Ramsdens Share Discussion Threads

[riverman77] 28/11/2018 22:48

Yes that's what I had in mind - economic slowdown =fewer people going on holiday

[kazoom] 28/11/2018 22:26

Yump

I'm curious. In what way is FX cyclical ? Currency strength is, but the commission on changing from one to another isn't.

Demand is surely significantly cyclical?

Holidays / Short breaks are dependent on consumer spending power.
Those trips being take overseas is also dependent on currency strength.

[yump] 28/11/2018 21:08

I'm curious. In what way is FX cyclical ? Currency strength is, but the commission on changing from one to another isn't.

There have been competitors for ever, but the commission rates are not going to be driven down by any sizeable back street operations, so surely profits fundamentally depend on the cost of acquiring a customer, which if you've got any cross-selling possibilities may well be lower than for a pure FX operator.

Good luck anyway with whatever you choose.

[riverman77] 28/11/2018 17:30

Took the opportunity to get out after the ST spike. I didn't find his piece that compelling, but I guess he has to justify his long running tips. My main concern is the fx business which makes up 40% of profits - very low barriers to entry, loads of competitors and cyclical too. I think this is still a decent business and cheap but imo lots of better opportunities out there now after the recent sell off. Good luck to all holders.

[rcturner2] 28/11/2018 16:12

This is a buying market not a selling market.

[yump] 28/11/2018 15:31

Selling on a p/e of 10 with no actual or implied problems in a business does seem to fall into the category of money going from the impatient to the patient.

[pillion] 28/11/2018 13:53

Quite right too spob
Tommo must have a decent following

SP cranked up smartly after his comment

[spob] 28/11/2018 12:55

could have done without that tip for a few days :(

was waiting to buy more at a stupid cheap price

[igoe104] 28/11/2018 11:34

Its difficult to see a repeat of last summer, so you have to expect a improvement on FX figures next year. more shops opening, and xmas approaching so the shops could be in demand as folks that need cash. so the full year forecasts could well be beaten.

[carcosa] 28/11/2018 11:03

Associated presentation material can be found here:

[rawnsley] 28/11/2018 10:49

With no growth in FX due to the hot UK summer, I think these results are good. 122 or the 123 stores are profitable, which gives confidence to the highstreet concern. We are likely to get a boost next year with FX coming back online, albeit depending on the weather, so if things continue a 12-month hold should yield a very positive return, based on today's numbers and outlook.

Slightly disappointing to see online jewelry only providing 45k gross profit, which suggests £100k of sales. I had thought this as higher. It has to have a good couple of years of 100% growth YoY before this in any way affects the wider business.

[firtashia] 28/11/2018 10:16

Results underwhelming- sold half on the bell, holding the rest to see if this does well in the recession that will inevitably occur after Brexit, if the remoaners are to be believed.

[ab415385] 28/11/2018 10:01

hxxps://www.ramsdensplc.com/about-us - see here for a video from Peter Kenyon, CEO, talking about the Interim Results

[yump] 28/11/2018 09:47

I'd expect central support functions have been scaled up in one go to at least support the next 3 years+ of growth. That should be a one-off. The stores are generally profitable in their own right, so theoretically opening more stores just leads to increasing profits.

Online is increasing quite fast, but a small part and not likely to go ballistic, although they do say that 58% of purchases are not related to store catchment area. Perhaps that warrants some extra attention, as they are not having to order jewellery in and hope that it sells, which is what pure online would have to do. They've got access to a lot 'naturally' through all the stores. I wonder how they get their online visitors.

Seems like a steady as she goes investment, with the possibility of a modest profit surprise in the next few years.

[rcturner2] 28/11/2018 09:32

There is good growth in the jewelry business, they need to continue that growth and the shares will be rerated. At the moment it looks like they are spending money to stand still.

[yump] 28/11/2018 09:22

Difficult to know whether there are other one-off costs in there that won't repeat or won't repeat on the same scale.

I guess anyone that bought it as a growth stock will be disappointed, I am a little, but in the end I don't mind if it turns into a dividend stock with a chance of growth.

I suppose the time to sell was around 200p with the markets looking like they'd run out of steam, but the rating wasn't exactly racy.

[riverman77] 28/11/2018 08:45

Profits are heavily weighted to H1 so 13p sounds about right. However, I note the drop in fx income of 0.2m exactly matches the overall drop in group profit - therefore even if you strip out the impact of lower fx revenues, group profits are still only flat, so not exactly inspiring. New store costs were also cited as being a drag - but the company plans to roll-out new stores every year so this could be become a ongoing drag on profits rather than a one-off. I hold as it provides indirect exposure to gold and is undeniably cheap at 8-9 pe, but can't say I have a great deal of conviction.

[muzmanoz] 28/11/2018 08:27

Wasn't eps forecast to be 17p for the year and they've just done 13p for 6 months.

[yump] 28/11/2018 08:05

Quite happy sitting on a share that's growing revenue, when its just made quite a few investments for the future and is on a p/e of 10 with a good dividend, because presumably the idea is that profit will jump a bit at some point. If it was on a p/e of 20 it would be a different risk.

[podgyted] 28/11/2018 07:56

Liberum has reduced 2019 forecast so that PBT is the same as in 2018.

[rcturner2] 28/11/2018 07:46

I'm happy with those results. PE about 10 and dividend raised so the yield is about 4.5%.

[podgyted] 28/11/2018 07:44

Not what I was expecting. Profits on any measure are down and this was not implied in the 3/10/18 trading update. They have to move some to catch up this and more in the second half to meet forecast, and it's the quieter half.

[lammylover] 28/11/2018 07:29

Solid HY results, rev up 10% to £23.9m, profit down 3% to £5.0m. net cash £12.4m down £0.3m due to store openings, FX headwinds and payment of higher dividend interim 2.4p. No surprises here, however who knows how market will respond? It seems like anything but "above market expectations" gets punished at present. Hold IMO Rich