Quayle Munro Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 09/7/2007 08:25

Interesting announcement this morning. Special dividend, acquisition and Morris Group doing better than expected. Not bad for a Monday morning!

[makingheaps] 29/6/2007 18:52

What do AMG do?

[stevie blunder] 27/6/2007 21:17

Been looking at AMG Systems where QYM hold 20%.

They have filed their returns at companies House for year end Dec 2006. Unfortunately they are using the Small Company reporting format, which means they do not spell out their profit figures.

However they do provide a balance sheet which shows net share holders funds have risen from £214,135 to £1,642,613 over the course of the year. The share structure stayed the same during the year, so no new capital was raised.

I make that a retained profit of 1.4 million. Nay bad.

At the interim stage QYM said: " we are
currently assessing what may be an appropriate policy in respect of this much
improved investment."

So maybe a trade sale? at the very least a rise in the carrying value is on the cards, OK not much in great scheme of things, it was only on the books at 400k, but it all helps.

:-)


PS my 800 shares at 1290 never showed up as a trade. Weird, I give up understanding the workings of the stockmarket sometimes.

[stevie blunder] 08/6/2007 17:49

Call me mad, but I bought a few back at 1290. That is close to the NAV (IMHO) so should be well underpinned. Famous last words.......

[joan of arc] 04/6/2007 13:40

The price has jumped again with no buys/sells. Beats me what is going on!!

[joan of arc] 04/6/2007 10:54

That's pretty much my view as well MH

[makingheaps] 04/6/2007 09:45

I wonder if in the rumour mill there is talk of Bank of Scotland selling their stake. It was never clear ot me why they had it in the first place and without the Pifco assets it seems to make even less sense. This seems to be a real cross roads for the company and for the share price to rise the directors need to show clear leadership and direction. Sitting on a pile of cash isn't what the market wants or BOS for that matter.Its been eerily quiet since the Pifco deal was announced. I have no problem with them taking their time but hope they are decisive and innovative when they make an announcement.

[joan of arc] 01/6/2007 13:04

I suspect that the price is determined by the mood of the MMs. It went up to £20 with no buys and all the way back likewise with virtually no sells. If the MMs have no stock worth talking of they are going to keep shaking this until they can start getting someone to buy. After all they only make money by having an ACTIVE market.
The fundamentals have not changed.

[topvest] 01/6/2007 10:53

I'm in MRS and this as well! QYM has been very weak of late, but not sure that anything has changed really apart from the receipt of a big chunk of cash on the PFI takeover.

[makingheaps] 01/6/2007 10:35

QYM down again today. I think you are right this has to ba a market thing rather than fundamentals. Maybe some concern that they will lose the Pifco contract as the new owners will self manage but just can't see what the problem with that is assuming they launch a new fund to replace it. We must be getting near the point where a top up is contemplatable.

MRS has also been a drag this year. Still holding all my shares and hoping for the best. Have to admit its been disappointing in the last 12 months and my exposure proportionately is too large which has been a mistake.

[stevie blunder] 31/5/2007 14:40

HICL will be dull but reliable, I hope. I put half my Pifco cash there and the other half into insurance stock Catlin. Produced a nice and unexpected rise in income :-))

The slide in QYM is a bit weird, the house building sector is holding up fairly well. There seem to be buggar-all trades, although with the reporting rules for AIM stocks, we won't know for sure for a few days, maybe somebody is off-loading. Would be nice to see some director buying at these lower levels. They must be around NAV now, at least if you add in the performance bonus for PFI. Still my biggest holding by far, so proving a bit of a drag on performance this quarter ;-) Am I bovvered??? Not a lot...

I think you are in Melrose too? not long till the next drill results, fingers crossed.....

[makingheaps] 31/5/2007 14:08

Steve, Liked your idea to move Pifco cash into HICL. Took the plunge yesterday following good results. shame I didn't make the move before the results but there you go. They were trading at a premium to NAV and now just under so hope to make small annual gains in addition to a yield that is still over 5%. Thanks for the idea. Meanwhile QYM has clearly drifted lower on the news and there may be concerns over the housing market. Your call in top slicing at £1400 looks good as you could get back in lower today.

[makingheaps] 11/5/2007 14:30

I believe the lady they hired to specialise the debt finance did a big bond issue for Cairn and then left. Not sure what became of the rest of the department.

[joan of arc] 10/5/2007 09:36

So steady as she goes, eh boys? Still it would be nice to think they are now working 'aggressively' on their strategy as to where they next take us. If not then we will end up with a company that has a ragbag of minor businesses.

