Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Premier Oil LSE:PMO London Ordinary Share GB00B43G0577 ORD 12.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.15p -0.17% 90.75p 91.15p 91.40p 93.70p 88.75p 89.85p 19,911,388 16:35:04
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 796.4 -316.3 19.4 5.2 479.13

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Date Time Title Posts
19/1/201821:03Premier - Charts and All34,950
21/11/201710:35Premier Oil100
20/12/201607:53L2 - Observations, comments and screenshots50
16/5/201614:06PREMIER OIL BOILING UP1,163
01/1/201604:40Premier Oil 2016 - Analysts Thread2

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Premier Oil (PMO) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2018-01-19 17:01:4191.1046,00041,904.67O
2018-01-19 16:51:4990.72819,998743,922.44O
2018-01-19 16:51:0891.25103,79394,707.67O
2018-01-19 16:51:0691.2910,5009,585.70O
2018-01-19 16:51:0291.151,000,000911,500.00O
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Premier Oil (PMO) Top Chat Posts

Premier Oil Daily Update: Premier Oil is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PMO. The last closing price for Premier Oil was 90.90p.
Premier Oil has a 4 week average price of 75.75p and a 12 week average price of 62.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 104p while the 1 year low share price is currently 42.75p.
There are currently 527,972,426 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 17,010,945 shares. The market capitalisation of Premier Oil is £479,134,976.60.
rationaleee: A lot of PIs who sold out are sitting on the sidelines, desperate to jump back in and get in at a lower price, just for a reward of a few extra shares. They have watched PMO share price manipulated time and time again over the past 1-2 years and roughly know how the manipulation works. What they seem to be forgetting is that this will be the last time we will all be witnessing the dreaded manipulation that we all have come to love/loathe. There won't be anymore manipulation/suppression that we have seen time and time again, once this showdown finishes. So good luck to those PIs who'd be staring at the share price 8am-4.30pm over the next few days trying to time it. With every passing day the oil price rising and Catcher moving closer to plateau, this would be fun to watch irrespective of the share price move, esp. for the HF guys who have all along shorted it and have just flipped on to the other side. Market has demonstrated time and time again, majority of those PIs waiting on the sidelines, would be left on the sidelines waiting for their entry price, which would never come as any price they would get would still not be low enough. Just like KAZ at £1.80s, GLEN at £0.80s, FXPO at £0.30s, AAL at £4s, where we had a lot of PIs complaining that the price was not low enough to buy in as compared to where it was few weeks/months ago in Q1 2016. History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhymes. Btw KAZ had a net debt equivalent to PMO ($2.8bn) when it was in £1.50s or priced in c.£500mn market cap in 2016, and currently its net debt is still not significantly different from that of PMOs even with the FCF, although its market cap is around £4bn. Just some food for thought around leveraged cos. in commodoties space.
eastender boy: this seems to cover it in a nutshell.. Prior to PMO managements latest offer to the CBHs, I was of the opinion that as the two major factors driving the share price (ie PoO and Catcher Production) were positive, the share price would rise to around 104p (which it has) and CBHs would be slowly flushed out and they would convert to shares. As the shares were sold in the market the price would tend downwards (very slightly) but would come back up again as the underlying was inevitably upwards. This was going to continue until late July when TD would buy the remaining CBHs out at 104p. In essence, this would be a slow burning rights issue. As onedb1 has said, the CBHs are not natural share holders; they want income. They are natural sellers of shares. However what has happened is that both drivers of the share price are on a roll (big ones at that) and we have reached the 104p more quickly than was anticipated. The CBHs consequently can get their 104p in the market and dont have to wait for TD to dip into his pocket In late July. The scene was therefore set for a mass uncontrolled early conversion. The slow burn rights issue was going to turn into a bun fight. TD therefore has come up with his offer which is giving the CBHs share instead of them having to wait for their 2.5% income. My guess and it is only that, is that PMO will find buyers for the shares and bingo the rights issue is complete. I would have expected to see some sort of constraint applied to the CBHs to stop them all selling their new shares in an uncontrolled fashion, but it wasnt there which is why I'm guessing PMO will handle it. Once the'rights issue' is out the way we are on a steady climb. £3/sh when the EDIDAX is back to 3. £5/sh when Tolmount comes on line. I can even dream up bigger numbers. My 2 positive takes from the trading statement. Each Catcher well tested to 20TBD (very nice wells) Chim Sao infill wells producing at 6TBD (infilling vessel capacity very nicely) Good stuff TD and Team from gibman11 on iii
