Project Telecom Share Discussion Threads

[stuart_moose] 11/7/2003 14:10

70p in no time ;0

[master rsi] 11/7/2003 14:07

The L2 is improving all the time now 2 on the bid and only 1 on offer

[saskatoon] 11/7/2003 14:06

why ?.... after the 1m cross trade @ 56p

[master rsi] 11/7/2003 14:04

After the profit taking, now could be the time to get in again, for the ones who like excitement ahead of the weekend newspaper talk, 55 - 57p now.

[scotty500] 11/7/2003 14:00

The statement specifically says approache(s) and partie(s).

Vodafone has been touted as one ...but who else ?

[potentials] 10/7/2003 19:28

Well I have bought some of these over the last few days - hopefully they will continue to creep up!

[iampoor] 09/7/2003 20:57

have jumped ship from spt and thus ... am i mad or as usual ..will i remain ...poor....

[37dolphin] 08/7/2003 11:24

Check this out:-

Sales
2002 - 315m
2003 - 152m (latest analyst forecast)
Note - sales reduction due to closure of retail business (high turnover but low margin), now concentrating on higher margin corporate services business.

Pre Tax Profit
2002 - 12.5m
2003 - 15.2m (22% increase latest analyst forecast)
EPS
2002 - 3.29p
2003 - 4.3p (31% increase latest analyst forecast)
Share Price
March 2003 - 70p
March 2004 - ???p

[thumbtwiddle] 04/7/2003 10:47

Hi Paul - I bailed out of CRI and piled into Yoo. regretted ever getting into that cri lot, straight after bailing out of bgy of all things! anyway, yoo, har and cst are now my longer term plays and i'm exceedingly happy with that. bit of day trading on yoo a while back made up for 70% of my cri losses, so evens stevens... or just about!

[paulkent] 04/7/2003 10:43

hi thumb...yeah..i had this before when it collapsed at about 39p, but chucked it after it lost a few more pence....cant remember why..think i was into YOO at the time...thank god!!!!....
cant believe you baled out of the fun on CRI tho!!!...it still gives me my daily entertainment quota and adrenlain rush, all in one CRI-pill!!!!!!

[thumbtwiddle] 03/7/2003 14:15

PK - Hi. looks exciting...

[paulkent] 03/7/2003 13:48

most of the dont know column are buys..this is moving..

[37dolphin] 03/7/2003 11:59

good move RedPin.

Notice that analysts have now increased eps forecast for y/e 2003 to 4.3p

[redpin] 03/7/2003 11:09

loaded up on these this morning

[37dolphin] 03/7/2003 11:07

I think the market is beginning to realise the potential here, volumes up over the last couple of days.
Interim results due out on 29th Aug.
Have been looking at potential y/e 2003 cash position:-

As at y/e 2002 Cash, securities - £14m
Bank Loans - £2m
Net Cash - £12m
Purchase of IMS Telecom (May 03)- £2m
Sale of PTD (July 03) - £2m
Potential min free cash y/e 03 - £7m

Potential y/e 03 Net Cash - £19m

[paulkent] 03/7/2003 09:32

"Project Telecom ticked 1p higher to 44p amid rumours of a
70p-a-share bid. According to yesterday's gossip, the mobile phone giant Vodafone is among those interested in the telecom services group"

i like that..vodafone is "AMONG" those interested!!...might get more than one bid!!?...frankly i think that if £12million in profit is as bad as this is going to do judging by their comments earlier in yr, then its worth buying jsut for the divi even IF no bid comes thru..but chances are that the profitability (and adding to it) is exactly WHY other parties will be interested...and youre right 37dolphin, selling PTD ADDS to profit AND generates cash...good deal..

[37dolphin] 02/7/2003 17:31

Today looks as if 327k buys and only 83k sells.
Good news.
Sale of PTD boosts cash position by £1.7m.
Also, should increase profit of main business as PTD was generating a loss of £100k and reinforces new strategic direction.
Interest gathering as year end news approaches.....
Would expect a return to healthy free cash flow now retail business closed, balance sheet getting stronger.

