Real Estate Credit Inves... Share Discussion Threads

[cwa1] 28/4/2023 08:34

I'd like to think so-but my gut feeling is that the seller probably has still more to go. We'll see

[spoole5] 28/4/2023 08:26

Bottom in?

[cwa1] 27/4/2023 17:58

Well, with a dividend of 12p the sums aren't TOO difficult🙂

How safe? I used to think very safe given the senior investment profile. However I bet the Swiss holders of AT1 debt thought it was safe too and look at how that turned out.,.so I'll just leave you to make your own mind up on that one. Also somebody seems to be dead keen to get out and they may well know WAY more than me.

Other opinions on their "safeness" would be welcomed from anyone here

[boystown] 27/4/2023 17:10

What's the yield at 126p CWA1 and ($6 million question....) marks out of ten; how safe do you think it is? :-)

[cwa1] 27/4/2023 17:04

Got filled at 126p in the closing auction. Now, did I want them?! I wonder how much the seller has to go? It seems like a bottomless supply :-(

[cwa1] 26/4/2023 16:38

I've taken some more at a little under 129p. Quick, send in the men that have accommodation available in padded rooms...

[cwa1] 26/4/2023 08:34

I'm certainly hoping it is the latter of those two possibilities you suggest CC2014.

I picked up a few more in to the close yesterday. There certainly seems to be plenty of stock going at the moment-it would be interesting to know who it is and what their reason is-but I suppose we'll never find out the reason even though we should probably find out the seller eventually.

It's either a bargain(IMO) price currently if there's no lurking disaster, or one day us "normal" punters will be hit with some really bad news that explains it all. You pays your money...

[cc2014] 26/4/2023 08:25

500k of the 543k was some form of cross trade between the same party imho.

I saw 2 lots of 100k left on the ask at 129p last night.

We seem to now be following a pattern where whoever is selling spends most of the day trying to get the best price they can they accelerates the selling into the close and moving the price down to encourage buyers.

tbh the the share price looks decent enough value to me, although I'm not buying as I like to buy super cheap and in addition the FTSE is just unreasonably high imho.

I cannot work out whether there's some bad news on the way and the market knows way before us PI's or wehther it's just a seller that wants out.

[cwa1] 25/4/2023 16:37

543731 went through at 128.5p in the end with 100k still left on the ask at 129p

[cwa1] 25/4/2023 16:33

Big blocks on both sides of the book at the moment for the closing auction. In for a penny, in for a pound!

[mwj1959] 25/4/2023 11:17

Negative sentiment towards CRE undoubtedly not helping the stock and unfortunately that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Discount now back above 10%.

[cc2014] 24/4/2023 12:19

Share price starting to struggle at 130p

I see no particular reason for the weakness so assume someone has some knowledge that us PI's don't.

[williamcooper104] 22/4/2023 08:29

Realised credit loss write downs impair future dividend capacity Write downs from credit spread widening points to future increases divi capacity

[santos123] 22/4/2023 07:53

Hi, Cerrito.
Interesting post.

Hi, Manfrommoyse.
I have used primarybid in the past.
Some good outcomes, some not so good.
Tights issues, as you know every company asks their shareholders give away their statutory rights at the AGM vote.
I do not understand why any shareholder would give away a statutory right.
Seems to me incredible that a shareholder would do this.
But, they do.
You are correct about reaching par at expiry.

Hi, My Retirement Fund.
Of course I have heard of reinvesting the divi.
But in the case of R.E.C.I., I would not advise this investing style.
As the share price needs to be rising year on year, or at the very least to be stable.
The share price at R.E.C.I. is down over:-
1 year.
2 years.
5 years.
10 years
You can check this very easily on most investing sites.
That's why I say you must be careful, and not be afraid to trade this share.

Please do not get me wrong, I hold shares in R.E.C.I. so want the company to be well run, and profitable.
As do the majority of readers and contributors on this site.

[manfrommoyse] 19/4/2023 18:16

tights issues!

you know what I mean (funnier to leave than edit)

[manfrommoyse] 19/4/2023 18:15

@Santos123

David Stevenson (FT columnist and his adventurous investor blog) alerted to the unfairness of PIs not being able to take part in placings, which are now taking over from tights issues. He mentioned
hxxps://primarybid.com/uk
which is set up to allow PIs to take part via a set of brokers which includes - as you might expect - some of the better ones like AJ Bell and II. Not so-called Smart Investor, OBV

On the dividend and NAV discussion, the NAV was marked down for MTM movements right after the pandemic started in that 20-odd sigma event. They have not reported any delinquency in the portfolio but NAV has remained pretty flat to slightly up. It would be great to have some detail; too much to hope that these investments (bonds as I recall) are still on the books and may yet reach par at expiry? Anyone know more?

[spoole5] 16/4/2023 23:17

The increase in yields available from its senior loan origination, alongside the growth in the Company's ability to utilise efficient structured financing of its senior loan book, combine to support the aim: firstly, of ensuring that the dividend is entirely covered from income alone; and secondly, to present a pathway towards potential dividend increases in the futureFrom the November interim report.

[my retirement fund] 16/4/2023 22:34

*reinvesting!

[cerrito] 16/4/2023 22:33

I am not anticipating any increase in the dividend for the foreseeable future.
I note that with the present sharecount the dividend cash outflow is £13.7m per half year. I note that the operating profit for the half year to 9/22 was £12m approx and following the £1.8m hit to the portfolio (of course at Truss time) the net profit was £10.3 m.
It was true that in the half year to 9/21 the net profit was £ 14.2m ie the dividend was covered but that did include a portfolio reval of £4.4m.
I guess with higher interest rates and reversal of some of the Truss write downs the dividend may be covered in the 6 months to 3/23, despite the bond write downs reported in the recent fact sheet

[my retirement fund] 16/4/2023 22:33

Have you not heard about reinventing your dividends? It's a simple tick box option on many broker accounts. Since RECI paid every 3 months, it's quite a compounding multiplier, my friend.

[spoole5] 16/4/2023 21:37

If you can maintain your capital value and get 9% income pa you will be doing better than lots of equity funds.

[santos123] 16/4/2023 07:18

Hi, My Retirement Fund.

By the way, great name.

You have think of this share as fixed income share, as do not increase the dividend.

So if you get 9% divi fixed when you buy this share, it will decrease in value every year because of inflation, i.e. what you can actually buy.

As they always increase the share issue every time the N.A.V. goes positive.
This means, issuing new shares for the same returns is a guaranteed way to destroy share value and reduce demand for the company shares.

If the company allowed ordinary shareholders to buy the discounted share issue, this would not be a problem, But they are only offered to the biggest investors at the discounted price.

Hi Spoole5.
I wish they would increase the divi, but, I'm not holding my breath.

Stay Prosperous.
Santos123.

[my retirement fund] 15/4/2023 15:16

Whatever they choose to do, this is a rock solid income as it is!

[spoole5] 15/4/2023 12:46

They eluded to a dividend increase in the last report.

[santos123] 15/4/2023 07:53

Hi Spoole5.

I would be surprised if RECI increased the divi.

What usually happens is when the share price goes above the N.A.V., the company issues shares directly to its biggest investors, at a discount.
This dilutes the ordinary shares investors, thus causing the shares to go back below N.A.V.

This has happened many times in the past.

Be careful with this share, and don't be afraid to buy and sell.
I'm usually a buy and hold guy.

But, I make an exception with R.E.C.I.

Stay prosperous.
Santos123.