Shell Share Discussion Threads

[adg] 05/7/2021 11:30

I note that the differential between RDSA and RDSB has dropped to only 40p at a relatively high recent share price, the gap has been as high as 70p.

I have never fully understood the reasons for the gap despite some explanations being offered, voting rights WHT etc. - i have seen the gap near parity in the years gone by and have followed the gap along with the recent share price movements.

Would any of the more knowledgeable out there care to suggest a reason for this closing of the gap? Is it a sign of more confidence in Shell in general?

TIA

[waldron] 05/7/2021 07:46

European markets head for cautious open; oil price watched ahead of OPEC+ talks

Published Mon, Jul 5 20211:06 AM EDT

Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt


Key Points

European stocks are expected to open slightly higher on Monday as markets keep an eye on oil prices ahead of a crunch meeting of the OPEC+ oil producing alliance.

London’s FTSE is seen opening 13 points higher at 7,131, Germany’s DAX 8 points higher at 15,646, France’s CAC 40 up 3 points at 6,551, according to IG.

[husted] 05/7/2021 00:16

Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr 12h
So in summary the UAE is committed to the agreement that was signed last year and expires in April 2022. Anything beyond that date, the UAE would want it’s production baseline adjusted #OOTT #opec

Amena Bakr@Amena__Bakr 4h
Will the UAE walk out of Opec? The UAE’s energy minister told
@energyintel that his country never made that threat. #OOTT #opec

[misca2] 04/7/2021 21:13

The U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the July 4 holiday.

[gibbs1] 04/7/2021 18:08

WORLDOIL.COM



OPEC’s latest standoff puts the oil cartel’s survival at risk

By Javier Blas on 7/4/2021


LONDON (Bloomberg) --A high-stakes game of oil diplomacy pits Saudi Arabia against long-time ally Abu Dhabi. And the result of their fight will shape not just the price of oil for the next year, but the future of the global energy industry.

The United Arab Emirates on Friday blocked an OPEC+ deal that cartel leaders Russia and Saudi Arabia hashed out to increase output, demanding better terms for itself. After two days of bitter negotiations, and with the UAE the only holdout, ministers halted the discussions until Monday, leaving markets in limbo as oil continued its inflationary surge above $75 a barrel.



Despite diplomatic talks continuing, the standoff appeared to continue on Sunday, with the UAE reiterating its demands.

Abu Dhabi is forcing its allies into a difficult position: accept its requests, or risk unraveling the OPEC+ alliance. Failure to reach a deal would squeeze an already tight market, potentially sending crude prices sharply higher. But a more dramatic scenario is also in play -- OPEC+ unity may break down entirely, risking a free-for-all that would crash prices in a repeat of the crisis last year.

As in all negotiations, there may be an element of bluff. Late last year, Abu Dhabi even floated the idea of leaving OPEC. While this time the UAE hasn’t repeated the threat, no one even at the heart of the talks is sure what could happen if negotiations fail on Monday.

An exit would almost certainly trigger a price war -- and in that scenario everyone loses. The bluff is to show your country is ready to take the pain better than the others.

But there’s also a more subtle poker game playing out, and in that hand, the UAE has some cards. The country wants to pump more oil after spending billions to increase production capacity. At some point, the others in the alliance will probably have to recognize Abu Dhabi’s new status, redrawing the terms of engagement to allow it to pump more.

“The UAE will push hard at this juncture to use this meeting to get their excess capacity recognized and brought back online,” said Roger Diwan, oil analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd. “Compromise exists, but it is just how they bring their capacity, not if.”

OPEC Math

At the center of the dispute is a word key to OPEC+ output agreements: baselines. Each country measures its production cuts or increases against a baseline. The higher that number, the more a country will be allowed to pump. The UAE says its current level, set at about 3.2 million barrels a day in April 2020, is too low, and says it should be 3.8 million.

“This was an inevitable fight,” said Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “The differences are real and the UAE will continue to make noise until it achieves a higher baseline.”

The current OPEC+ production deal ends in April 2022, when every country will be able to re-negotiate its baseline. But now Saudi Arabia and Russia, with the support of everyone else at OPEC+, want to extend the agreement to the end of next year. The UAE has rejected the idea of extending the broader accord unless its baseline is changed, effectively killing the proposal negotiated by Moscow and Riyadh.

