Primary Health Properties Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 20/1/2008 17:51

Hmm - not sure that I agree. Think it's a very healthy correction. If I was in the job, I wouldn't be cutting rates either as inflation (measured by RPI) is over 4%. People are getting burnt from having too much debt.

[topvest] 20/1/2008 14:35

NTV - Always best to buy low and sell high, not the other way around!! This may go lower short term, but absolutely convinced they will be higher than this a few years out. Bought a few more last week.

[ntv] 17/1/2008 22:33

sold mine today at 07

[sandbank] 16/1/2008 13:34

NICKCDUK: Shrewd move. I'm now waiting to see where and what your next call will be

[nickcduk] 16/1/2008 13:06

Love it when a plan comes together. Started to unload my holding at 289.75p. Property is very strong today but I don't think it has too much legs left. Will be happy enough to just trim and add.

[nickcduk] 16/1/2008 10:33

Time to pile in again now. Large seller has been round last couple of sessions. Likely due to redemptions at various property trusts. Once cleared I can see it bouncing back towards 280-290p over the coming weeks. Wouldn't shoot entire load at current levels as there could be further spikes lower. On the flipside buyer in 10k lots at 260p and 265p is sandwiching my attempts to pick more up.

[bisiboy] 12/1/2008 16:38

you are a shrewd player mr nickcduk
take advantage while you can.
i have been doing the same but without the shorting bit!

[nickcduk] 10/1/2008 20:40

Changing my tack again after I closed my shorts this week. Looking to pick up stock around current levels and leaving plenty of room to pick up more on any spikes lower. Don't imagine a trend is going to develop anytime soon so its best just to take 10% here and there.

[ntv] 10/1/2008 16:52

think my recent purchases were a tadge on the early side again

[topvest] 03/1/2008 22:20

Looks like the chart has flattened to me.

[nickcduk] 02/1/2008 13:53

More inclined to sell rather than buy PHP around current levels. Am currently short having sold a few as it was manipulated upwards on Monday. Looking for closer to 300p before closing out. PHP yield is considerably lower than the sector and the discount to NAV the same. It is best just to trade the stock at present rather than wait for longer term gains.

[parvez] 02/1/2008 13:44

Just picked up for the first time as I think this is a great opportunity having read the postings over last 4 weeks.

[v01101999] 31/12/2007 17:14

nice move. I am never able to catch a share at its "down most bottom" but since I was picking up modest amount on each dip I am quite happy with the upturn.

[topvest] 31/12/2007 13:54

No, I missed the top-up opportunity. Never mind, got lots anyway and happy to say the downtrend having been broken.

[sandbank] 31/12/2007 13:02

Nice to see the solid base and the climb here - hope you hopped aboard in time TOPVEST

[topvest] 11/12/2007 08:00

I'm hoping we will get a levelling of the price around £3. 5% yield that is growing and a hefty discount to NAV is still not a bad proposition! Missed the entry point at £2.60 or so, but still interested if it levels lower down.

[nickcduk] 10/12/2007 23:03

PHP has had a nice run over the last few sessions. Ive exited all my long positions and will look to pick up a few again on any spikes lower. A bit surprised it has bounced as hard as it has along with the sector but don't think there is too much upside left from here. NAV around 400p and the yield is back around 4.7%. Much better returns on offer sticking it in a savings account for a couple of years.

[topvest] 10/12/2007 22:00

Looks like the price may be starting to level off. Early days, but it's starting to look that way.

[nickcduk] 10/12/2007 10:34

News from MedicX this morning about falling values. They said yields had moved out about 25bp for the sector. That equates to about a 5% fall in values. That would take about 40p off NAV for PHP. Values are still falling sharply this quarter so it could go down a fair bit more yet.

[rivaldo] 05/12/2007 16:03

Don't know if you lot saw this recent note from Hardman dated 15th November (not posted here before anyway):



Conclusion:
"At 292.5p per share PHP shares are trading at a 35% discount to projected NAV and, in addition, providing investors with an attractive yield of 5.1%. With income effectively backed by the Government we view PHP as one of the 'safer' property plays."

Period Income Declared Adjusted Adjusted P/e Divi Yield NAV Premium/
Ended £m Profit £m Profit £m Eps p. ratio p. % p Discount
6/006A 11.1 18.4 3.9 16.5 17.7 13.5 4.6 421 31%dis
6/2007A 14.1 14.3 4.0 15.5 18.9 15.0 5.1 450 35%dis
12/2007E* 22.0 18.9 5.9 21.2 23.0 450 35%dis
2008E 18.0 5.1 5.1 15.1 19.4 16.5 5.6 450 35%dis

[topvest] 04/12/2007 21:14

NAV may fall a tad, but underlying EPS and DPS will probably increase. Yield is over 6%. I'm getting close to my target price of £2.50 - at that point it's a no brainer - project forward 2/3 years and a 20p dividend. Starts looking very silly!
IFRS doesn't help property companies as headlien EPS will be negative which is rubbish and misleading. Underlying profit excluding capital gains and revaluation losses is what is important!

[jamesiecakes] 29/11/2007 20:57

Dipped my toes into php today, hoping the price will continue to fall as I would like to build a nice little stake here as I think its an excellent company and a safe long term punt

[nickcduk] 28/11/2007 10:23

The dip in profits is down to the revaluation gains they booked on their properties. The rise this year was a low lower than last years gains and hence profits were lower. Underlying EPS and the dividend were in line.

As with most property stocks at present PHP is likely to report a loss due to falling property values. It will probably continue to report losses for next year as well. Its difficult to pluck up the courage to buy when you know NAV will continue to fall. On the other hand everything has its price. PHP is currently being valued on the basis that its properties will fall 20% in value. Thats a decent enough margin of safety to consider starting to build a stake here.

[pallett] 28/11/2007 09:55

I understand that, it is the apparent dip in profit I was looking at. I agree that their tenants have got to be the most secure that you can get and eventually the yield will once again become attractive. I am always looking for secure dividends for income but not with a loss of capitol.