Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[lammylover] 05/6/2024 14:11

Simon Thompson in Investors Chronicle has just covered RFX in his on line column. Rates a Buy at 195p and states that Ramsdens has a..

Unwarranted low rating
Even though there is a good chance that Ramsdens will outperform full-year earnings forecasts, its shares only trade on a forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 8.1 and offer a healthy prospective dividend yield of 5.6 per cent. Moreover, the balance sheet is heavily asset-backed, so a price/book value ratio of 1.17 times seems overly harsh for a business that is delivering a respectable post-tax return on equity of more than 15 per cent. Buy.

[yump] 05/6/2024 13:28

Thank you for posting a corrective fact - I wish people would research properly. Then they might get a realistic set of risks.

[hpcg] 05/6/2024 12:33

It is online, I have a Ramsden's multi-currency card. It does have an edge, big players want to keep their excessive FX charges because lots of people are lazy enough to just pay. I've used it for Bhat, Euros and Dollars in the last 7 months and one can keep funds in those or any currencies, or go direct between non-sterling pairs. The best thing is it can be funded with sterling in real time, theoretically minutes before purchase even. They have actually had a lot more FX transactions from me than if I was getting cash converted.

[riverman77] 05/6/2024 11:05

Well that's the problem if it all moves to digital/online then can't see how RFX have any edge, especially agaisnt the big players.

[deanowls] 05/6/2024 10:56

It doesn’t have to be physical cash though, you can do it from your bank account if it’s a better rate than banks etc.

[riverman77] 05/6/2024 09:43

Looks fine, but still concerned about long term prospects for the FX side - can't believe people will still be exchanging physical cash in a few years time (at least in the current volumes).

[pugugly] 05/6/2024 09:38

Agreed results good but looks as though possibly not as good as expected as opened a few ticks down.

[lammylover] 05/6/2024 07:39

Operational Highlights

· Five new stores opened in the Period in Poole, Romford, Burnley, Blackburn and Cardiff.

· In addition, the Group acquired a franchised store in Bury in March 2024.

· The total store estate at the Period end comprised 167 stores, including one franchised store (HY23: 160 stores including two franchised stores).

Current trading and outlook

· H2 FY24 trading to date is in line with the Board's expectations, with continued positive performances across the Group's diversified income streams.

· A new store opened in Telford in May with three additional new stores expected to open in the remaining months of FY24.

· A dedicated pawnbroking website will launch in Summer 2024, followed by a dedicated gold buying website. Both websites will strengthen the Group's e-commerce proposition by creating a more seamless online customer experience.

[lammylover] 05/6/2024 07:37

Interims Out and results look good:
Financial Highlights

· Continued growth across all key income streams resulted in Profit Before Tax increasing by 8% to £4.0m (HY23: £3.7m).

· Gross revenue increased by 12% to £43.8m (HY23: £39.0m).

· Jewellery retail revenue increased by 1% to £17.5m (HY23: £17.3m) with retail gross profit increasing by 6% to £6.7m (HY23: £6.3m) due to product mix benefits.

· Pawnbroking loan book at the Period end increased by 12% to £10.8m (HY23: £9.7m).

· Foreign currency gross profit increased by 3% to £5.0m (HY23: £4.9m).

· Gross profit from the purchase of precious metals increased by 25% to £5.0m (HY23: £4.0m).

· Net Assets increased by £4.8m to £47.8m (HY23: £43.0m).

· The Board has approved a 9% increase in the interim dividend to 3.6 pence per share (HY23: 3.3 pence per share) reflecting the Group's positive trading momentum and the Board's confidence in the outlook.

[lammylover] 27/5/2024 20:19

The only risks I see are:
- Higher wage bill (which Board referenced in previous update)
- Slowing sales of high end jewellery particularly watches (seen at Watches of Switzerland)
- More foreign travel, but customers taking less FX cash.

Positives for me (and I've got a decent sized holding):
- Well run business and good Board who make decisions in growing the business in a steady and profitable way to the benefit of all (including shareholders with decent dividend) Low risk, cash rich.
- As growing business, moving into new territories (S/East) where loans should be bigger. Also have taken opportunities to move existing shops into better locations when leases come up for renewal.
- High gold price, due to global tensions (Ukraine, Gaza) = Massive positive here!
- Cost of living crisis, where lots of people need short term loans.
- Lower cost jewellery popular

Lastly, business has had best year but share price at 200p, is 30% below year high price (due to Institutional Investors reducing holding - perhaps because they have returned private investors cash - who have jumped into US tech stock / AI bandwagon....which is probably a bubble) I expect investors to return into AIM soon, as we have seen on FTSE350 last month.

