Quayle Munro Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 02/3/2005 21:21

Yes, PFI haven't really sprung into action though. I am sure they are destined for much bigger deals this year, which should benefit QYM as well.

[makingheaps] 02/3/2005 17:39

Current share price of PFI is about 10% ahead of the float price. There's a strong institutional following. They've made one disposal at a profit and four new acquisitions although only one of those is in a brand new project. QYM gains through an increase in the value of its holding (£1m at inception), through increased management fees and possibly advisory fees as well if they're involved as bankers to the deals ?

[topvest] 27/2/2005 17:11

QYM should do very well out of The PFI Infrastructure Fund imo that was floated on AIM last year. If you like the look of the QYM story then PFI is also worth a look. I hold both.

[mw8156] 27/2/2005 13:03

Quayle results this week.Presumably Morris is doing well judging by the progress of 'look-alike ' Ben Bailey. What is QYM going to do with the cash raised by the sell off of their holdings in PFI s.

[topvest] 25/1/2005 21:21

oh yes, well spotted! It all helps, I guess.

[stevie blunder] 24/1/2005 22:09

From the Annual report+

Seven investments account for 100% of the value of the portfolio and were as
follows:
Morris Group Limited 502 6,690 49

Quayle Munro PFI Fund Limited
Partnership 1,919 2,606 19

Falkirk Schools Partnership Limited 749 1,910 14

LH Project Limited (Larkfield Hospital) 360 1,097 8

KE Project Limited (James Watt College) 280 780 5

Tayside Flow Technologies Limited 900 650 5

Strakan Group Limited 76 50 –

4,786 13,783 100


also:

STRAKAN GROUP LIMITED
The group is engaged in the
research, development, registration,
manufacture, distribution and sale
of pharmaceuticals and other
similar products and related
services.


A small holding,as I said, valued at 50k

steve

[topvest] 24/1/2005 20:49

Are you sure QYM hold shares. Mentions London Merchant Securities though as a shareholder - I do own some of them as well.

[stevie blunder] 24/1/2005 11:56

One of QYM's holdings is going to float. Strakan, now Prostrakan, following a take over :






Will not have a big impact on NAV though, maybe 2-3p

steve

[makingheaps] 23/12/2004 18:07

If Ms Greenwood is prepared to pay £6.85 that must represent a fair value for the shares. Thats a quarter of a million quid she's just parted with. She must be confident or very rich and probably both

[makingheaps] 23/12/2004 18:03

Well the announcement of something was predictable and I'd still like to know who was buying this week and why.

Agree entirely with your comment on Greenwood/Uberior. Its in Uberior's interest to have her motivated and tied in for the long term with a stake. It would suggest also that this afternoons speculation on the Uberior holding on my part was misguided. But if QYM have sold the Falkirk holding back to the JV doesn't that indicate a moving apart? Why would HBOS want to continue with this partnership?

If this deal is what has pushed the price up (and I suspect it is) then it seems a bit over done. We've moved maybe £1.50 in a very short time compared to realising 36p. It was up 65p today alone! Not that I'm complaining.

And so we must return to the same question I posed when the main PFI assets were sold - what are they going to do with the cash? They can't possibly need that amount of working capital. Lets hope they've got some interesting ideas.

[stevie blunder] 23/12/2004 17:41

And Miriam Greenwood buys 37 thousand shares from Urberior.

From speaking to directors at the AGMs I know they have difficulty in getting stock in the market when they want to buy in size. So here it looks like they went to Urberior and asked them to release some stock for the new director.

Another indication of a narrow market, which I know can work both ways of course.....

[stevie blunder] 23/12/2004 16:33

The disposal announcement today adds about 36p to the NAV, and a lot of cash to the balance sheet, 3.2 million in fact.

If we don't get a special divi with the interims in Feb, I'll eat my hat, the only question is how much.

[stevie blunder] 23/12/2004 16:20

No profits taken, yet. In fact I have never sold a share of QYM. I could be tempted of course, but since I only moved them out of my PEP when they moved to AIM I would like to wait until the 2 year aniversary to get the maximum taper, I think that is next Nov? I have used up my CGT allowance this year, and would face a hefty tax bill if I sold right now in any case.


anyway i chose my nickname with care, so don't pay any attention to what i do......


steve

[makingheaps] 23/12/2004 15:00

Agree there's not much stock available. Ironically I've always thought this a negative for the shares because the spread was so large but it doesn't seem to be putting the punters off today. Two more deals for about £750 each. It would be a disappointment to see them disappear.

I sold half my holding at £6 so that shows I know nothing about this. What to do now with the rest? Taken any profits SB ?

[stevie blunder] 23/12/2004 11:37

Have to agree that they are looking pretty fully priced without some kind of corporate action in the offing. My estimate of NAV for year end june 2005 was in the 7-8 quid region.

However the Market Makers do seem to be mighty short of stock, the last rise this morning was triggered by a buy of only 250 shares. They must be close to issueing a statement, as they have done in the past when the price has moved unexpectedly.

