Providence Resources Share Discussion Threads

[hoper2] 11/9/2017 20:13

TOR must be a bloody genius. He gets paid 500k a year - and has for many years - and so far all he's done is discover water in the seas off Ireland. Even Warren Buffett couldn't do that.

[rogerlin] 11/9/2017 19:58

It is about one year since Pat Plunkett came and there has been a big drill at Druid and Drombeg with farm outs and also the farm out on Avalon, pretty good progress, not his fault that the share price was where it was and hope surely of other things to come. Just a shame about the water.

[hermana3] 11/9/2017 19:35

TGS did it and we know who put them up to it. Very Tanned lad knew it was Total couldnt say owt as farmout was not RNS ed

[rogerlin] 11/9/2017 19:24

Hermana, is Total not Operator of Avalon? Cairn only have an option I think. I have got confused about the seismic, did the TGS Crean survey cover Avalon. They seem confident it would be charged differently from Druid, that's hopeful.

[steelwatch] 11/9/2017 19:14

herm - tis only c.100m and duration c.50 days inc mob/demob. If such a rig could be obtained @ $100kpd, $5m would cover + contingencies. Total well costs could be considerably cheaper than the c$20m previously indicated (from memory).

[spuddymadrid] 11/9/2017 19:11

Hello Hermana

Total did their own seismic study on Avalon. At AGM We were Told a 3rd Party had been surveying Avalon i.e Providences licence. Few weeks later Total signed Farm in for 50% paying 60% of cost. The belief that oil May Have migrated from Dunquin in mind as well. Think Cairn were alot more sober in their assesmrnt of Druid/Drombeg. Remember seeing 13 % COS as their estimation contradicting other sources taking about 40%. See no possibility that Total Will opt out of Avalon. There exposure is approximately 25m. Cairn about 11m and Providence/Sosina 7m. For 12bn potential These Are tiny sums. These Boys need to replace reserves either cheaply with wildcat drills or more expensively through takeovers or appraisal Farm ins. Providence should take over LOGP (1/7) share swap. Thereafter Farm down 40% for appraisal carry and cash 50m. If appraisal successful seek project finance to develop Field themselves. All costs can be written Off against revenue. Sell futures forward to lock in revenue stream against envisioned production. Think Pat Plunkett and Mcgoss Are there to do something Like that. Thereafter share price appraisal with cash on hand. We Are all feeling down today but I believe We Are in a much stronger position Than a few years ago. All the best. Ah: also believe Bsrryroe may connect to deep Kinsale and Amergin at lower jurassic level. Was told at AGM during a chst that Barryroe much bigger Than earlier thought !!!!

[hermana3] 11/9/2017 19:06

Steel, tis only 200m so a jackup designed for harsh conditions could suffice. Drilling ran into late Autumn last time around. Expecting a May 2018 drill this time around.

[steelwatch] 11/9/2017 18:57

Whilst the rig selected to drill Barryroe is likely to follow the usual semi-sub path, just musing that there are jack-ups designed for harsh conditions and water depths in excess of requirements.

One such rig is Ensco 122 awarded a two-well contract with NAM in the North Sea that is expected to commence in September 2017:





Per VesselsValue, NAM, will utilize the rig on a five-month drilling contract beginning Oct 1 and terminating on Feb 28, 2018. The contracted dayrate is believed to be about $100,000 corresponding to a total value of around $15 million.

[steelwatch] 11/9/2017 18:46

herm - a bit down? LOL

[hermana3] 11/9/2017 18:45

Spuddy, Are you assuming Total will exercise their option on Avalon? Think Cairn probably will as they like the area but like the rest of us are bound to be a bit down over the result of these two drills.

[richie666] 11/9/2017 18:22

Ceph - reality was that the stock price was rising last Thurs aft and I enquired re buying more stock. I was met with a "none available" retort but, more intriguingly, that the MM's were expecting an imminent RNS hence our relaying of this market intelligence. As the stock began to rise, and as we have covered the stock extensively for retail investors, we relayed this information via the quickest medium which is twitter.

What happened was that the "twitterati" latched onto this and the rest as they say history. There was a lot of informed commentary re gas shows at the drill hence the conjecture of what many were speculating had been found.