Personally I believe this is a rock solid investment at this level and broker target 290p is easily achievable later this year.

[sheffieldowls] 27/5/2024 14:12

There is still a large institutional seller around as I was able to purchase a significant number of shares last week at a little over two pounds a share. The question in my mind is why is an institution wanting to offload a large number of Ramsdens shares at probably just under two pounds a share when its likely that 2024 will be a year of record profits for Ramsdens.

[cravencottage] 16/5/2024 17:30

If the seller's gone RFX should start to gain traction..

Gold visiting new highs and Simon from the I/C is bound to add his tw0 penneth.

[gleach23] 15/5/2024 12:59

My feelings too riverman77 - I topped up yesterday on the same basis

[riverman77] 15/5/2024 12:48

Hugely lagged pretty much everything else in my portfolio during the recent rally - even HAT showing signs of life. Every indication that the company is trading well, so weakness must be due to selling pressure from these funds. Very tempted to top up as looks far too cheap.

[sheffieldowls] 14/5/2024 23:54

hpcg

Thank you for posting details of the disclosure rules for shareholders with more than 3% of the shares in a company.

[sheffieldowls] 14/5/2024 22:11

Thank you solarno lopez for this information which I was not aware of and it seems to me that Otus Capital Management did not do this as the first we heard about their selling was when they completed a TR1 in which they notified the market of a reduction in their shareholding from 9.61% to 4.95%.

[solarno lopez] 14/5/2024 21:55

The only time you need to disclose and the onus is on the shareholder is when the shareholder goes through a % point.
At 3% you can acquire shares up to 3.9999% without declaring the purchases. Once over 4% the shareholder must submit a TR1
And of course the same applies when selling .

[hpcg] 14/5/2024 21:16

The disclosure rules are set by the FCA

[sheffieldowls] 14/5/2024 15:19

I asked if you would contact Peter Kenyon because I have spoken to him numerous times in the last year or so and as you said he comes back quickly with a response to any questions. I would be interested to know what the reporting requirements are for any changes in a notifiable shareholding ie over 3% because it seems strange that Otus Capital did not report a gradual reduction of their shareholding in Ramsdens holdings.

[lammylover] 14/5/2024 14:39

Thanks Sheffield Owls,

I've contacted Peter a few times and he always comes back quickly and with good feedback. Recently I contacted him about the Downing Fund apparent anomaly, where they were planning on winding up the Micro Cap Fund (including selling RFX shares) and returning funds to Investors; yet on the other hand opening up a new Fund, focused on IHT preservation, which perversely included buying RFX shares! Peter's thoughts at the times was that I should take this up with Downing.
I suspect that he wouldn't want to offend any Fund investing in RFX and would say that it would be best to contact Otus in this circumstance.

Having crunched the numbers, it appears that Otus big reduction this time is around 1.5m shares sold, and there have been some big trades over the last week. There may have been other players at work over the last few months when the share price has stagnated around 190p and price doesn't rise, however many private buyers such as yourself(and me)add to their portfolios.

We can only hope eventually, these sellers finish and move on elsewhere and also that private investors return, as they see the UK share market moving upwards as the macro situation improves.

[sheffieldowls] 14/5/2024 14:09

Lammylover

You make a very valid point in my opinion why don't you take this matter up with Peter Kenyon the chief executive of Ramsdens. I feel sure that all on this board would be interested in knowing more about reporting to the market any changes in their shareholding in a company when their holding is over 3%.

[lammylover] 14/5/2024 13:43

Well there we go - OTUS reduce from 9.61% to 4.95%. Good news in a way, as at least the large seller has finally declared their new, lower holding and share price should recover to over £2.00, IMO.

However, surely there is an acceptable (legal?) timeline for reporting to the market? Most Funds who reduce, show a gradual reduction and a number of Holding RNS's declaring their gradual change in position.

I can't believe that one massive step down in holdings as OPUS have declared for 13/5/24; which have clearly happened over months and declared as one change in position is acceptable notification?

[gleach23] 14/5/2024 12:59

Hi hpcg....I'm referring to DSM's RNSs of their own portfolio breakdown. I've realised it wasn't a full percentage reduction but went from 2.17% of their portfolio at the end of March to 1.45% per the link below

[hpcg] 14/5/2024 12:51

No RNS required for holdings under 3%.