Personally I would rather not see a bid for the company as it has done me so well over the years, I have no idea what I could buy to replace it!

cheers

steve

[makingheaps] 23/12/2004 11:13

No idea what is going on but when we find out there will be some insider dealing questions to be asked! What would make someone buy 1,000 shares first thing this morning? I think we're way beyond any logical pricing on the sort of model we've been used to over the last few years. My money is still on a bid approach for Morris. My only other theory is a takeover by HBOS. Its been on my mind they might change direction now that the PFI JV fund is effectively finished and I had thought they would look to sell. Maybe infact they will look to buy the 70% they don't already own. The directors would want quite a premium for their considerable stakes and HBOS would be keen to see them retained so might be prepared to pay the price. How would a tenner sound ?

[makingheaps] 21/12/2004 19:42

Very interesting. In my experience which is very limited patent filing involves quite a bit of spin and the decision to chalenge a patent filing or not is sometimes a question of cost and other times a question of what fighting the patent will force you to disclose. Often there are multiple patents granted around the same core technology and what is unique about each one is extremely subtle and difficult for the layman to understand.

Writing off submersible seems extremely cautious given the posts above which implied at least some value.

Ther has been a lot of talk about consolidation in the housebuilding sector. I wonder whether Morris has received an approach of some sort? A rumour like that might make someone buy 4000 QYM.

[stevie blunder] 17/12/2004 12:12

No idea why the share price is up, There was a 4000 buy at full price which did it though.

I note that Submersible TV surveys has been written off in the accounts, there is no value assigned to it that i can see. If they could sell it to the management there would be a small uplift.

On the subject of Tayside, I came accross this:



"Scientists are developing a device which they say could improve the lives of kidney dialysis patients.
Most have a synthetic tube inserted under the skin, where they are "hooked up" to a machine every few days.

But this places huge pressure on patients' veins, which can close up, leading to them needing surgery to correct the problem.

Experts at Imperial College are developing a spiral shaped graft which they say will not have these problems. "

There is a bit more, if you click the link.

mmmmm, spiral shaped graft, I wonder if Tayside should phone their lawyers?

seriously though, this looks like more data backing up the technology and increases, IMHO, the chances of success at Tayside. I just hope the patents are robust enough to withstand attack from the big boys,


steve

[makingheaps] 15/12/2004 13:40

Any reason for the rise late yesterday and today ?

[makingheaps] 26/11/2004 13:51

I find the comments in the RNS about improvements in profit at Morriss puzzling as I don't see how profits can possibly improve with the additional cost of all the debt they've taken on. All the data suggests a 30% reduction in housing transactions year on year which is as important to a builder than the house prices themselves which seem to be holding up OK.

Since the move to AIM these have had a good run. I can't see 2005 being as positive as 2004. Hope I'm wrong as I still hold them.

[stevie blunder] 05/11/2004 18:18

attended the AGM today.

They were pretty positive on the current year, (see the RNS released )

On Morris, there was no further update, but they seem confident that it is still a good investment for them.I had it confirmed that the carrying value of 6.69 million includes the 4.7 million loan notes, ie the equity is valued at very little so far.

They confirmed that Tayside are on track for human trials next year, nothing new here, but they seem quietly optomistic that it could work out well.

steve

[stevie blunder] 01/11/2004 21:13

On the subject of Submersible TV surveys, I have the latest accounts to Dec 2003 from Companies House. available here:




The file is in pdf format, so I can't cut and paste, but it only costs £4 if you want the details.

Overall turnover was down slightly at 4million, but post tax profits rose from 272k to 329k , although that included a "gain on the sale of a fixed asset".

Turnover collapsed in the UK, but jumped in the Middle East

They had "Equity and non-equity shareholders funds" of 2.3 million at year end.

They were able to make dividend payments on the preference shares, and said about future prospects:
"the directors are confident that STS's trading results will continue to grow"

They continued their diversification into the Middle East in 2003, and in 2004 planned to diversify into South East Asia and the Americas.

Comment:

The large rise in business in the middle East is encouraging, but they are still struggling IMHO. there are still arrears on the preference shares, and the prefs are also past their redemption date. i feel they are under capitalised, and the prefs could be swapped for equity and the balance sheet cleaned up, that might allow a listing on Ofex? just a thought.

steve

[stevie blunder] 01/11/2004 20:23

On the subject of Morris, in the finals the following appeared:

"Morris directors
feel confident that for their year ending 31st March 2005 the company will
again increase operating and pre tax profits."

Now, pre-tax profits to year end 31st march 2004 were 20.3 million, so let's assume 21 million. Tax at 30% gives 14.7 million post tax.

Since Morris started the year with no net assets, that figure is also their NAV at year end, 14.7 million. Apply a p/e of 2, given the lack of asset backing, and you could value morris at 30 million as of next march.


That values the QYM 23% share at around 7 million, plus the loan notes.

If we allow the value of Morris to rise in line with retained profits in future years, say 15 million, then the associated rise in the QYM stake is around 3.5 million/year, or about 100p/share, underpinning a 15% plus growth in QYM NAV.

All depending on the market for new houses of course.......


steve

[makingheaps] 27/10/2004 18:05

Now some better news from housebuilders, looking at wetherbury reorts yesterday and a brokers upgrade to Bellaway today...confusing.....could go either way