Punch Taverns Share Discussion Threads

[edwh] 21/11/2014 08:34

Because it was owned by a different company and the deal was a lot better

[edwh] 21/11/2014 08:30

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/money/pub-shares-tumble-as-mps-call-time-on-beer-rules/a784548?re=31713&ea=285590&utm_source=BulkEmail_Money_Daily_Summary&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Money_Daily_Summary&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Money_Daily_Summary

[jeffian] 21/11/2014 08:30

As a matter of interest, why did you not take a free-of-tie pub in the first place?

[edwh] 21/11/2014 08:26

I pay a large rent,so my business rates are high,can't afford Sky,no money gets spent on the pub,the living accomadation is uninhabitable,free of tie i would be able to buy my beer and bottles nearly 1/2 price,i could do special offers,get more customers,been in the trade for a very long time,please please pass this bill and i can start to enjoy running a pub and make some money.Doubt very much if the rent would go up because it is high compared to other businesses nearby.

[edwh] 20/11/2014 21:04

I've worked out that I would be about £26,000 a year better off if free of tie and my boozer isn't that busy!!!!!

[edwh] 20/11/2014 20:57

If Punch tenants are able to buy there stock free of tie then that will be the end of punch taverns as they charge ridiculously high prices for there beer,lager,cider etc,great news for tenants as we can actually make some money,can't see Punch lasting much longer,they will have to sell most of there pubs on the cheap.

[jeffian] 24/10/2014 13:32

I saw that, timbo, but that isn't the answer. What "revenue and cost synergy benefits"? If you're merging 2 estates, there's clearly costs to be cut out in terms of merging them under one management instead of 2, but they haven't got an estate management team in place so they'll have to keep most of the existing people on, thus no or few savings. The rest is just about having an estate to sell their products through (i.e. a 'tied estate'). As half of it is retail (managed), I doubt the managers will be thrilled to have C&C products foisted on them when they may prefer to sell something else more profitably. In my experience, lager drinkers are very fussy (Gawd knows why; it all tastes the same!) and you can't just take Carling or whatever out, stick Tennents in and expect them to like it. No compelling case here as far as I can see.

[timbo003] 24/10/2014 12:48

Here's the answer jeffian



I was intrigued by this part of the statement :

C&C’s management team is experienced in running a vertically integrated pub and long alcohol drinks business

They are certainly not doing that now at C&C



Although digging a bit deeper I see that many of them are ex-Scottish and Newcastle, so perhaps that counts:

[jeffian] 24/10/2014 09:58

Well, they haven't yet. Looks like a bit of a 'spoiler'.

"THIS ANNOUNCEMENT IS NOT AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF A FIRM INTENTION TO MAKE AN OFFER UNDER RULE 2.7 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE "CODE") AND THERE CAN BE NO CERTAINTY THAT AN OFFER WILL BE MADE, NOR AS TO THE TERMS ON WHICH ANY OFFER WILL BE MADE"

It's hard to see what 'synergies' would be achieved by tacking a pub estate onto a cidermaker/brewer. It just becomes a vertically integrated brewery/pubco, doesn't it?

[timbo003] 24/10/2014 08:57

A few more details on C&Cs approach to Spirit here.

It seems that C&C offered £1.15p/share with a bigger cash element.

[timbo003] 23/10/2014 18:35

A counter offer (announced after the close today) for Spirit from C&C group, the Irish based drinks group which produce brands such as Tennent's Lager and Magners Cider has been rejected by the Spirit BOD.

Fascinating stuff. Bidding battle ahead?

[timbo003] 23/10/2014 10:18

Thanks tt

If you look at it from an asset perspective and ignore Matthew Clarke (which they could probably float of or sell for £50M i.e. 22p/share). I would have thought that the Enterprise value per outlet for PUB and ETI should be more or less equivalent (if you ignore PUB's Matthew Clarke asset), in which case PUB are lagging behind by around £70K per outlet

If they have say 4000 pubs, multiply by £70K and you end up with £280M, which is about £1.30p/share, so using ETI as a comparator, PUB shares should be around £2.70p/share to have parity. They are currently around £1.40, so your decision to switch from ETI to PUB looks like a good one to me.

