside (eg RYA).

Give me a REIT anytime, with real assets, trading on a c.25% discount and paying 5-7% divi, with a pandemic-proven business model.

[essentialinvestor] 21/5/2021 14:06

Some of the "economy reopening" stocks are off fairly sharply this week.

[spectoacc] 21/5/2021 13:57

The big REITS off today (BLND -3.3%, LAND -2.2%), so is possible it's more than thin market in some of the smaller ones.

I don't rate offices & no longer hold RGL too. Not the worst sector, but going to be a lot of Capex needed & a lot of incentives. Much better than retail, probably not as good as Retail Park, and nothing on industrial or last mile.

Leisure might be due a resurgence, how long will the holiday restrictions last..

[hindsight] 21/5/2021 13:57

On my list the office seem to be holding up best, opening struggling and industrial falling. TRY got to par, now retreated, so was a good indication that sentiment may have been too high

[essentialinvestor] 21/5/2021 13:53

Hi spec, thanks for the view - yes have noticed RGL which I unfortunately don't hold.

It may seem counterintuitive that an office REIT is outperforming,
however as I have mentioned elsewhere, the death of the office is too simple a narrative
and one that is significantly overstated.

[spectoacc] 21/5/2021 13:23

RGL the opposite; feels like sellers in a very quiet market. Seems to be summer already (except outside).

[essentialinvestor] 21/5/2021 13:22

Hi folks, any ideas on the weakness in some of the UK focussed REITS this week?.

Moratorium rolled over again?, selling of economy reopening stocks,
or valuations on distribution assets may have peaked?.

[skyship] 08/5/2021 11:14

New investment and asset management initiatives will increase the EPS; however for the time-being I wouldn't expect them to increase beyond 4 x 0.625p for a 2.5p annual dividend.

At my 50p share price target & 60p NAV target, the discount would be 16.7% and the yield 5%. Still pretty good value.

[flyer61] 08/5/2021 10:36

Skyship....what are your next dividend forecasts for SREI date and amount please.

Trying to weight up whether to continue accumulating on down days.

If NAV hits 60p they are presently on a 25% discount, IMHO that is still attractive.

[skyship] 06/5/2021 16:24

Expecting an NAV of 60p when we get the Mar'21 valuation with the Finals next month.

[skyship] 06/5/2021 16:19

nick - thnx for that - a very positive presentation - shares still cheap and 50p looking baked in.

Especially interesting to hear his positive views on regional offices; and on the success of the buybacks.

[nickrl] 06/5/2021 14:54

SREI were featured on quoted data last week

hxxps://quoteddata.com/weeklyshow300421-nickmontgomery/

City Tower was raised they reckon they have a gameplan now to refurbished the floors and fit out a few of them to make them more marketable. Say have now let one floor. Don't want to be a Regus though.

Board debates regularly whether to buyback or invest didn't give a view as to where its going but lack of buybacks for last few weeks may be a clue.