Real Estate Investors Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 14/5/2020 07:53

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[spectoacc] 13/5/2020 20:14

LAND's LTV has crept up to c.30% with the c.10% downward revaluation to NAV, but has SREI's NAV "had the treatment" yet? But after latest falls SREI is starting to look interesting. Trouble is, they all are :)

[hugepants] 13/5/2020 20:09

I held a lot of rle before covid but sold early due to the high ltv of 40%. So a bit surprised it rose back up to 44p. Also no industrial in the portfolio. And I'd still prefer SREI at current price to BLND or LAND. Discount to NAV approx the same but the SREI portfolio looks more diversified and has significantly lower LTV at only 21%.

[spectoacc] 13/5/2020 16:24

@nickrl - agreed, but - that was pre-market yesterday, today's moves should have been yesterday's. LAND/BLND are starting to look better value than the smaller REITs IMO, but everything has its price, and not convinced why eg RLE is worth 6.5% less today than it was after the LAND news yesterday.

Then again - don't have any of those mentioned above atm.

[belgraviaboy] 13/5/2020 16:14

Most of the others seem to be holding above their previous lows....

[nickrl] 13/5/2020 16:08

Specto for me LAND laid bare yesterday the scale of the challenges ahead with a clear and present warning that they expect June collection rates will be down on even the poor March rates and acknowledgement that the current business model is broken and there working on strategy to deal with it with three permutations to be revealed in due course

[spectoacc] 13/5/2020 15:27

Most of them taking a beating today, eg RGL/NRR/PCTN/BCPT etc. Not convinced it's on anything "new".

[belgraviaboy] 13/5/2020 14:46

Not looking too clever here...

[chucko1] 28/4/2020 12:08

Spangle, it looks a little like that.

[spectoacc] 28/4/2020 11:23

To an extent I'm sure, but if you compare (my) AIRE to RLE, RLE still done better.

[spangle93] 28/4/2020 11:17

... while it lasted. Not too bouncy at the moment, compared with AIRE or RGL

Is the REIT cash just circulating round? - sell after a rise, buy what hasn't, wait for the rise, rinse, repeat

[spectoacc] 14/4/2020 09:48

Only fair to note RLE's decent bounce.

[nickrl] 05/4/2020 12:08

These have £41m of there current 105m borrowings due in Feb 21 so look vulnerable to a rights issue in 4-6mths if there bankers aren't helpful.

[skyship] 04/4/2020 09:55

Comparison Update - EPIC a real dog; RGL a bit of a star performer - now 53% up on its low 2 weeks ago.


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[spectoacc] 02/4/2020 16:21

And in good news:

"Covid-19 has at least shut up the anti-vaxxers, who are now praying for a vaccine with the rest of us".

[spectoacc] 02/4/2020 06:55

@RCT2 -perhaps you should let Boris, and Trump, and Italy, France, Germany, India etc know, then maybe they wouldn't shut down their economies & we could all get back to normal.

"Something funny" is indeed occurring.

@chucko1 - a Cassandra maybe, but a realist not a doom merchant. 1940, not 2008. This won't go on for ever, but the longer it goes on the more different things will be the other side.

[rcturner2] 01/4/2020 21:00

Specto, so far the number of people who have died in the UK from COVID-19 who didn't have an underlying condition is 20. Since the total UK deaths is currently lower than 12 months ago (which you acknowledge) don't you think that something funny is occurring? COVID-19 is a notifiable disease so has to be listed on death certificates which is not the case with flu for example. The overwhelming number of people who are listed as having died from the virus would have died anyway, it is not leading to increased mortality.

[chucko1] 01/4/2020 20:37

Specto, why the prophet of doom? Fatalism on an industrial scale! You are going to ignite if you’re not careful.

[spectoacc] 01/4/2020 18:39

I watch the ONS stats, so yes. You do know that many, many more are going to die in this country of Covid-19? And that the only reason it's not many, many more is that we've basically stopped the economy, for an indeterminate time?

And that factories, machines, individuals, even the utilisation of ideas, rely on being able to get out of the house? As well as usually being backed by debt? An economy that isn't financialised uses those stone mill wheels as its currency.

Oops - RLE, umm.. Going down, if I had to guess :)

[rcturner2] 01/4/2020 17:36

The only thing that matters is the productive capacity of the world. Obsessing about debt and other financial instruments (which are just contracts between two parties that may or may not get paid) is IMHO a waste of time.

GDP is driven by factories, machines, individuals, ideas etc. All of these are for the most part completely untouched by the virus.

You do know that in the UK in Q1 2020 fewer people have actually died than in Q1 2019?

[spectoacc] 01/4/2020 14:22

@frazboy - I think many are thinking that the effect of an oil crash is inevitable higher prices down the line. Capacity taken out never to return, no investment, no new exploration etc. And BP/Shell the survivors.

The risk is - "It's different this time". The future has less oil demand than the past. Oil may go negative in this collapse (seriously). Futures calling for $42 oil by December this year are, in my view, way out - plenty of scenarios have us back in lockdown by then.

In the meantime, US shale, Russia, Saudis etc all have no choice but to keep pumping. Storage is rapidly heading to capacity. Other than China, tentatively, everyone's oil consumption is off an absolute cliff.

Lower for longer? Much longer, and then the survivors are Russia & the Saudis & the State-owned co's, and only then might you see the oil price spike back up.

Always worth thinking of the counter-factual, and the main one I can come up with is inflation (ignoring the Ruskies/Saudis making peace again, which they obviously will). If the value of money falls enough, oil can rise in $ even whilst falling in real terms.

Edit - apologies for OT, will make my next post RLE-relevant ;)

[frazboy] 01/4/2020 13:51

Off topic but that's an interesting comment about RDSB/BP. It seems to me that folk are buying them because they're expecting them to maintain their dividends whilst ignoring the damage they're doing to their balance sheets. Bizarre.

[spectoacc] 01/4/2020 12:39

@LopsidedGit1 - I'm only really trading by the day, I wouldn't be able to keep in shorts with the scale of the bear market rallies. If I had unlimited margin & nerve, I'd be short the likes of RTN, EZJ, WIZZ, BP, RDSA/B - and plenty more :) The oilers in particular are in for a pasting IMO.

[lopsidedgit1] 01/4/2020 12:07

Forthright and intelligent views spectacc
Respect.

What instrument are you using to bet against the market at the moment?
I'm using igindex. Betting against ftse with spreadbets and have a stop loss

[spectoacc] 01/4/2020 11:54

Well - there is indeed an argument for just getting the R number under 1, and for a little transmission to help us towards herd immunity.

Two huge problems.

1. Italy
2. 50m of us need to get it, 7.5m hospital admissions, a huge number of unnecessary deaths
3. A year? 18 months?

That's 3 I know :)