Shell Share Discussion Threads

[the white house] 30/9/2021 10:03

Best Q for 16 years in Nat GasAdded

[powereddrones] 30/9/2021 06:59

Guy riding a horse mocks people queuing for petrol.

----

What a time to be alive.

[waldron] 30/9/2021 06:39

European stocks set for higher open, brushing off market jitters elsewhere

Published Thu, Sep 30 202112:29 AM EDTUpdated 38 Min Ago

Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt
cnbc


Key Points

European stocks are expected to open higher on Thursday, unperturbed by declines in Asia-Pacific overnight and U.S. markets on Wednesday.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 14 points higher at 7,116, Germany’s DAX 41 points higher at 15,400, France’s CAC 40 up 16 points at 6,579 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 113 points higher at 25,511, according to data from IG.

[waldron] 30/9/2021 06:38

nice to see you

to see you nice

trust all is well fjg

take care

chuckle and cheers

[fjgooner] 30/9/2021 00:45

Energy crisis goes global... but investors in Shell are quids in

While the problems and risks are intensifying, some stocks are still making waves

[waldron] 29/9/2021 21:29

Groningen Gas Field to be Phased out Next Year Ahead of Time
Contributor
Zacks Equity Research Zacks
Published
Sep 29, 2021 2:26PM EDT

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Per the government of the Netherlands, gas production from the Groningen field, once biggest in Europe, will be stopped in 2022 (eight years earlier than planned) to lower the risk and damages from the earthquakes caused by drilling. Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij BV or NAM, a joint venture between Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A) and Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM is the operator of the field.

As part of the government’s preliminary plans, output at Groningen will be slashed by more than half to 3.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the year through October 2022, which will be the final year of regular production.

For decades, Groningen was a major gas supplier to Europe with its peak production reaching 88 billion cubic meters in 1976 and above 30 billion cubic meters just five years ago. However, earlier-than-planned halt of the Groningen gas field activity was induced by the frequently felt earth tremors with 3.4 magnitude earthquakes hitting the region in January 2018 as well as in early 2019. This contracted the extraction levels, forcing the government to cease production as soon as possible.

Back in 2013, before the field was detected to trigger drilling-related tremors that damaged buildings, Groningen extracted nearly 54 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. Following the earthquake at the start of 2019, an immediate step was taken to cut production at the field by the gas sector regulator.

Due to below-normal inventory levels, interruptions, repair work, lack of investment and increased demand from consumer, commercial and industrial users, gas prices in Europe and the United Kingdom reached new highs this month. Despite the favorable natural gas price scenario, a government official stated that the outlook for Groningen has not been altered.

Both Shell and Exxon Mobil with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), respectively, at present have a number of energy assets on the European continent. Therefore, the shutdown of production from the Groningen field is unlikely to be a headache for the oil majors in the long run.

[waldron] 29/9/2021 17:37

thanks lind

we can take from it what we will as the future is difficult to forecast as the last
6 months or so will confirm

The arab oil rich counrties et al will change their income mix as they go green and
go WATER DRILLING

Shame AMBROSE did not mention the impact the impact on shares during these crucial years

chuckle and cheers

take care

[lindowcross] 29/9/2021 17:21

On the subject of "peak oil" here's an extract from a Daily Telegraph article by Mr Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from 17th Feb 21

Peak oil demand is coming but first brace for an almighty supply crunch
The pandemic has distorted the immediate picture but not the underlying dynamics of the global crude market

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD

The greatest threat to Saudi Arabia and Russia over the next five years is a roaring bull market for crude oil, worse yet if prices spike to all-time highs of $150.

Such an outcome is probably baked into the pie already. There is not enough supply coming on stream to replace the structural decline in old oil wells. The crunch will come before electric vehicles eat seriously into global fuel demand.

The Saudis need to hold oil prices in the sweet spot of $60 to $70 - roughly where they are today. That is just high enough to keep the Kingdom afloat, but low enough to extend the oil era into the 2040s (they hope). But such calibration is beyond their power.