They were getting into Debt Management at one time. I wonder if that came to much.

[makingheaps] 09/5/2007 21:48

My view at the moment JoA is that these are good value being strongly supported as SB has detailed by the asset base. Where we go from here depends on how innovative the directors are. They are sitting on a lot of cash which frankly needs to be put to better use or returned to us as excess capital. As an investor naturally I would prefer the former. They also have a very strong reputation in the PFI market both as advisors and investors. Again in my view they need to be a bit more aggressive in diversifying outside of Scotland and in the variety of PFI projects they are involved in. Setting up PFI plc was a very innovative move so they can do it but as you are well aware having been in for 10 years you have to be patient.

[stevie blunder] 08/5/2007 15:49

True, the revenue from the merchant bank side and fund management might well slip. I couldn't hazard a guess as to how much. The 2 year notice period gives them some leeway however.

On the Asset side however the picture is much better. NAV at the interims was 1020p per share. Since then we have the sale of the PFI shares and the future payment of the performance fee of 7.5 million. Also by the finals in Sept I think we could have an increase in the carrying value of Morris, Subsermible TV and AMG systems. The Performance fee may not be on the balance sheet by then, but treating it as if it was, I think we should be looking at an NAV of around 1300p, pro forma.

In future years we could assume the value attributed to the holding in Morris should rise by at least the retained profits of Morris, that works out to be about a pound per QYM share per year.

Then there is Tayside Flow Technology, which could be a biggie if the technology works and the intellectual property is secure. Whatever, it is probably worth more than it is on the books for. If the fund raising is successful, then QYM could use the issue price of the new equity to re-value its holding, probably upwards.

Anyway, having sold a third of my holding at 1400, I intend to hold the rest long term.

[joan of arc] 04/5/2007 09:05

So MH what you are saying is that QYM are now at fair value. Do you or anyone else care to hazard a guess as to what the ongoing revenue stream for the new QYM might be.
I have held these for over 10 years. It's been a fabulously steady earner (and a 10 bagger for me) but I am wondering if they are now entering a plateau especially with future PFI and resultant consultancy starting to dry up. After all the RNS also contained a veiled profits warning.

[makingheaps] 03/5/2007 10:41

Price marked up £1 this morning which is more like it! Morris is now worth about a tenner, after the PFI sale there maybe £2.50 cash per share and an advisory business worth £2.50 so £15 share price is well supported. The other unquoted investments are pretty much in there for free.

[stevie blunder] 02/5/2007 17:27

Our posts crossed there.

I had missed the bit about them starting a new fund, they certainly have the reputation and experience to get institutional backing if they go that route.

[stevie blunder] 02/5/2007 17:25

"At the offer price of 308p per share this
additional fee would amount to approximately #7.5 million payable in December
2009."

That is about 2 quid a share to QYM ! (Has to be taxed of course.)

The sale of the PFI stake raises 3.7 million

The cash is piling up right enough!

If the re-financing of Submersible Television Surveys Limited goes ahead, as they suggested at the interims, they get the preference shares repaid, "£270,000 8% redeemable preference shares and £500,000
10% redeemable preference shares." plus they sell the equity back down to below 50% for another say 1 million (at least)


So great on the asset side, not so good on the trading side as the PFI bandwagon slows and they lose the management fee for PFI co.

Got to be good news overall though?

[makingheaps] 02/5/2007 17:15

Looks like even if the contract to manage the fund id cancelled they would get a bonus of £7.5m and some sort of notice. Infact if I'm reading it correctly the £7.5m is guaranteed by the take out price. Note as well that if they are dismissed they will start a new fund so in the medium term there should be no change to the ongoing model. This looks like a great deal for QYM. Not sure why the shares haven't moved.

[makingheaps] 02/5/2007 17:00

Looks like great news from PIFCO. Yet more for the cash pile. Nice update on the unquoted portfolio too although no comment on Tayflow I notice.

[makingheaps] 30/4/2007 18:50

My guess would be that there are concerns that the valuation of Morriss can't go up forever and there is little sign of them being included in any way in the current phase of consolidation. Alternatively continued lack of newsflow concerning the cash pile and what to do with it. Can't see anything wrong with the advisory business although the timing of "closures" has been a bit of an issue in the past. PFI shares are at an all time high. All other investments are almost inconsequential.

[joan of arc] 28/4/2007 20:13

This is going down as inexplicably as it went up. Anyone any ideas as to why?