There was no sign of progress as of Sunday morning in Abu Dhabi, with the UAE still refusing to agree to an extension on current terms.

“The UAE is for an unconditional increase of production,” but a decision to extend the deal until the end of 2022 is “unnecessary to take now,” Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “We still have eight to nine months in this agreement, and we’re talking about plenty of time for this to be discussed at a later stage.”

In April 2020, Abu Dhabi accepted its current baseline, but it doesn’t want the straitjacket to stay on for even longer. Abu Dhabi has spent heavily to expand production capacity, attracting foreign companies including French oil giant TotalEnergies SE. With Iran potentially returning to the oil market soon if it reaches a nuclear deal, patience for getting new terms is wearing out.

Claiming a higher baseline is different to having one. Often countries make outlandish declarations of how much oil they can produce -- just to get a better deal. Few take those assertions seriously.

But last year the UAE proved it had the extra barrels. During the price war, it pumped a record of 3.84 million barrels a day, according to OPEC estimates. Abu Dhabi says it produced more than 4 million. Before then, it had never produced more than 3.2 million and few believed it was able to produce much more. Now it can prove it has the barrels, that strengthens its hand in the negotiation.

The Emirate proposal would even benefit Saudi Arabia, which could also secure for itself a higher baseline. But Riyadh has rejected it. The biggest loser would be Russia, which would see a much lower output target. And Saudi Arabia needs Russia onside.

Aside from cartel arithmetic, geopolitical tensions are also in play.

The country’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, once enjoyed close relations with the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. But the relationship between the two heirs appears to have cooled in recent months. And Abu Dhabi is flexing its muscles beyond the oil market, with bold geopolitical moves from Yemen to Israel. In another sign of tension as the OPEC standoff intensified on Friday night, Saudi Arabia moved to restrict citizens’ travel to the UAE, citing the pandemic.

Bad Timing

OPEC has been here before. There’s often friction in member countries between the oil ministry, which deals with the cartel and commits to quotas, and the national oil companies, whose priority often is to expand production capacity. In this case, Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., led the charge to increase capacity.

In the 1990s, it was Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state-owned company of the Latin America country, which pushed ahead with an aggressive capacity expansion. With oil demand growing slowly in the 1990s, Caracas and Riyadh clashed, and the fight ultimately triggered a price war in 1998 that saw Brent crude plunge below $10 a barrel.

In the 2000s, Algerian national energy giant Sonatrach SpA did the same, but benefited from better timing: booming Chinese oil demand allowed it to lift production 60% from 1996 to 2006 with the tacit consent of OPEC.

Adnoc’s push was hindered by two factors: U.S. shale production and the coronavirus pandemic, both of which dented demand for OPEC barrels over the last five years. Al Jaber misread the market, or was unlucky with the timing.

Who wins the standoff this time may depend on luck, a bit of bluffing, and who fears he has the most to lose from OPEC unraveling.

[waldron] 04/7/2021 11:50

TROPICAL STORM ELSA

[florenceorbis] 03/7/2021 15:12

Ariane
1 Jul '21 - 21:02 - 17811 of 17826
0 4 0
Certainly a possibilty that RSB will increase its divi yield

present yields for european oilies for comparison


totalenergies 7.04pc


Eni 6.73pc

BP 4.82pc

RDSB 3.55pc


LIKE THE LOOK OF TOTAL

[sarkasm] 03/7/2021 12:01

RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria maintains his buy rating on the stock. The price target remains at GBX 2,200.

[sarkasm] 03/7/2021 10:21

JULY/29/2021 Interim 2021 Earnings Release

[skinny] 03/7/2021 10:08

Thanks for the link - interesting read - also as a PHNX and AV. holder! :-)

[la forge] 03/7/2021 09:02

Masurenguy
3 Jul '21 - 08:01 - 17822 of 17822

Thanks for that

i look forward to a substantial increase in share price possibly as early as mid to end of july

take care

[masurenguy] 03/7/2021 08:01

"I read a pretty good article today about how it's possible that at the end of this year, our world demand for oil will be running at 101m barrels a day. And the maximum production – even if the Saudis ramp up and everyone else ramps up, including Iran, is 100m barrels a day. And we know that all you need is a very small deficit in terms of production to send prices through the roof, and these oil majors are going to make a very large amount of money. The divestiture by pension funds, and by the sovereign wealth funds and so forth from these oil companies is largely complete. So I think you could see a very big upsurge in the share prices of these things." Jim Mellon

[la forge] 03/7/2021 07:40

OPEC DEAL DELAYED UNTIL SOMETIME MONDAY PERHAPS

[skinny] 02/7/2021 14:34

.