Once Brent punches through $100, the cost advantage switches rapidly to the green camp. It accelerates the migration of Big Money into more lucrative green tech - the final heave that finishes off fossils once and for all.




There is a paradox. Net-zero targets and good behaviour codes (ESG) make the problem worse before it gets better. Doubts over the long-term viability and morality of Big Oil - and fears of the long-tail legal risk - are closing the finance window. Talk of stranded assets scares away investors. Companies are reluctant to sink large sums into mega-projects that take seven years to reach fruition.

The leading oil names are scrambling to reinvent themselves as green transition companies. “Essentially, all the ‘majors’ have now acknowledged the climate emergency,â€� said Jean-Louis Le Mee from the energy hedge fund Westbeck Capital. “BP, Shell, Total, ENI, Equinor, Repsol are all adopting carbon neutral targets that can only be met by increasing spending on renewables and letting their oil production decline.â€A533;

Shell will cut oil output by 30pc this decade, BP by 40pc. “These are huge numbers. Exxon, Chevron and Conoco are behind but following the same path. They are the largest spenders on new oil projects around the world,â€ᦙ3; he said.

Mr Le Mee thinks the global economy is on the cusp of the greatest supply squeeze in the history of the oil markets. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both say we are in the early foothills of a Himalayan supercycle for commodities.


The world has turned its back on austerity. Keynesian reflation doctrines are triumphant. The Biden administration explicitly aims to run the US economy hot, with the help of the Federal Reserve. Global "green deals" amount to $16 trillion. “Itâ364;™s going to turbo-charge oil demand in 2022,â€�; said John Hess, head of Hess Corp.

This spending may be low-carbon in ultimate effect but in the short-run it is brown. The transition requires infrastructure. It requires bulldozers and trucks. It requires the mining of iron ore and thermal coal, and the shipment to steel foundries. It trumps the $10 trillion infrastructure blitz by China, India, Brazil. and the emerging market "mini-BRICs" of the last commodity supercycle.

If future demand is large, the shortfall in future supply is even larger. Investment of $600bn a year in non-Opec exploration and drilling is needed to keep the global show on the road. Spending collapsed after 2014 and has never recovered. Last year it was $300bn. It has been running at just 35pc of levels reached in the boom.

This catches up with you in the end. The last two super projects to enter supply were Norway’;s Johan Sverdrup and the Exxon-Hess Guyana venture. Henceforth it is a drought.

Goldman Sachs estimates that 9m to 10m barrels a day of future supply have vanished. That is a tenth of the world’s 100m barrels a day production. Remember that a swing of just 1m either way in normal times can flip the market from slump to price spike. Short-term demand is inelastic.

The elephant in the room is falling supply from non-Opec producers. These companies and regions (excluding US shale) were gently adding 500,000 barrels a day annually a year until recently. Goldman Sachs thinks they will soon be subtracting up to 1m barrels a day each year.

The pandemic has distorted the immediate picture but not the underlying dynamics. Global demand has fallen by 6m barrels a day. Two thirds of that is jet fuel. Aviation will come back fast as soon as the flying world is vaccinated.


Sitting in Europe, we must avoid the error of extrapolating from our lockdown psychosis. Oil use in China and India has already returned to pre-pandemic levels. There is a deficit of at least 1m barrels a day in the market. This will clear the global glut by the end of the second quarter.

Mr Hess expects a V-shaped recovery in demand, inadequately matched by “stickyâ€� U-shaped recovery in output. This time Americaâ€͐2;s shale frackers will not come to the rescue. In the glory days, they responded quickly and with gusto every time prices picked up. They made up the entire increase in global output over the last eight years.

"Shale’;s gone from a growth business to a harvest business. Too much money was thrown at shale from 2015 to 2017,�; he told IHS Markit’;s CeraWeek.