rationaleee: IMO the way to look at this whole conversion induced dilution is by comparing the fully diluted market cap of Pmo with the closest peer we have, and assume the market values a mid-cap oil company fairly given where oil prices are. Its important to compare with a peer stock which does not have distorted trading going on in the background as PMO does. This will give us an understanding of how the market is valuing a peer at the current oil prices of c.$70 and how it would value PMO when all the shorting HFs have left and the total shares in issue are c.800mn. The closest peer that comes to mind is ENQ, not TLW obviously because of the quality of their reserves/assets and margins. PMO and ENQ both operate primarily in the UK so lets assume similar opex, margins, country risk, etc. Production assumed at 85kbd vs 65kbd, which could be evened out by debt of $2.7bn vs $2bn for PMO & ENQ respectively. So given the current market sentiment and oil price of $70, ENQ is being valued at £470mn for its c.60-65kbd production, $2bn debt and any Kraken specific risks. While PMO is being valued at £501mn @ 525mn shares with the news of conversion out in the market, and if we assume market values a company fairly, the diluted market cap PMO currently has is £760mn @ an assumed c.800mn shares in issue. So at oil prices of $70 the current market value difference between PMO and ENQ is £760mn-£470mn = £290mn as of today. So for PMO we can assume the additional £290mn attributed to our marketcap post dilution is essentailly valuing the difference between PMO and ENQ, such as higher production of 20kbd, $465mn of additional debt (post conversion and removing $235mn debt), Zama, Tolmount, Sea Lion, Tuna, etc. So I think if PMO share price goes down from the current level of say 95p, this premium of £290mn in our market cap over ENQ, that values everything PMO has that ENQ doesn't, should go down in tandem with oil prices. But if oil prices stay where they are or go up and ENQ valuation goes up with it, the valuation gap between PMO and ENQ will increase a lot more if PMO share price stays flat or goes down due to this dilution priced-in/ not-priced in confusion. i.e PMO gets more undervalued for what it has due to this CB conversion confusion. This presents a buying opportunity to anyone who does not want to second guess the market. If you think PMO share price will go down even if oil price stays flat or goes up, IMO that will be a brilliant buying opportunity and I would definitely be buying in more, as PMO will be falling behind ENQs fair valuation proxy as described above. Or we could sell right now and book profits in the hope of buying in cheaper(+ stamp duty payment again grr!) which may or may not happen depending on oil prices. IMO buying back cheaper is more risky right now as you'd have the dillemma of knowing when to buy in as it could keep falling or if you don't buy, it could start rising, especially when we know how fast PMO rises when the tide turns. Based on a lot of PIs experience PMO can let you sell your stock easily but does not allow you to get back in the stock that easily or cheaply when the tide changes. Honestly, too much hassle for a patient investor but obviously not for traders. For traders anything mentioned above is irrelavant and they will obviously do whats best for the short term, as they are used to second guessing the market and speculating rather than investing. Obviously above mentioned are just my thoughts and could be wrong on the whole thing described above, so DYOR. But I'd be keen to hear what other members on this board think especially Steve, bakedbean, etc. on the above whole dilution aspect? Thanks
steve73: prewar, The way I understand the CBH shorting is as follows: The CBH takes a short for every potential share he can convert to. If the share price rises the short looses value, but the bond (once converted to a share) gains by the same amount... So he's NET even. He must pay to borrow the stock, but this is probably offset by the interest he gets (enhanced if he's getting cheap stock rather than cash). If the share price drops below CP, the short gains value whilst the bond value is retained at it's maturity value. So potentially he makes a profit. Clearly with the share price rising there is now little benefit in holding a balancing short, but if it's not actually costing him anything then why not keep holding? If the CBH is NOT shorting, then as the share price rises, the CB's potential value when converted is rising. But in the meantime it's earning a little interest, so there's little incentive to convert early UNLESS the cash is required elsewhere. So with a rising share price there is still little benefit in converting and selling unless the holders have other (better) investment opportunities. In both cases there's an incentive to keep holding on the off-chance that the oil price crashes (or some other negative event occurs), another refinancing becomes necessary, and perhaps the CBHs can renegotiate an even lower conversion price. It certainly worked well for them last time in renegotiating from $7 to $0.9174 so allowing them to accumulate more than 7x as much equity. IMO, the possibility that we'll fail our covenant tests and need yet another refinancing are rapidly diminishing, but of course there's always the chance of a black swan.. On balance, it's probably better to remain unconverted, so Tony has dangled a carrot to try to persuade them to convert early. FWIW, similar logic applies for the warrants. Better to leave them unexercised until the latest possible date. Each one is effectively valued at one share but available at a discount.. Why spend the cash to convert now when you can get the same benefit at the same cost by converting later. Of course, if the share price looks like it'll drop for a sustained period then we may see a lot more conversions according. At least this is how I see the situation... NAI, DYOR etc.
