San Leon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[triple seven] 23/3/2017 12:07

Nice post and to the pointI'm like you really, can't blame anyone but my self. Charttrader you should read that post and hang your head in shame.Move on.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 11:52

chart trader, "what's your opinion on TOSCA's intentions ?"

I think Tosca are going to make a lot of money, or at the very least get back their previous losses plus some. When they already own the company, buying just because they are is a not necessarily a good idea. |I think lots of other people think that too, otherwise the price would be right up around the @75p (somewhere near the reported stated interest).

What's good for Tosca, who can do whatever they like with the vehicle that is S.L.E., isn't necessarily good for other shareholders.

I have no idea what their intentions are. There's some big losses on the books that could be very valuable to them (but not to anyone else who is a shareholder). I don't think they'll screw-over the larger investors who they got on board for the OML 18 deal. They'll let them out with a reasonable return on the cash put up at a minimum. That might mean they have to treat everyone else holding shares the same, but if they don't, and have taken the company private, how many of us would throw more money in to take them to court?

Plus, giving people a fair return on @45p over a year or 18 months or 2 years ... well, it isn't likely to do me any good holding @669p, is it?

So, I hope SLE actually pay out some dividends, as is laid out in the Nigeria plan, if they ever get any cash off Eroton, and they stay on the open market. In that case the shares should go up a bit, I'll get a few pence per share dividend or two, and I might get out with an 80% or 70% loss rather than my current 92% (something round there when I last looked). SLE have other revenue streams supposedly too, I'm not sure they can really work out until the Eroton cash comes through ... I had a good handle on it at one point, but I have too much else going on to retain it all in memory given the actual amounts involved.

I wrote this stock off a long time ago, so if I get anything back at all it will be a bonus. An 80% loss or 'better' would start to be a result at this stage. I could sell in the open market now, of course, but its neither here nor there in the overall scheme of things. Ultimately, realising the losses and putting them against tax might be worth more than the value I get for selling the shares at the current price.

I think Tosca may have something similar in mind. That's why when I was trading the stock, I wouldn't pay over the @45p placement price. Which I did explain at length in a post elsewhere at the time I was doing it. It was still a risk anyway, because if news came out that the interest @80p was finished, then the price prior to that was about @41P, so even buying @45p there was quite a loss you could be looking at with the spread to take into account as well.

Tosca do have to maintain a reputation ... not that it seems to make much difference with goings-on at Speedy Hire or whatever that company is. But that's a bit different, trying to kick a CEO off a board, well, that's what 'activist' hedge funds do.

I mean, if they were to take the company private and NOT give money back to shareholders with a reasonable return to those who put up in the placing or bought since, then they might find it a lot harder to do deals in future. That seems to be about the one protection long time shareholders have.

Why Tosca haven't got rid of O.F. is a complete mystery, given the situation mentioned above. I did make a hint in a previous post, and I'll leave it at that.

I don't blame Tosca for what they are doing or whatever happens, by the way. But I wont ever go near another company that has O.F. on the board though. If he comes out of this still being allowed to be a director, that is. Even if he is just totally incompetent, there's no excuse for the salary that he has pulled down. FTSE 100 level stuff, never mind a company that has never had profits or even revenues to speak of.

As you can tell, I doubt he was behind the OML 18 deal. If he was, he did a fantastic job selling it to a notoriously tough hedge fund, after having run SLE almost totally into the ground.

You'll gather that I don't place much value on their other assets either. They did prove up some good stuff in Poland ... and then sold it off to a company set-up by an ex-SLE board member, if I remember correctly. I believe that's happily producing now, though I haven't kept an eye on it. Linksdean may be able to tell us.

Barryroe; I pretty much believe deep offshore stuff is dead in the water .
Morocco; A disputed area where mineral exploitation has been prohibited by the UN.
Poland; They're obviously going to sell what's left and worth anything as soon as someone makes them a bid, and that'll just be swallowed by the scale of the OML 18 stuff and outstanding debts.
Is there anything else left? They were on about France at one point, which has a ban on fracking and they're never gonna lift it. Nuclear lobby is too strong. That was always ridiculous.
Albania? - more offshore stuff. I'm not sure the license didn't lapse or something, they certainly let some go.

The whole thing just became an exercise in buying up real estate with a few seismic surveys and no real plan of ever producing, as far as I can tell.

Still, no use crying over spilt milk, is there? So we just get on with it and try and learn from our mistakes. Like checking board salaries on exploration companies that have never earned anything yet. That's a lot easier than it used to be, and outlandish slaraies are far more likely to be challenged now than they were just five years ago.

If I'm completely wrong and cash starts rolling in at some kind of reasonable level, well, I'll happily admit I was wrong. I doubt I'll ever get my cash back though, let alone a return on it for all the years it will have been tied up for. A couple of pence a share on my old holding isn't going to be worth a lot - it will move the share price though if a dividend ever gets paid.

[triple seven] 23/3/2017 11:05

No problem Eadwig, it's a crazy world out there at this moment,as we all saw yesterday in London.Puts things into perspective really.Have a good day. Gla

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 10:50

And there is another reason for not posting the exact price that you got for an order. It can be too easily traced and converted into amounts as chart trader has just done, or at least i only just saw the post.

In the case highlighted I'd have said I sold @54p or possibly @54.xp, which is close enough for the purposes of live trades with a rounded percentage profit or loss.

If you think sites like these aren't being spidered for for worthwhile targets transacting online to pass on alerts to people or organisations gathering data on potential victims, then you need to think again about what you are revealing and your overall security.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 10:28

chart trader,

I do post >50% of my trades live. I.e. The price I've bought at before any sale is made. I often also post limit buy and sell orders when I have placed them, not knowing whether or not they'll execute at some future point. Once I've posted a live buy, I always try to ensure I post the sale, win lose or draw. It can be a bit embarrassing, but who doesn't make mistakes from time to time.

I do it partly for my own quick check-up records, but also because if you never do it then you boast about making a good trade, I think people are entitled to ask, "why didn't you even mention that you had bought some?".

A lot of the boards I post trades on I'm often the only one reading them - or posting to them anyway.

Owning them keeps you from kidding yourself, or anyone else, that you're doing better than you are. It also gives your posts integrity - so you're more likely to get help when asking for it with research etc. Or that's the theory. Doesn't really work with SLE - too much bad feeling about. I don't know if you noticed that.

But - I don't post them on ADVFN (apart from the slightly delayed stuff about WTI Long, which is still open and underwater), not least because the threads seem to be over-large and full of a lot of off-topic rubbish. And on-topic rubbish, come to that.

[eadwig] 23/3/2017 10:14

triple seven, "I didn't say it was going to happen,just posted the link. But as you say you never now what's in store do we?"

I see. Info purposes only, which is fair enough. Sorry if I inferred it was your opinion. Plus, after I posted saying there wasn't one person agreeing with the article, I realised that is pretty much the definition of a contrarian view! Which was the whole point of it.

I didn't agree either, but, like I said, with oil especially, you never know, not least because a massive part of the global reserves are in potentially unstable areas. That's probably why they're unstable, but that's another argument.

When I try and predict oil prices, or the direction of them anyway, I always try to remember to add the caveat about some political upheaval (inc. war) that might come out of nowhere, in which case all previous price prediction logic is out the window. Just in case anyone gets the idea I actually know what I'm talking about.