Anyway, what's done is done now. Key is how PVR moves forward. To me this is a merger or sale, likely agitated by Pageant and/or the removal of the unlucky one ToR Jnr.

[greyingsurfer] 11/9/2017 18:18

the whole seismic on the southern porcupine basin is flawedHave you any evidence for that, neo? Failure to find HCs doesn't mean seismic was flawed. Seismic doesn't identify HCs. Most wells drilled with promising seismic come up dry.From what little we know so far it appears there was a reservoir where the seismic predicted, but it was water wet, not HC wet. If that's true the seismic was good - it identified what it could correctly. No sign it was flawed.Peter

[spuddymadrid] 11/9/2017 17:56

Hello Neo26. I Have heard the seismic flaw theory. And based on Drombeg / Druid looks Like a fair statement. However dunquin was not a failure it was a technical Success ( even if it did not Feel Like one). Residual oil in considerable quantity. So the oil migrated elsewhere When ceiling broke. There is oil, it just needs to be located. Took years to locate oil in North Sea. Total Have done their own Analysis on Avalon. For these big oil companies 20-30-40m is peanuts. They set aside An amount of money for exploration in order to build reserves. For them it is a question of statistics. With costs so low they can afford more drills I.e more rolls of the dice. My bet is Cairn Will elect to exercise option. To much in play. For total the amount is buttons

[steelwatch] 11/9/2017 17:37

Academic now, but Icemax appears to have moved back into the safety zone. Edda Frende still at Ringaskiddy quayside due to sail tomorrow at 16:00 with Skandi Flora due to arrive Cork South Jetties tomorrow and Sjoborg expected Ringaskiddy on Thursday at 16:00.

As previously posted, Esvagt Don due to arrive Aberdeen Thursday next week, by which time I imagine the rig may be gone.

[cephalosaurus] 11/9/2017 17:29

Richie, it comes across that your city whispers were not City, therefore, but the bulletin board rumours. Has it occured to you that 'sources' also feed you information to suit their own ends. Dry ships was a pump and dump of classic style, and someone used you for that.

[neo26] 11/9/2017 17:26

spuddy

im not too sure it certain they will take it up.

the whole seismic on the southern porcupine basin is flawed, druid/drombeg and dunquin have come up being dusters, the odds are avalon being the same...

The only lifeline is barryroe, now they are in weak position again...

[spuddymadrid] 11/9/2017 17:20

Ok. This was Bad news and Richie was certainly not to blame for outcome. Agree with Mamms on III that drombeg / Druid can best be forgotten. They found some bitumen shows that Point to possible Oil escape. What matters now is whether Cairn opt to Take their 20% option in Ávalon. Bet they Will. It is near to Dunquin where residual oil was found. So If Cairn stay in the Game we still Have Another big shot 2018/2019 for circa 5m Cost to Providence. Need now to Get Rig for Barryroe and Farm down. See a Providence take over of LOGP in advance. A Farm out of 40% for appraisal drill (including) jurasic plus some Cash Would be ok. This Cash could help to appraise Spanish Point for example.

[greyingsurfer] 11/9/2017 17:17

Given the flak we have taken in some quarters for relaying market intelligence & repeating on-line speculation we had rather keep our rumours in house!Oh, yes please, Ritchie!

[richie666] 11/9/2017 17:09

Neo try the iii board or LSE - all there plain as day.

Our position has INCREASED since the original duster announcement.

[neo26] 11/9/2017 17:07

"2. All over the on-line commentary forums was speculation (read "conjecture") of a gas find."

Richie, where was that, did you sell any when share price increased by 40% last week.

[hermana3] 11/9/2017 16:44

Bet he,JOS and wee Nally will be wearing disguise in the City for a while now....

[richie666] 11/9/2017 16:38

You probably ain't wrong there Herm!

[hermana3] 11/9/2017 16:36

Richie, Bet your pal Tone despaired when he read your wee piece as he knew by then that he had another "Witches' tit" on his hands.....

[hermana3] 11/9/2017 16:34

Bradford is on de map now. The former Chancellor of the Exchequer is editor there now.