Reckitt Benckiser Share Discussion Threads

[pkvidean] 12/7/2002 00:56

Obvious dangers of a 5-10% capitulation in US this aft! Hope not, but guess which stock looks the pick of the shorts @ current level of 1159p. If I get a whiff of US failing to rally then I shall certainly double up and thereafter we could still get our 1020p by close of play today!

[pkvidean] 11/7/2002 20:59

Closed short for small profit. Too much value in Longs now to waste my time struggling against the mighty RB. In any case, if the market rallies from tomorrow, still think this one could reach 1350p and possibly test 1400p. Will still favour a short, however, on any out of context rise if the market continues to grizzle and the need for protection arises!

[pkvidean] 09/7/2002 11:35

Give it a rest guys! Consumer spending and all that! 950p is current fair value for RB. but how can one double up in the face of such incredibly stubborn resistance ?

[pkvidean] 28/6/2002 07:37

Colgate/Palmolive recovered another 3.5% yesterday. Looks like I should have held out for the 1166p (which we should see today) before re-shorting the RB. phenonemum. Silly me - must do better!

[pkvidean] 27/6/2002 10:41

Colgate Reconfirms 2002 2nd Quarter and Year

New York, New York, June 26, 2002.... Responding to market conditions,
Colgate-Palmolive Company (NYSE: CL) again reiterated confidence in external
estimates for both 2nd Quarter and Full Year 2002 earnings per share. Reuben
Mark, Chairman and CEO said, "We expect a solid quarter with good unit volume
growth with every operating division increasing, the largest worldwide dollar
sales growth in over four years, excellent gross margin improvement and
double-digit earnings per share growth. In addition, despite local economic
conditions, Latin American volume and EBIT performance should be better than
previously anticipated."

[pkvidean] 25/6/2002 21:50

Agreed Fairley,

I missed yesterday's 1147p (which I certainly would have shorted from) due to my spread betting firm's online system being unusable due to problems with re-aligning the markets following the FTSE re-shuffles. One of my other main fancies at the time (SHP) has still mysteriouly disappeared from the list completely. Temporarily too late for RB. now after tonights heinous reversal in US. However, managed to go equal weight Long and Short today so shouldn't get too badly damaged tomorrow (profit warnings notwithstanding). For RB. methinks could see most of the ground to 1020p eaten up tomorrow.

[fairley] 25/6/2002 21:22

Looks like a classic H&S to me completed with a break of the neckline at 1150. Downside objective 1020. On a day when the market rallys 100 points a move up of .3% would seem to confirm weakness. Nothing is for certain but the odds are on the short side IMHO.

[pkvidean] 23/6/2002 15:19

benson,

6% was just my best guess (I do not use TA) but after Friday's unconvincing performance (only touched 1119p) - no doubt partially fuelled by the continued weakness of Colgate/Palmolive - I may be being unduly optimistic and may have already missed re-visiting the short boat with RB. If it clambers back up to 1130p tomorrow or Tuesday I will be tempted although most of the value is now shifting to laying foundations for Long positions and I may settle for maintaining my current balance of 60% Long and 40% short especially if there is early weakness tomorrow. Will be looking to go 70% and 30% when and if FTSE100 hits my initial target of 4366 (18% weak bear market is possibly still only 2/1 against). IMHO.

[benson] 23/6/2002 14:59

Missed off the following:
Money flow down sharply since start of May.
200 day moving avaerage around 1075: a move down below that would strengthen my short.

Does the chart all add up so simply?

[benson] 23/6/2002 14:54

pkvidean: Why a 6% bounce? (I see this is where it bounced up to in mid-June)

Looking at the charts, a small bouce off support certainly seems likely but now in a down-trend with OBV falling since end of February. If the market overall remains bearish I will short after the expected bounce occurs.

[pkvidean] 21/6/2002 10:33

Actually touched 1100p yesterday and removed my short @ 1105p. Looking for a 6% bounce now to circa 1166p and then an obvious prime short candidate on retail spending slowdown. IMHO.

[nlm1] 18/6/2002 17:47

still a screaming short.

[pkvidean] 01/6/2002 00:19

Not sure what to make of the strange transitory wobble down to 1152p at about 11:40!

I've removed both hedgery Longs and now hoping for some downside momentum following the rally to 1217p. Colgate/Palmolive has so far softened 15.2% which if replicated for RB. would take it down to 1102.75p in the first instance.

[pkvidean] 28/5/2002 14:38

nim1,

Confucius he say - one who relies on 30 day moving averages is prone to becoming a tad crispy duck!

[nlm1] 28/5/2002 12:31

pkvidean,

share price is falling well be the 30 day moving average, combined with a negative rsi. Upwards! you must be joking. Time to short.

[pkvidean] 27/5/2002 13:13

Come on RB. - you are not supposed to be collapsing in a heap just yet!

A nice 6% rally from Friday's 1161p to 1230.75p would be most acceptable now!

[pkvidean] 22/5/2002 21:49

Proceeding quite satisfactorily for my RB. short choice now. Still a little way to catch up (percentage wise) with Colgate/Palmolive's recent weakness but after 4 consecutively down intra-day trend prices (from 1226p) I think the next move is likely to be up so I went equal weight with a further Long @ 1184p today. The next target for me, therefore, is to release my first hedgery Long taken out @ 1225p. Ideally looking for about a 40p (deadish cat) bounce tomorrow which would do nicely. A smaller rise tomorrow would probably indicate a 2-3 day upward recovery to about 1245p whereupon I would even be able to cash my first Long at a profit.

Assuming we are in a 4 year cycle (and RB. has already peaked) then the 1998/1999 low price of 700p plus 5% for the good growth achieved would seem about right for a longer term downtrend target. That comes out @ 850.75p!

IMHO.

[pkvidean] 09/5/2002 00:26

Yesterday and today (so far) has seen some weakening in defensive stocks and a degree of interest in TMTs. Long may it continue but I suspect this is the first of a series of false dawns and the likes of RB. have further to rise (should the overall market hold up). Doubled my short @ 1300p last week and now looking at a much more manageable short average of 1203.5p. Hedged that with a 50% Long this morning @ 1225p (pity I didn't wait for 1204p) as I might as well take some profits whilst waiting for the defensive beastie to top out (currently anticipating about 1350p). IMHO.

[spyderman] 07/5/2002 08:42

no sign of the Q1 results on this site

[pkvidean] 03/5/2002 18:55

Thats the historic 1300p but probably quite a bit more to come as we have clearly now entered the initial stages of the defensive mini-bubble! IMHO.

[pkvidean] 27/4/2002 20:27

Just as well I didn't!

[pat o hat] 21/4/2002 12:36

Re Post 41 Patrick, maybe it is really is institutions secretly exiting VOD, etc, and have to find a home for their money -- distaste of techs being the driving force



REX is another I have been following. I thought of swapping out of SPT to buy it about 2 years ago but was laughed out of it by my Killik broker (not P. Kavanagh).

(condescending gasp) "...Rexam?"

So yes, RB. and the others due for a fall -- I wouldn't dare predict timing in detail. However I wd. suggest TMTs will not the be new big thing -- maybe oil and other resources, transport, healthcare, education (yes), even manufacturing -- not TMTs. They have to hit bottom and then stay there for at least a year, probably more. Think of the Conservative Party as an analogy for the necessary purgation and the time it is likely to take. Pat.