Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 25/1/2018 06:51

Important that people on this site know that you spend all day every day moaning about every AT sell and manipulation even when you are long....but they probably worked that out already.

[leoneobull] 25/1/2018 06:39

As for twisting Steve's post, how is pointing out that dollar weakness is good for poo but bad for UK oilers' revenue twisting anything. ?

[leoneobull] 25/1/2018 06:36

Morning begsy. two posts are about poo's sustainability. This would affect tullow just as much as pmo. Naughty little ramper is an affectionate term of endearment used by the infamous Andy Prattle.As for deramping some realism about the downside is rather sensible. You tend to be negative even when you are long so thought you'd appreciate a realistic assessment

[begorrah88] 25/1/2018 05:50

Leo/paulBiya/Bransonbull

Noticed your 4 posts in a row on the other site deramping [even quoting Steve73's post above and twisting it into a negative].

You are even calling onedb1 a 'naughty little ramper' [Now there's a pot calling a kettle!] for his very well reasoned [as he always does] post on triple i.

Important that people on this site know that you are just as transparent and flaky when you are ramping [when you were holding last year] as when you are deramping [now since you've sold].

[steve73] 25/1/2018 03:06

Good discussion yesterday.. good to see opposing views aired without any mudslinging.

FWIW, I've been tracking shorts/SoL for over 2 years. In late '15 SoL was over 8%.. I would assume these were expecting the Co. to fail completely. During H1 '16 following the EoN deal, it was around 4-6%, and then increased steadily through H2 to over 16% as the complexity in refinancing became more apparent. The really big rise to 28% was in March, as the CB's were re-priced... The VWAP period.

With large numbers of SoL now expected to be returned as converted bonds, I'm expecting SoL to settle out at something less than 5-6% (also allowing for the increased shareholding), although this may not become apparent in the Jan figures since they are monthly averages. These will be the die-hards expecting oil demand to wither in the face of renewables & electric cars. Still 20-30 years too soon for this IMO, but of course, there's always the slim chance of a Macondo type disaster for all oil companies.

The DB holdings notice yesterday was almost a duplicate of the previous days, with just the total shareholding changed. I see ADVFN (and some other sites) still haven't updated their data yet.

The strong oil price over the last few weeks is almost certainly related to the weakening US $, so it benefits us little, in terms of GBP share-price. It does reduce the Conversion Price (to 65.5P), and also the Forced CP (now 91.7p) so unless there's a major upset in the next 6 months, the rest of the CB's will probably be forced to convert - without the enhancements. A bit of me feels that we gave away far too much with this recent early conversion offer, although perhaps it will now be the remaining CBHs who will be keeping up the short pressure in the hope of avoiding a forced conversion, and being offered even better enhanced terms. Time will out..!

[prewar] 24/1/2018 21:34

Be better if $ strengthened a bit too.

[eastender boy] 24/1/2018 21:28

Brent hunting for $71. looking good again for tomorrow.
steady as she goes.

[marvin9] 24/1/2018 21:18

66.02
▲
+1.55
+2.40%

[prewar] 24/1/2018 19:35

BB thanks again for replying, so re #35099, I'm long PMO so should I think the shorters are the bad guys?

I kind of think of them as neutral, they're taking a punt on the share price going down (or hedging a position from elsewhere), in the same way as I'm taking a punt on the share price going up. One of us will be right, one of us will be wrong.

I could have gone long having bought my share off another holder who went long but exited at a price point they were happy with, I could have bought off someone going short. You could argue that shorters are providing additional liquidity to the market so a good thing?

Now if shorters were always right then that'd be different but they're not always right are they. In fact the volume of shorts from re-fi to just prior to CBH conversion went up at the same time as the share price went up.

So over that period shorters in total made losses on any PMO trade. You said previously that the manipulation has been happening both pre and post re-fi finalisation.

So in my mind I've grouped the shorters (boo, hiss) past and present into four categories as of now:

1. Taking a pure punt on PMO SP, no interest in CB's, still short
2. Had CB's, converted as part of process and fully traded out, not short
3. Had CB's, converted as part of process but not fully traded out, could be net short or long
4. Interest in CB's but not part of conversion process, to hedge against value from eventual conversion, they're still short.

So which of these are the manipulators (if any) as of now and what's their logic for presumably suppressing the SP?

[marvin9] 24/1/2018 18:09

Oilcan; you never did tell us why you was kicked off the rigs?

[prewar] 24/1/2018 17:52

Rogk are you saying there are counterparties for all these manipulative trades?

Hopefully they're not all under duress to buy or sell at a mutually agreeable price?

[marvin9] 24/1/2018 17:38

Common people give adg some PLUS1 points for his efforts.

[bakedbean57] 24/1/2018 16:45

Not as many people now for them to lend it too...

[begorrah88] 24/1/2018 16:45

Looks like POO was suposed to go down today and that draw has nade somebody angry!

We were due a $1 smashdown so from that $70.5 high earlier.....

[gepetto100] 24/1/2018 16:43

Deutsch Bank has cut its holding by 1/3

[gepetto100] 24/1/2018 16:41

Springboard for tomorrow

[oilretire] 24/1/2018 16:12

Get Marv on the case, he obviously understands the problem explicitly......

[begorrah88] 24/1/2018 16:08

AdgUnfortunately that is exactly the process I was talking about earlier.The people that should be looking into your concerns will just keep coming back to you with queries, question your responses etc and that will drag on until the management of the share price has ended and then they will conclude that there is little point in pursuing anything.Probably best to forward them one point at a time so that they cannot cloud everything.

[bakedbean57] 24/1/2018 15:56

Yer that's just not possible look at LIBOR...

[adg] 24/1/2018 15:53

PMO and the FCA want me to try to explain the concerns regarding the trading anomalies - can anybody précis it in a few paragraphs

Also can anybody explain ho it could still happen with 19 market makers - unless of course they are all colluding which even I think is unlikely

[begorrah88] 24/1/2018 15:24

Chasing towards 92p nowAny gains from the Catcher RNS wiped out in a few AT sells

[american idiot] 24/1/2018 14:19

Agree, hence any small shareprice rise will be sold into - which seems to be happening now. (Those being the large trades that you think are possibly buys whereas I think they are worked sells)

(Example..today a 300k and 400k trade reported at 9:59:26/51am @ 95p. I think those were sells worked through from 8am...The early rise being sold into)

Personally, I'm hoping POO comes off and that it drags PMO's shareprice down to around 78p / 80p.

I'd consider that an excellent entry point (Previous resistance so possibly would act as support)

As always, the best to us all.