[the troll] 22/10/2014 18:08

EV's; ETI - ( £600m MC + £2,500m DEBT ) = £6.20 ps / c.£568K per outlet ( source 2014 interims ) & PUB ( £310m MC [ @ £1.40 ] + £1,600m [ approx. ] DEBT ) = £8.64 ps / c.£498K per outlet. ( source; recent circulars & management guidance )

MC divided by EBITDA; ETI approx. 2x & PUB approx. 1.55x ( that's VERY low indeed ).

ETI's trading on c. 58 % discount to NTA & PUB c. 70 %

est. P/e's; ETI = 6.5x & PUB 4x

conclusion, both look attractive but PUB exceptionally so. ( all IMHO & NAI )

your missus did alright, timbo ?

[timbo003] 22/10/2014 10:08

See today's Morning Advertiser, Mathew Clarke doing well:


As discussed early in the thread, Punch own 50% of these and if they are on Punch's books at around £50M, so should account for around 22p/share, given that there are around 222M shares in issue.


I wonder if that accounts for the rise yesterday.

[timbo003] 22/10/2014 08:58

tt

Do we have an accurate idea on what the enterprise values (market cap plus debt) are for PUB and ETI at the mo', with all debt taken into account. I'm not going to rely on ADVFN fundementals, cos' they will not be up to date.

The missus was looking to recycle some ISA divis last Friday, so I suggested she bought a few PUB, she procured 5K at 127.51p, so I'm hoping that will be close to the bottom.

[the troll] 21/10/2014 18:06

as respects market value, timbo, it's interesting a £158m valuation surplus ( ie. £0.71 pps & more than HALF the Co.s current market cap. ! ) was identified @ Aug, 2011, but NEVER written into the books ( see FD's review @ page 20 of 2011 Stat A/c's ). this puts my current 'first stab' NAV north of £5 per share; a degree of comfort, perhaps, when you're one of the few who see value here.

further, the current share price ( with debt 'sorted' & plans to invest again ) is lower ( on average ) than when CO. was warning of administration ( a new meaning to the phrase 'travel hopefully...... ). personally, I think management ( particularly Steve Dando ) have worked absolute miracles in saving this from the wolves & am looking to add ( NAI ).

[timbo003] 20/10/2014 07:43

Increased offer for Spirit today from Green King.

Those chartist were definitely looking at the wrong charts earlier this year (I did tell 'em!). If they had stared long enough in to their tea leaves, I'm sure they could have made out the initials SPRT rather than PUB.

[timbo003] 16/10/2014 07:48

Looks like you were a bit early tt, although I can definitely see where you are coming from here.

I do worry however about the book value of some of their properties at the lower end of their portfolio.

In the geographical area that I am interested in (SW), many have suffered years of neglect, a good number are listed and I'm sure many will be regarded as potential Assets of Community Value (all bad new), in fact some of them should probably be considered liabilities, not assets.

I will keep watching for now and look for an entry point at about 120p (6p in old money)

[the troll] 14/10/2014 17:56

'thank you Officer Ripley, that will be all....', at least 'till Co's next announcement....

[the troll] 14/10/2014 11:56

it's good I'm the only pi left following ETI & this,

this way, when the 'herd' reads a broker's note or such like & piles in, I'll be the one who cleans up.

[the troll] 13/10/2014 17:56

it's OK, I've re-checked & am happy with my calcs.

switching from ETI ( expensive now C/w this one - NAI ) to fund my purchases.

[the troll] 13/10/2014 11:56

market cap. @ 1.38 = £306m;

( my ) best estimates; NTA's = £1 bn ( ie, @ 1.3 14 = £329m + £600m debt reduction + 7 months profit - excludes private placing monies allocated to reorganisation costs ) & PE c. 4X. IMHO it's wrongly priced & I'm seriously thinking of going 'all in'. any views ?