Renold Share Discussion Threads

[gbb483] 25/1/2012 14:30

No, the cracking rise was two weeks ago, this is just the icing. It may be the limit for awhile yet.

[mesquida] 25/1/2012 13:43

What I would like to see alongside a reassuring trading statement is the resignation of the Chairman and a replacement who does not hail from the hedge fund community. Then I think that we would begin to see the share-price making up lost ground fairly quickly.

[nurdin] 25/1/2012 13:18

A cracking rise today..chart on a breakout now

[limit up] 17/1/2012 16:51

large seller cleared out..

[tom111] 17/1/2012 16:47

massive volume whats that all about

[lomcovaks] 17/1/2012 16:13

Was that a tree shake last week to force out weak holders? What's the reason for the near 20% rise today? Beats me.

[aleks_atanasov] 17/1/2012 15:27

nice quick buying today

[saltaire111] 16/1/2012 20:39

Creditchecker, pension liabilities are a very long term gig. It is accepted that longevity is a "risk" but the government's imposition of excessive prudence is designed for one thing only: to ensure that the chances of them picking up the tab via their pension tax fund (called the PPF) are as likely as me winning the lottery (and I don't buy a ticket!).

Longevity works two ways too. Again, it is accepted that over the course of the last couple of decades, we are living longer. But it could be that an awful pandemic hits (bird flu etc.) and this sort of event could have the opposite effect on longevity. It is just like any other aspect of pension planning - guesswork!


Salty

[lomcovaks] 15/1/2012 22:52

Something's up here. I bought Fenner and, shortly after, Renold for the same reasoning regarding their positioning in their respective markets and similar quality engineering products.

Fenner recently became my first ever ten bagger and Renold? I'm currently about 30% down.

Could see no logical reason for the near 10% drop on Friday.

[owenski] 15/1/2012 09:27

The M'cap relative to debt is immaterial, that's just the value that the market places on the company (often for good reason though)

The debt is immaterial to some extent, the issue is the ability to service debt.

The profits here - relative to debt are more worrying, also the fact that - although working capital related - the debt has gone up again concerns me.

This isn't looking cheap to me.

[nurdin] 15/1/2012 08:50

It is curious that Hanover got rid of their entire stake just when years of restructuring and effective management controls were starting to bear fruit.Did they see something in the balance sheet they didnt like? Or was it just the state of the global economy that scared them off?We will never know but I must admit the increasing debt and the pension deficit do ring warning bells against the backdrop of looming global recession...

[saltaire111] 14/1/2012 20:07

In many respects the pension deficit is an imaginary debt. The government's imposition of ridiculously over cautious technical provisions results in schemes posting inflated theoretical deficits - they (the govt.) are determined to do everything possible to prevent schemes falling into the PPF and as a result assumptions on discount rates, longevity and inflation are excessively cautious in my view. Also, if bond yields quickly return to normal, a significant proportion of the theoretical deficit will simply vanish. So I think the pension deficit is over done. I'm buying more shares at this level.

Salty

[mog] 13/1/2012 21:49

The main thing that baffles me is the executive director buying in the past 6 months:
10/06/2011 BUY Tenner, Brian FD 75,000 37.90 p
21/06/2011 BUY Davies, Robert CEO 202,127 36.20 p
21/06/2011 BUY Tenner, Brian FD 40,831 36.20 p
23/11/2011 BUY Tenner, Brian FD 75,000 26.10 p

I always put a lot of credibility on buys by a FD, has he really got it so wrong? He should know something about debt and pension.

Also broker forecasts show plenty of earnings for paying off debt:
31/03/12 4.5p, p/e 6, 5 brokers
31/03/13 6.3p, p/e 3.8, 5 brokers, 1 upgrade in past week
31/03/14 7.1p, p/e 3.4, 4 brokers

Maybe we'll see a MBO at a ridiculously low price.

[saltaire111] 13/1/2012 19:47

How much lower can this sink before someone bids?

Salty

[afpk53] 06/1/2012 16:49

Thanks for the interesting link. He certainly puts the case well.

[gleach23] 23/12/2011 15:09

envirovision, i think it's a wide berth rather than birth? can't have such visions clouding one's judgement :-O

[contrarian2investor] 23/12/2011 14:50

Hi envirovision, I had a tight stop-loss which got triggered. So it will third time the charm for me at some point in 2012.
What have you been buying recently?

[envirovision] 20/12/2011 15:46

Just seen your post c2i. Personally I am giving this a wide birth after seeing the director offloading in November. I think I would prefer to wait until A) The company updates the market and B) There is more visibility regards Europe.