Rbg Share Discussion Threads

[lennonsalive] 28/7/2023 07:58

Elsa's posts have been insightful and informative

[se81] 28/7/2023 07:46

thanks Elsa- I don't think many on here (or at least myself) are interested on whether you are (or have been) right or wrong but useful information is always appreciated

What I want to know is when are the m'ment going to put their hands in their pockets?

[quepassa] 28/7/2023 07:29

charmer...?

ha ha!

and prey, just how would you characterise your non-stop comments about a certain one-time CEO...

vicious, spiteful, catty, obnoxious, vile or just downright bloody rude?

[tomtrudgian] 28/7/2023 07:12

Thanks. Very helpful, Elsa7878.
1/ How does Convex cost over £2m pa?
2/ Have the retained cases truthfully ended all litigation expense? If so settlements or judgements surely follow soon. Either the 100% RNS write-off was grossly misleading or the “up to £10m” is.
3/ Only when there are “distributable reserves” are RBG be legally able to pay a dividend under the Companies Act.
4/ Having known her years ago my view remains that Nicola Foulston has the both resources and determination to return. In 10 months or much later, after the poor FY 23 results anyway.

[quepassa] 28/7/2023 06:44

elsa,

you have been wrong time and time again on this.
you are in no position whatsoever to pontificate on what's going to happen.

you've called it wrong. you have at least admitted that "It's cost me a huge amount of money".

You clearly do not comprehend the situation or the sector.

"dull business" - if you had studied the listed legal services sector in any way, you would know that this sector has been anything other than dull...

Tumultuous perhaps but not dull.

I have said it before and I will say it again. The legal services sector is not one which is, in my opinion, well suited to a publicly listed shareholder structure.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[paleje] 27/7/2023 23:53

Simon Thompson has published his view, I don’t know what time but it’s on his link now, if anyone’s already posted it sorry:-

…The same cannot be said for RBG (RBGP: 18p), a professional services group that encompasses London’s mid-tier law firms Rosenblatt and Memery Crystal and corporate finance boutique Convex Capital. It has exited all its litigation finance matters, which has come at a cost.

In a pre-close trading update, the group has written down the value of all the remaining conditional fee arrangements (CFA) and damaged-based arrangements (DBA) to zero including the four remaining fully funded LionFish investments (‘Why is RBG one of the lowest rated stocks in London’, 12 July 2023). The total non-cash cash write-off of £13.3mn (14p) includes a £9.3mn investment in a single case that the board now believe will not be successful. Any successful outcome of the other cases will be reported as revenue in the future. The impairment equates to 21 per cent of the group’s last reported net asset value of £61.4mn (64.5p).



Earnings downgrade undermines confidence
It’s not the only news to spook investors. The board has decided to suspend the dividend to accelerate a debt reduction programme and is now guiding shareholders to expect full-year cash profit of £10-12mn rather than the £14.9mn forecast by house broker Singer Capital Markets.

That’s partly because, although the corporate finance boutique, Convex Capital, has a strong pipeline of 18 deals, transactions are taking longer to complete. Singer now expects Convex to deliver £4.5mn of annual revenue, down from £7mn previously forecast and £5.4mn in 2022. The broker also reined in its full-year revenue estimate from £45mn to £40mn for the legal services division. On this basis, Singer now expects both full-year pre-tax profit and EPS to halve to £5.9mn and 4.5p.



Net debt forecasts adjusted
The broker also expects a small rise in year-end net debt from £19.2mn to £20mn, rather than a previously forecast reduction to £15.5mn. This implies a leverage ratio of 2.7 times cash profit (pre-IFRs 16), above the 2.25 times loan covenant.

However, the directors are in talks with the lender and are confident of obtaining a waiver if this scenario plays out. Singer’s cash profit forecast is at the bottom of management’s new range, so if RBG delivers cash profit at the top of the range then the leverage ratio would still be within the loan covenant.

RBG's share price declined 29 per cent following the trading update and the company is now being valued on a current year PE ratio of four, and a miserly three times forecast cash profit to enterprise valuation – 70 per cent rating discounts to peers. I would not sell out at this bombed-out level. Hold.