PaulKent - agree a valuation of £150m looks right, if achieve only half of 2001 free cash flow (approx 2001 £14m, 2002 (£15m) but included closure costs of £21m), 2003 £7m plus?), then should be sailing....

[paulkent] 02/7/2003 10:31

paulk!??..i think people will start confusing us!!!!!!

[paulk] 02/7/2003 10:18

Heard rumours of the same thing, specifically Vodafone sniffing around. And who can blame them? This company is a bit of a bargain!

[paulkent] 02/7/2003 08:33

"Project Telecom PLC said it has lowered its full-year growth
targets and now expects profits from continuing operations will be broadly in
line with those in 2002 "

well that means over £12mill profit in difficult trading period...so at mkt cap of still only £100mill, no wonder vodaphone or someone else would want them..at over £12mill profit in bad times..should go up to £15 to £20 mill in better days...justifying mkt cap of well over £150mill i wouldve thought...

[banj] 01/7/2003 22:44

.Arawak Energy. 2Q06 results strong, production rising
Arawak Energy reported 2Q06 Canadian GAAP results yesterday, which showed very strong revenue and cash flow growth, both y-o-y and q-o-q, and underscored Arawak's ability to profit from rapidly growing output and high oil prices.

Production averaged 7.54mbpd in 2Q06, up 19% q-o-q. It was 2.5% lower than earlier reported by the energy ministries of Russia and Kazakhstan, although slight differences between energy ministry and company data are very common.

Arawak production strong, in line with official data In bbl mn 2Q05 1Q06 2Q06 (Ministry of Energy of RF, KZ) 2Q06F % chg.
q-o-q % chg.
y-o-y Actual vs. reported by MoE
Pechoraneftegaz 5.8 6.8 7.0
Altius Petroleum 2.0 3.0 4.2
Arawak Energy 4.9 6.4 7.6 7.75 19% 32% -2.5%


Source: Company data, Aton estimates

Revenue increased 23% q-o-q and 143% y-o-y to $34.2mn. Due to the discretionary nature of crude deliveries sales volumes were 4% lower than production, hence the slight shortfall in revenue (and an inventory build), which is likely to be reversed in subsequent upcoming quarters.

Operating expenses rose 34% q-o-q and 82% y-o-y to $17.1mn, exceeding our estimate by 7% due to high non-income tax expenses, which in turn were caused by the higher than expected export/domestic sales ratio in Russian crude deliveries (40%, compared to our estimate of 20%). EBITDA rose 13% q-o-q and more than tripled y-o-y to $17.1mn.

Operating cash flows were surprisingly strong at $16.4mn, exceeding our expectations.

Options issued to management in April resulted in a $1.1mn paper loss, and net income was reported at $5mn, slightly lower than 1Q06 but a nine-fold increase y-o-y. Adjusted net income was $6.1mn, 13% lower than our estimate.

Strong q-o-q, y-o-y growth in revenues, cash flows In $mn 2Q05 1Q06 2Q06 2Q06F % chg.
q-o-q % chg.
y-o-y Actual vs. Aton
Dated Brent, $/bbl 48.11 61.96 70.63 14% 47%
Revenue 14.08 27.87 34.18 35.05 23% 143% -2%
Operating expenses -9.36 -12.76 -17.08 -15.95 34% 82% 7%
EBITDA 4.72 15.12 17.10 19.10 13% 262% -10%
EBITDA margin 34% 54% 50% 54% -4pp 16pp -4%
DD&A -2.84 -5.31 -5.74 -5.86 8% 102% -2%
Stock option expenses N.A, N.A, -1.11 N.A, N.A, N.A, N.A,
EBIT 1.88 9.81 10.25 13.24 4% 444% -23%
Pretax profit 1.23 9.65 9.61 12.63 0% 683% -24%
Income tax -0.66 -4.36 -4.58 -5.59 5% 593% -18%
Net income 0.57 5.29 5.03 7.04 -5% 788% -29%
Net margin 4% 19% 15% 20% -4pp 11pp -5%
Adjusted net income N.A, N.A, 6.14 7.04 N.A, N.A, -13%


Source: company data, Aton estimates

Overall the results were generally in line with our expectations, with the exception of the crude inventory growth and slightly higher than expected paper loss, and show that the company is on track to meet our forecasts. This is also supported by the company's statement that current production exceeds 9mbpd, 18% above the 2Q06 average, with the bulk of the increase in Kazakhstan, which bodes well for production and profitability in the third quarter.