Update on Refhyne II

ITM Power (AIM: ITM), the energy storage and clean fuel company, is pleased to note the announcement by Shell today concerning the start-up of the 10 MW Refhyne I project and an update on the planned expansion to 100MW for Refhyne II. The full text of the announcement is set out below.

Shell starts up Europe's largest PEM green hydrogen electrolyser

The project, backed by a European consortium, will accelerate hydrogen production and contribute to Europe's goal to achieve climate neutrality

Wesseling, Germany - Europe's largest PEM hydrogen electrolyser*, today began operations at Shell's Energy and Chemicals Park Rheinland, producing green hydrogen.

As part of the Refhyne European consortium and with European Commission funding through the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU), the fully operational plant is the first to use this technology at such a large scale in a refinery.

Plans are under way to expand capacity of the electrolyser from 10 megawatts to 100 megawatts at the Rheinland site, near Cologne, where Shell also intends to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) using renewable power and biomass in the future. A plant for liquefied renewable natural gas (bio-LNG) is also in development.

"This project demonstrates a new kind of energy future and a model of lower-carbon energy production that can be replicated worldwide," Shell's Downstream Director, Huibert Vigeveno, said at today's official opening ceremony.

"Shell wants to become a leading supplier of green hydrogen for industrial and transport customers in Germany," he added. "We will be involved in the whole process - from power generation, using offshore wind, to hydrogen production and distribution across sectors. We want to be the partner of choice for our customers as we help them decarbonise."

Shell has a target to become a net-zero-emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society. As part of its Powering Progress strategy, Shell plans to transform its refinery footprint to five core energy and chemicals parks. This means Shell will reduce the production of traditional fuels by 55% by 2030.

The Rheinland electrolyser will use renewable electricity to produce up to 1,300 tonnes of green hydrogen a year. This will initially be used to produce fuels with lower carbon intensity. The green hydrogen will also be used to help decarbonise other industries.

The European consortium backing the project consists of Shell, ITM Power, research organisation SINTEF, consultants Sphera and Element Energy. The electrolyser was manufactured by ITM power in Sheffield, UK, and includes parts made in Italy, Sweden, Spain and Germany.

Armin Laschet, North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister-President, said: "We are a hydrogen region. With the commissioning of the largest PEM electrolysis plant in Europe, we are further expanding our leading role in this field. We are therefore laying the foundation for a modern and green industry, with highly skilled jobs. Today, 30% of German demand for hydrogen already comes from North Rhine-Westphalia's industry. Estimates predict that demand will double by 2030. This is why we need innovative solutions that will meet the demand for CO2-neutral hydrogen. Projects such as Refhyne demonstrate how innovation can benefit both the environment and the economy."

Bart Biebuyck, Executive Director of FCH JU, said: "In order to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, we need to fundamentally reshape our energy system. Clean hydrogen will play a key role in e-mobility and in industry, as it has great potential for decarbonising sectors where direct use of renewable energy is not possible. Accordingly, we want to accelerate the market launch of fuel cells and hydrogen technology and tap into their advantages in Europe."

Dr Graham Cooley, CEO of ITM Power, said: "We'd like to congratulate our partners on the successful start-up of Europe's largest green hydrogen production plant. We all recognise that this is just the beginning of the journey to net zero. The next step, Refhyne II, is even bigger and would take us into the hundreds of megawatts for the first time, on our way to gigawatts deployments. The vision and commitment of Shell, North Rhine-Westphalia and the FCH JU show what can be achieved to deliver the world's commitments on climate change."

Alexandra Bech Gjørv, president and CEO of SINTEF said: "This is a big step towards a carbon-free future. SINTEF has been heavily involved in European electrolysis research for more than a decade, from fundamental development of materials and components to pilot projects. We are happy to see large-scale implementation as here in Refhyne. The green transition was something we talked about, now it is what we do. The transformation to the low-emission society is happening now and it is scaling up."

