Regional Reit Share Discussion Threads

[feuille] 01/5/2024 09:20

22 May Trading Update and Outlook Announcement

[williamcooper104] 01/5/2024 08:19

There's probably a 30 day grace period on the bond maturity But still.....

[williamcooper104] 01/5/2024 08:18

Yep with just three months left you'd expect them to say that they are either going to do a rights issue or raise debt and if latter that they were in discussions with lenders

[rcturner2] 01/5/2024 08:18

The bond is priced at 94p, same as it has been for the last month.

[nickrl] 01/5/2024 08:13

@Specto if Inglis thinks putting out a good news story which is no more than a bau update is going to take the spotlight off the burning platform of the bond.

96 days and falling.

[spectoacc] 01/5/2024 07:13

One day RGL will shock me with a "Negative voids update".

All well & good, today's news, but isn't what the shares are trading on/what shareholders want to hear.

[rcturner2] 28/4/2024 19:34

The share price is a total guess at the moment as it will depend on the outcome of the refinancing of the retail bond that falls due in August.

[121spa] 28/4/2024 09:59

Good point. So what's your view on the share price at this level?

[sleepy] 25/4/2024 17:01

Thanks William

[williamcooper104] 25/4/2024 14:18

External manager of DGI9 (and SOHO though they've not really screwed that one up)

[sleepy] 25/4/2024 13:59

Who are Triple Point please?

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2024 21:14

He certainly is Can he be worse than Tripple Point is the question

[nickrl] 24/4/2024 21:03

@WC Inglis is certainly competing for that accolade

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2024 20:34

The retail bond probably won't default But given that it's maturity is only three months away it's not a remote risk It wouldn't be the first REIT to default on a recourse debt and it wouldn't be the first management of an investment trust to do something really stupid

[grahamg8] 24/4/2024 19:56

I'm not convinced new equity is needed in the short term. However senior debt needs to be dealt with in 2.5 years time, that could be a different story. But August this year is where the focus needs to be. If the current disposals come through at reasonably near book value, and as RCT says roughly half goes to reduce debt and half to cash. Debt/Equity and LTV stay under control. Use what surplus there is to reduce the outstanding bonds and refinance the rest at a higher coupon. The premium will depend on how well the disposal program is going. So it is in RGL's hands.

In comparison ENQ went through a similar trauma. 5.5% bonds 15/2/22 were first extended to 15/10/23 at 7.0% and then rolled into new bonds at 9% ending on 27/10/27. Their huge debt pile has been substantially reduced and it looks as if there should be no problem redeeming the current bonds on time and in full.

It can be done.

[rcturner2] 24/4/2024 19:18

There is a lot of rubbish on this thread.

Firstly, the retail bond will not default it's just a question of how they work the balance of repayment, roll over and new equity. If the retail bond defaults the company is wound up and that isn't happening.

Generally speaking if they sell properties the true available cash is about the half sale price, so £30m of sales will mean £15m available to pay off the bond. This is a function of the LTV etc.

The bond is at 94p and that price is simply a function of supply and demand and the return that anyone would expect for holding the bond. If the price got anywhere near par holders would be selling simply to reinvest elsewhere.

[spectoacc] 24/4/2024 15:11

@Wc104 #4265 - or not gloomy enough ;)

[dandigirl] 24/4/2024 12:27

agree with low teen type returns - have seen a bridge at 12% recently, plus fees/costs - but it should be temporary pending sales receipts.

there are providers of such funding

looks like all should be revealed on 22 May 2024 with the Trading Update and Outlook Announcement.

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2024 12:17

Plus what they will really want to do is to lend a junior loan that prepays some of the secured debt such that the LTV on the new junior loan is lower They of course will still be looking for low teen type returns

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2024 12:15

The problem with refinancing is that any new lender is going to want to be comfortable that senior lenders can't shut of the cashflows coming out of their secured pools - so you're right they will need either cash or additional junior debt capacity to be able to cure covenants

[williamcooper104] 24/4/2024 12:13

The unrestricted cash should be capable of being used, proceeds from sales bit more complicated will depend on the loan docs and LTVs, but most likely that a large amount of it, if not all, goes to repay secured I've not looked closely at the balance sheet/accounts recently so could well be being a little over gloomy

[arbus5000] 24/4/2024 12:04

i suppose if the thing goes into administration, it wouldn't be all bad. There's no shortage of 'expert' opinion here, perhaps some of the contributors could take it over!

[cc2014] 24/4/2024 11:30

Nope. If they took the £20m unrestricted cash and spent it repaying the retail bond it screws up the LTV/debt covenants on the secured debt putting them into or close to default (you will have to run the numbers to get a view on exactly how marginal this is)


(and that's if the £20m actually exists for more than a few days at reporting periods and/or some working capital is required for uprating and maintaining the estate)

[dandigirl] 24/4/2024 11:17

Aren't we being a bit doomy and gloomy here.

Unrestricted cash at year end about £20m.
£13m of sales since year end and aiming to sell 58 assets totalling £130m [giving who knows what after debt repayments].

Surely at least 50% of the bond could be repaid with the rest rolled over into a new bond or bridged with a provider made comfortable with imminent sales prospects.