Red Squared Share Discussion Threads

[sharegod] 03/11/2006 16:10

The problem I have with these is that they seem to be a one product pony and very risky in any general economic downturn.

[purple] 03/11/2006 15:23

Well if you go way back it was floated at 48p on Ofex in 2000. The shares came to AIM at 18p and a discounted placing was done at 10p. These figures are not relivant now as its not the same market place. If valued on a forward PE and taking into account the cash 12p-14p may be a fair valuation. However, growth prospects and the RedAlert software product could lead to a higher valuation if the company could provide evdience of market uptake and growth prospects. Anyway going to pipe down untill after the results, where we will be in much better positions to make a judgement of current valuation and future prospects.

Have a good weekend:)


"Red Squared plc, the Application Service Provider, announces that dealings in
its shares will commence on Wednesday 29 November 2000. The company has issued
5,000,000 shares at 48p per Ordinary share. There are now 20,151,400 shares in
issue, giving a market capitalisation of GBP9.67 million.

The Offer for Subscription, which was nearly 5 times over-subscribed in the
retail part of the offer, closed on 20 November 2000, received GBP2,400,000 and
share certificates were posted to subscribers on 24 November 2000."

[aleman] 03/11/2006 14:52

Taken over? If the company floated at 18p, and is now proving itself a success, wouldn't a takeover have to be well above 18p to be considered? I can see how the lumpy contracts would fit into a bigger company better, though. Given I think fair value is more like 9 or 10p, I agree that another good contract could see these double.

[purple] 03/11/2006 14:48

Yump, I am taking a 3-5 year view with the expectation that the company will be taken over within this time frame. Although agree it could quite easily double before christmas.

[yump] 03/11/2006 14:38

I've put a small toe in - like the way it doesn't take much increase in t/o to move them into profit judging by the recent statement. Not a big investment cos don't want to tie up much cash if it takes a year or so to really move. If it does really move then will feel more secure to top up having a small early stake.

[purple] 03/11/2006 14:34

looks like a lot of buys going through and only a single sell order. Who knows may even get another buy tip, after the results. It was in IC as a buy at the start of the year so guess they will give an update after the results.

[purple] 03/11/2006 10:53

SHAREGOD, if the shares double they will still be below the price they came to AIM (18p) and around the level money was raised at a couple of years ago (10p).

[purple] 03/11/2006 10:10

I think the liquidity has improved over the past few months and as the company is unnoticed at the moment may be a good time to get involved.

Done a little more research about the mid market network monitoring software market and it does look very attractive. RedAlert provides the company with high margin reoccurring revenue, so is very complementary to the managed service division. Not sure on the short term sales of RedAlert, but the long term potential is evident. Anyway we should see more clarity in the results and possibly more contracts.


"Mid market underserved
Historically, the market for systems management software has been focused on larger systems (mainframe, minicomputer and large Unix servers) with Hewlett-Packard, Computer Associates, IBM/Tivoli and BMC among the main suppliers. These have been delivered as either all-encompassing suites or point products.
This large system orientation has been reflected in the cost – typically £100k per licence – and the level of complexity of the products. As a result, market penetration among mid market companies (50 to 1,000 staff) running Windows, Unix and Linux servers has been lower.

There are some mid market-oriented systems management suites (from vendors such as LANDesk, Symantec, Microsoft and Network Associates) and the larger systems management vendors have made numerous attempts to address the mid market. Most companies have chosen to rely on manual processes and point products, however, to ensure the performance and availability of their IT systems, and larger systems management companies have been unable to address the mid market cost-effectively. As IT has become more important to mid market companies and their networks more complex, their current approach is increasingly inadequate.

As a result, management software for mid market systems is scheduled to grow faster (c. 8-10% pa for the next four years) than for larger companies (c. 5-7%) as penetration levels increase. The overall size of the mid market is expected to exceed the larger company market ($12.1bn) by around 2006 (Source: IDC)."

[aleman] 03/11/2006 00:22

There are no guarantees, but previous experience says you might get 5k at 6.0, 20k at 6.5 and 50k at 7.0, or something like that.

[sharegod] 02/11/2006 21:05

purple.what price can you buy at ? thinking of getting in as this could double in 6mths.imo.

[purple] 02/11/2006 15:53

"We have a strong pipeline of potential new business and we look forward to announcing our full year results."

:)

[aleman] 02/11/2006 14:36

Results were end of January last year, which is rather slow. They'll probably be a bit earlier this year as there is good news, but I still think it is more likely that the next news will be of more contracts.

[purple] 02/11/2006 12:25

Guess its not to long before the results now, year end was 31 September.

Will be interested in the forward looking statment and to find out how sales of RedAlert are going. It would also be nice to see the company update its web site etc. and increase its profile further.

[aleman] 27/10/2006 13:36

Isn't it, just? Likely to meet forecasts of £2.5m turnover after £800k H1 means £1.7m in H2. Profitable in H2 as well, so next year looks like £3 to £3.5m turnover and profitable, but the company is worth £750k after knocking £750k cash off. It makes you wonder who is selling. I have quite a few now but they still tempt. HHhhmmm...

[mjcrockett] 27/10/2006 12:23

You can now buy at 5.90p. Very tempting to add more at this price.

MJ

[aleman] 26/10/2006 16:22

Offer dropped a touch - only a penny spread now! Anyone wanting to buy a few can get them cheaper than my average, although probably only for a small amount. Can't believe we're so low now the company is profitable with 3p a share cash.

[purple] 23/10/2006 09:59

still small trades ticking through, volume is better than the old days. Type of stock that could easily double when it gets noticed.

[purple] 22/10/2006 15:58

Year end is 31 September 2006, so guess they might be out towards the end of November or December but that is just me guessing.

[aleman] 22/10/2006 14:25

I like an optimist. Could be a bit more next week, but I would not be surpised if they go back to sleep until January's results, or are we expecting them earlier this year since they will be better?

[purple] 22/10/2006 10:43

Volume better and much improved spread now, all trades done within the spread.
Would not be suerprised to see it tick up much higher next week and in the build up to the results.

[aleman] 20/10/2006 16:03

Well , things looks a little better if you only want £300 worth. Spread now more like a normal tiddler but you will have to pay a little outside it to get more than £1k or so. Still, its nice to see a bit of trading with out any news. That doesn't happen often enough.

[purple] 20/10/2006 15:32

market makers bring in the spread, just hope this continues.

[purple] 20/10/2006 14:23

another tick up this afternoon

[purple] 20/10/2006 11:06

The note from hoodlessbrennan is very out of date, but still interesting.

There are currently two broker buy rating out, with a much higher valuation than current market price.

I think all the sellers have been flushed out at current levels, possible tree shaking by the market makers. I would guess now that any buying would pus the price up and hopefully reduce the spread!