Notes to editors :

-- The Refhyne project is at the forefront of the effort to produce green hydrogen in Europe. Hydrogen will play a key role in the European Green Deal's climate targets by helping to decarbonise harder-toabate sectors such as transport and industry. The European Commission released a landmark Hydrogen Strategy in 2020.

-- Shell is also planning to produce sustainable and synthetic aviation fuel using renewable power and biogenic sources. The 100 MW electrolyser (Refhyne II) and SAF projects are at an advanced planning stage, with final investment decisions still pending. The consortium for Refhyne II has been invited to prepare the associated grant agreement with CINEA(1) .

-- Shell's energy and chemicals parks will be highly integrated with chemicals sites to make them even more efficient in producing low-carbon and synthetic fuels, as well as high-value products such as bitumen, lubricants and chemicals.

-- Shell Germany announced plans last year to reduce or compensate carbon emissions by more than a third within a decade - this includes its own emissions and its customers' greenhouse gas emissions when they use the products it sells. This corresponds to 30 million tonnes per year, or about a tenth of the government's CO2 reduction target for Germany by 2030.

-- *Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysers are more compact than a conventional alkaline electrolysers. They are suited to working with renewable energy sources because they can operate dynamically using varying loads of electricity. This allows PEM electrolysers to operate when wind and solar energy generation are cheapest.

(1) The invitation to the grant agreement preparation should not be regarded under any circumstances as a formal commitment by CINEA to provide financial support, as this depends on the satisfactory and timely conclusion of grant agreement preparation.

[xxxxxy] 02/7/2021 07:44

7:34amBreakdown in talks?The Opec group of oil nations meets regularly to determine production quotas for its member states. Alongside Russia and a few other oil exporting nations, the group is called Opec+. So why the disgreement this time? Bloomberg explains:Before the breakdown, the alliance appeared to have an agreement in principle to boost output 400,000 barrels a day each month from August to December to meet rising demand as economies recover from the pandemic. Opec+ ministers will reconvene today  as the dramatic turn of events leaves the market in limbo and tarnishes the cartel's carefully reconstructed reputation after last year's brutal Saudi Arabian-Russian price war.If Opec+ can't reach an agreement, it raises the possibility that crude will surge higher and add to mounting inflationary pressures in the global economy. Oil had just capped its best half since 2009 as the rapid rebound in energy demand in major economies outpaced the supply response. Citigroup said in a note before the standoff that it expects the market to remain in a deep deficit this quarter even, after accounting for a rise in output from Opec+."Another Opec+ implosion like last April is unlikely," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil consultancy Vanda Insights. "They have worked too hard over the past year to ditch the pact in a huff at this stage. I expect the tentative deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia to go through, but some sort of concession may be made to the UAE."7:26amOpec searches for a dealGood morning. Oil prices are riding high after the Opec group of crude-producing nations failed to agree a deal on output overnight.Brent headed towatrds $76 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was forced to postpone a decision on output after the United Arab Emirates blocked a deal.The standoff could ultimately lead to the Opec+ not increasing supply, which would mean that the cartel falls back on a previous agreement to keep production steady until April 2022... Daily Telegraph

[waldron] 02/7/2021 07:04

European stocks set for slightly higher open as investors await U.S. jobs report

Published Fri, Jul 2 20211:15 AM EDT

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC


Key Points

Economists expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to have grown by 706,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate falling from 5.8% to 5.6%, according to a Dow Jones survey.

Though the headline jobs figure is a key economic indicator, traders will likely be scrutinizing the change in average hourly earnings for any sudden uptick in wages.

European markets are heading for a cautiously higher open on Friday as investors look ahead to a closely-watched U.S. jobs report due later in the day.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 18 points higher at 7,142, Germany’s DAX is set to climb around 24 points to 15,628 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to add around 18 points to 6,572, according to IG data.

[husted] 01/7/2021 22:03

Shell say, on their investors website, that first priority is ~4% dividend per share growth annually.
Second priority is getting net debt below $65 billion.
Third priority is shareholder distributions of 20-30% of CFFO on reaching net debt of $65 billion.

So, as far I can see, we should see divided increasing more aggressively soon.

Because net debt was $71B in Q1 of this year from $75B in previous quarter , so target of $65B is in sight.

And gas prices have been particularly strong.