"Discipline broke down. Frackers went all out for expansion, gobbling up $80bn of equity investment, and much debt, to cover capex spending running at 130pc of cash flow. They lost three times that amount of money this year. There have been 80 bankruptcies.

“Sentiment has changed. It’s gone from ‘drill baby drill’, to show me the money,â€ᦙ3; he said. Frackers are being forced to cap reinvestment at 70pc and use the rest to pay down debt or pay dividends. They must refinance $100bn over the next four years," Mr Hess added.

Hess Corp is running just two rigs in the Bakken shale zone compared to eight in the heyday. Mr Hess says it will not go above four again even if oil prices soar. It is the same message from the big Texas frackers Pioneer and EOG. “Flat is the new normal.â€ʏ33;

The geology is eroding. Frackers have exploited their tier one properties. They are increasingly having to drill in tier two zones with lower yields. Many flattered their output before with heavy use of sand and chemicals. Now they face the payback of a steeper decline rate.


The Opec-Russia alliance has of course stabilised prices by taking 7m barrels a day out of production. That has yet to come back on stream and hangs over the market. Bulls are betting that global demand will rebound faster than the Saudis and Russian can reopen.

The larger question is whether Opec has the means to cover both the coming supply gap and normal demand growth, still running at 1m barrels a day annually despite EVs.

“The real fireworks could happen in 2022 or 2023. The risk is that even the Saudis run out of spare capacity and lose control of prices. Then it’s the 2007-2008 scenario,â€5533; said Mr Le Mee. That would bring $150 into view. Even $200 is possible before the shock breaks the economy.

Ten years from now we will be in another energy world. EVs will undercut combustion cars on purchase price by 2023 to 2024. At that point the switch will become a cascade. Western countries will roll out cash-for-clunker policies to take the old fleet off the road. The new middle class in China will leapfrog to EVs.

The trucking industry will be on the way to electrification or hydrogen. Jet fuel mandates will force up the share of green synthetic fuel for aviation.

By then we will be far past the point of peak oil demand and OPEC will be struggling to sell its output. But first we have to get through the next five years. Strap yourself in for the roller-coaster ride.

[waldron] 29/9/2021 16:25

U.S. Crude-Oil and Fuel Inventories Unexpectedly Rise

29 September 2021 - 05:20PM

Dow Jones News



By Dan Molinski

U.S. oil inventories surprisingly increased last week, while stockpiles of gasoline and other fuels also rose, according to data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration.

Benchmark U.S. oil prices that were slightly lower before the mostly bearish report drifted slightly higher afterward. The Nymex front-month crude contract for November delivery was recently up 0.4% at $75.63 a barrel.

Crude-oil stockpiles rose by 4.6 million barrels to 418.5 million barrels, and are now about 7% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted crude stockpiles would fall by 2.5 million barrels from the prior week.

Oil stored at Cushing, the delivery point for U.S. stocks, rose by 131,000 barrels from the previous week, to 34 million barrels, the EIA said in its weekly report.

U.S. crude-oil production rose by 500,000 barrels a day last week to 11.1 million barrels a day, according to EIA, as offshore output continued to recover from Hurricane Ida-caused shutdowns.

Gasoline stockpiles climbed by 193,000 barrels to 221.8 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for inventories to increase by 900,000 barrels from the previous week.

Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by 384,000 barrels to 129.7 million barrels, and are now about 12% below the five-year average, the EIA said. Analysts were forecasting a 1.3-million-barrel decline from the previous week.

The refining capacity utilization rate rose by 0.6 percentage points from the previous week to 88.1%, which was close to analysts' forecasts for a 0.8 percentage-point increase from the previous week.

U.S. oil inventories for the week ended Sept. 24:


Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
EIA data: +4.6 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6
Forecast: -2.5 +0.9 -1.3 +0.8


Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

Write to Dan Molinski at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 29, 2021 11:05 ET (15:05 GMT)

[cassini] 29/9/2021 15:03

Personally I think oil has a long future ahead of it, when reality is taken into account.