Arawak Energy remains our top peak in the Caspian region, with a target price of $4.54 implying 80% upside form the current level. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.

novicedave - 25 Aug'06 - 17:16 - 2254 of 2301


Chip's method is more accurate, but for predicting future earnings, and so for any NAV calculations:

For each year you need the following variables:
P- Processing Rate (tpa)
Zg- Average Zinc grade of ore (g/t)
Gg- Average Gold grade of ore (g/t)
Zp- Zinc price ($/t)
Sp- Silver price ($/oz)
Gp- Gold price ($/oz)
C- Costs per tonne of ore processed (likely to be more accurate in the face of a variable zinc grade than cost per tonne of zinc produced).

To calculate income for a year you then perform the following equation:

0.66 * P * Zg * (Zp + Sp * 5.95) + Gg * P * (Gp / 31.1)

Costs are then obviously C * P

So you have profits for each year from now on (income – costs), although from halfway through 2008 you have to allow for the 60:40 JV split and from 2009 you have to allow for taxes (which are 10% for 2009-11, 16.5% to 2016, 18% thereafter). So from then on its a standard NAV model:
i.e '06 earnings + 0.9 * E'07 + 0.9*0.9*E'08 + 0.9*0.9*0.9E'09 and so on (assuming a 10% discount rate)

Sorry this post is so short and condensed, bit short of time. If you have any queries one of me or chip will try to answer them later on i'm sure.

ND

Ps: costs in 2005 were $35 per tonne of ore processed.

The currently defined mining resource (although not the area currently being mined, which is lower grade) is "Probable – 2.57 million tonnes of ore at 12.59% zinc (7% cut off), 0.42 g/t gold and 445.63 g/t silver."

pps: both grades need to allow for recovery losses (for zinc this is around 8-10%, for gold we dont know yet) and you need to allow for the fact that the new plan is to recover gold in concentrate, which will probably lead to say a 30-40% discount to the spot price.


TheManWithNoName - 25 Aug'06 - 17:24 - 2255 of 2301


Dave ,

I think I will stick with proved and tested PE extrapolation .

JV consequences in 2008 .I willl worry about then .But could be offest by possibly $150m in the bank depending on timing of JV , smeltering plant addition ,gold production , silver production , possible acquistions in China , resource finds ,40% increase in zinc prices etc , tax consequences are pretty low .

Far to many variables to predict more than one year .Which means PE is more suitable basis .


£2 two year target .

Thanks .Alot easier .

Hectorp - 25 Aug'06 - 18:59 - 2256 of 2301


I have to say both chip and dave provided the most erudite and logical posts on Griffin's material dynamics I've seen and in two adjacent posts! Apply them to any oil or mineral company . No wonder this is such a significant and important thread on ADVFN. I must add I could not have done what either of you have, not to the degree you did. NO reply neccessary to this one.
PS been buying the minnow THOR worth a look based on the excellent ss smythe's involvement and my interest in the peripheral metals.

[banj] 01/7/2003 22:38

Project Telecom ticked 1p higher to 44p amid rumours of a
70p-a-share bid. According to yesterday's gossip, the mobile phone giant Vodafone is among those interested in the telecom services group.



get in quick - take a look at the trades these past 4 / 5 days

[blondviking] 14/6/2003 16:05

Agree that they looked like a sell, but with that quantity there would be a home for them and someone has bought them. Would not surprise me to see one of the major shareholders has topped up. It would give us all some confidence.