[lennonsalive] 27/7/2023 21:43

What a bloody disaster this is. I did say about tin hats and all

[master rsi] 27/7/2023 16:39

Still waiting for the real reason you are here

I bought my first lot today not long ago.

PS. The only sorry is your innuendo
warning, this person may talk sheep at any given moment

[shep22] 27/7/2023 16:20

I feel very sorry for those investors who have lost money on this share, often buying on baseless "Buy" recommendations and lack of accurate information from the company. The current board is simply not up to the job, the directors do not understand how to run a law firm and the complexities involved, in what is a rapidly changing market place.

[master rsi] 27/7/2023 16:15

shep22

Maybe you should tell us the previous nickname as you were only 2 days old at ADVFN when posted below....
and maybe if you are an insider or working for another legal firm
and also if you are short

shep22
Member since: 23 Jun 2023

shep22 - 25 Jun 2023 - 23:10:34 - 1072 of 1321 Rosenblatt Group Plc - RBGP
The share price will speak for itself, when the share was 76p I forecast 30p, now I say this is not the bottom.

[riverman77] 27/7/2023 15:59

Ywa agree on Simon Thompson, he only ever lists the bull points, but never any bear points for balance - and every share will have at least some bear points. He feels like a pushy broker trying to sell you something that you don't want.

[clive7878] 27/7/2023 15:54

I have been taking quick an interest in the Smaller Shares section in the I.C. of late, and many of the tips have not materialised in the share price going up.
I feel on reading the above tips that not the whole story in the articles is being told. They mainly tell the reasons for why it is a stock is a buy, but lack to put in the negatives. One has to do one's own research on top. I did my research - and spent a lot of time of late watching things unfold and was seriously thinking of investing.
Are there "black clouds" on the horizon ? The share price was 140p now it is 26p why was this? Maybe Simon Thompson is in the wrong job. One has to write the positives and negatives about any stock.

Companies with a lot of debt can be a big worry. They say if you owe the bank £50,000 it is your worry. If you owed the bank £19 million it is the banks worry.
And directors and shareholders worry.

It is the same as ""Buyer beware" but in this case "Investor beware"
RBGP is one of the worse tips at 26.5p now 17.5p. RBGP share price has now - one would think - have finally bottomed out, but it is going to take a lot of confidence and time before the stock does recover. I wish the CEO all the best in turning the company around. One would also think that most of the bad news is out of the way.

[weaverbeever] 27/7/2023 15:20

Ooof. 31% drop. Share trading is brutal. Good job Simon Thompson is there to tip shares for us. What a great guy.

[shep22] 27/7/2023 14:52

Recovery is not an option as credibility has been lost. Morale is low among staff, both law firms have entered into a series of DBA's which are risky at the best of times and judgment calls have not been good up to now. Many clients have left as a result of the turmoil, large gaps to be filled. Yesterday's ruling by the Supreme Court rendered many LFA's unenforceable. Significant dependency on litigation funders.

[clocktower] 27/7/2023 14:30

Seems to have settled now but guessing the future after a drubbing like it has taken today is hard to call imo.

Still a quick turn for some. Good luck to holders.

[adeg] 27/7/2023 13:08

Shep22, why is recovery not an option. EBITDA is £10-£12 million per year, debt is only circa £20 million. No tax bill this year, no dividend and with an additional potential to be paid off quicker by some of the outstanding cases.

There is a good business hidden behind all of the mistakes made over the last two years. Why does it need rescuing and why would the bank force a fire sale?

[smidge21] 27/7/2023 12:34

Read yesterday's posts

[farrugia] 27/7/2023 12:25

who is this Paul Tomlinson who offloaded 9% just before this profits warning - can't be a coincidence!!??

[quepassa] 27/7/2023 12:04

there are some other options as well.


all imo. dyor.
qp

[shep22] 27/7/2023 11:57

You are mistaken, this is not a recovery stock, the options are takeover (rescue) merger or fire sale of assets.