The thing that concerns me at the moment is Mr Market, and that's nothing to do with oil really.

I also hold BP. and DEC in this sector. I think I'll hold onto DEC as it is 99% in gas (a 'transition' fuel whose price is skyrocketing) and also very heavily hedged, plus pays a whopping dividend (best held in a SIPP to avoid all the withholding tax though).

BP. and RDSB though don't seem to know what they're about, they're trying to be fashionable.

[pursia] 29/9/2021 14:10

Is it not implicit in selling off the oil stocks that peak oil has arrived, manifested in share price moves exacerbated by the widespread move into ESG? Both these seem implausible to me. Oil demand I think will strengthen whilst the ESG trend will depress share prices in Oil stocks and the support services. But as the fraudulent way ESG is defined I believe ESG returns will not meet expectations, and consumers will still need oil - heating, travel, plastics, fertilisers etc. So I see long term return to higher prices on oil stocks rather than further falls - but as we all know calling oil is impossible. These are just my views.
Incidentally I own RDSB BP PFC WG HLX TRIN LAM. Some up some down. Most recently (last week) I sold my RDSB in my ordinary account and bought back more into my ISA.

[kipper999] 29/9/2021 13:23

Possibly....
But they went at 1,640.85
Happy with that
Good luck to all who remain holding.....

[the white house] 29/9/2021 13:07

Never Sell Shell

[kipper999] 29/9/2021 12:57

I must be in the same quandry as a lot of folks on here. Piled into BP & RDSB when Brent fell off a cliff Spring 2020. My average ended up being 998.9p with these.
Now, i'm looking at an almost 70% increase (ex dividends), all within my ISA. So many times have i sat grinning at my monitor, only to see good profits 'bleed' away as the share price tumbles. I feel i got the time to buy correct, so now it's deciding when to sell.
£16.38 as i type. Have decided to sell all at £16.50
That will take my p/f out of oil & gas totally, having been 43% of it recently. (sold BP into recent rally)
Am mostly cash now, having exited BATS this morning.
Only holding; CINE, CPI, IMB, HSBC, BHP & COIN now.....

[cassini] 29/9/2021 12:37

I'm getting a bit twitchy with this latest surge in the share price. Is it a rerating i.e. 'sticky' or is it yet another punt upwards to be followed by a similar sized fall shortly thereafter?

If it's a rerating it could go much higher but I've been suckered several times in the last year or so and don't fancy the ride back down yet again.

Some of it is to do with Shell's promise to return money from its Permian oilfield sale - BP hasn't risen so much - but presumably the market is already pricing that in.

Let's see how the US opens...

[waldron] 29/9/2021 07:46

European markets head for mixed open after U.S. sees rate-induced sell-off

Published Wed, Sep 29 20211:15 AM EDT

Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt
cnbc


Key Points

European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory on Wednesday as markets become nervous after a rate induced sell-off in the U.S. in the previous session.

The U.K.’s FTSE index is seen opening 2 points lower at 7,031, Germany’s DAX 14 points higher at 15,285 and France’s CAC 40 14 points higher at 6,425, according to IG data.

[scobak] 28/9/2021 19:39

That's almost Biblical, Cassini. Water into wine or is it alchemy, base metal into gold equivalent.

[cassini] 28/9/2021 18:26

That might have turned the E10 back into E5 or lower if she had left some water in those bottles. Water is miscible with ethanol but immiscible with octane etc, so the ethanol would preferentially have ended up in the water which could then be decanted off ;0)

Result, V-Power ;0)

[the white house] 28/9/2021 18:10

Double whammy for shareholders with the woman who bought half a dozen large plastic bottles of fizzy water from the Shell shop, poured them out on the forecourt and filled em up with unleaded as well as petrol tank