begorrah88: prewar How sweet that you've been waiting by your monitor for me to post - very flattering ....and yet another question. You are hungry for knowledge aren't you. Depends how you define the underlying value of the business - if by that you mean ignoring the share price [which I would certainly say is a major factor in the valuation of any business] then no and you can happily go on your way thinking your investment is rising. If, however, you measure the value of your investment by what your shares could be sold for, then obviously a massive yes as the shorting of the stock is acting like a huge anchor on the share price and even sending the share price down in a period of rising oil [curious for those that refuse to acknowledge the increasing shorts that are factually declared and believe that PMO is a POO tracker, they must have been scratching their heads over the last couple of days]
marvin9: Your missing the point for your own agenda! The only reason the share price is hanging onto very small gains is due to the lucky oil price hike. If the oil price had fallen your charts would mean nothing and the share price would have crashed below your farts support level; that's a fact! Your statement that the share price trend is up, is truly misleading; it all depends on the oil price and nothing to do with the performance of PMO, due to corrupt manipulation of the share price , historically. If oil dropped $3-$4 then PMO would struggle to hold onto 65p TLW £2.05 PMO 78P LOL GET REAL! The share price should be at least £1.30 now!
marvin9: AI, as said, your trading range is all fine unless the oil price falls or Catcher fails to come on stream. then we will be back in the 40p region in a flash. Amazing how the oil price keeps rising and the PMO share price stands still, utter manipulated corruption with the backing of puppet Durrant. Sack the clueless fat lazy fool now and employ a carrot!
begorrah88: Guess what? More of the same yet again Brent well over $63 but once again the small AT sells come out to wipe 1.5p off the PMO share price. Nothing from the CEO though - no surprise, no concern just perhaps a little chuckle to himself as he laughs at his shareholders.
marvin9: My oh my. Quote: You rampers constantly moan about how PMO and its assets are just as good as TLW. You rampers constantly moan as to why are the share prices so far apart. Reason being: TLW has a godly like CEO who the market respects and who is not a clueless puppet PMO has a Puppet book keeper who is only good at working out his next comical pay rise. Book keeping.. then yes PMO has the edge. As for CEO ... WELLLLLLLLLLLLL WOWWWWWWWWWWWW WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW! TLW WINS HANDS DOWN; HENCE THE MEGA SHARE PRICE DIFFEENECE OVER PMO. END OF THE DAY, WE AT PMO HAVE A LAZY FAT NACKER OF A PUPPET BOOK KEEPER! TLW HAS A REALLY CLEVER OIL SAVY, WELL RESPECTED GUY IN CHARGE AND HOORAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYY FOR HIM!
begorrah88: john09 As badger has put a link to, PMO, as part of the refinancing package, entered a deal with the convertible bond holders whereby the bonds [$245million] have a conversion price of 74.4p and the company can buy them out if the share price reaches £1.04. Now, you wouldn't expect the CBH's to convert as they are getting fair interest but if they do then the company will have to find money from somewhere to buy them out either at the BH's choice or PMO's if the share price gets there. TD sort of hopes they won't convert, or if they do, there would be cash flow to assist and not raise capital but, as we've learned with the 'technical trading' at present, hedge funds may see a gain in converting and then funds are needed. Part of the current high short position is perceived to be CBH arbitrage where the hedge funds short PMO shares to neutralise any fall in the return on the bonds. hxxp:// The above link gives a summary In addition PMO may have to raise funds to meet the liabilities of the warrants were they to be exercised. As I say, many, many variables and TD has said he expects no more than a 5% dilution as a result of the refinancing but that may be a very rose tinted view of it as hedge funds can, and will, exploit any gain they can and they certainly have PMO share price completely under control. Good luck trying to get your head around all that.
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