Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[marvin9] 03/6/2017 14:30

73% refused to vote and deliver a NO CONFIDNECE VOTE IN TONY DURRANT.. BUT STILL HE KEPT HIS JOB AND GIVEN A COMICAL PAY RISE BACK HANDER AS A SLAP IN THE FACE TO HONEST HARD WORK SHARE HOLDERS!

[sirmark] 02/6/2017 16:50

I think their dragging them all down to fill up before the figures next week prove that the cuts are having an effect and the rebalancing is happening faster than predicted Whilst the drop is annoying, it's temporary and 3 days time oil will be back 52/53 and we'll be back to 60p looking for refinancing to take up back over £1

[nav_mike] 02/6/2017 16:42

Trying to stay positive after a week of unmitigated gloom...

Surely fundmentals must come galloping over the horizon at some point?

We have a market cap of £283m

Last year we made a $122m post tax profit, after taking a $328m impairment hit on Solan (net of the Eon goodwill gain)

This was on turnover of $983m and an effective price received of $37.7

If oil averages just $50 this year and we do 80k per day thats $1.46bn turnover before commercial discounts etc

Surely with all the whizz bang efficiencies and cost savings Durrant keeps telling us, we should greatly improve on last years numbers?

Yes I know its simplistic, but this valuation for a circa 80k per day producer is getting barmy.

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 16:07

personally think this is all about the oil price now, other indebted oilers being similarly affected. With a higher oil price the debt is a manageable problem, below $54 we are going nowhere.

[timothyjones2010] 02/6/2017 15:56

At the end of his article he does say he isn't an oil expert - I'm being super positive here and believe there is some truth in some of what he says and could see poo coming back up. What would be nice though is to see poo low 50's till the end of June, see the refinancing done and the backwardian on poo rise into mid to late 50's - am I being to optimistic though lol

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 15:46

From DelGriffith on lse:


'He says oil futures are on the verge of moving into "backwardation," a term used to describe a market anomaly when futures contracts that expire later are trading at lower prices than contracts that expire sooner.

The last four times oil moved into backwardation, the commodity rallied between 25 percent and 72 percent in the next nine months, according to Lee.

"We're approaching a flip back into backwardation, meaning the spot price is approaching and may soon exceed the 24-month contract. That's normally a market imbalance," said Lee, who is Fundstrat's Head of Research, on Wednesday's "Trading Nation."

[mount teide] 02/6/2017 15:35

Sadly, airborne pollution from giant diesel engines in ships has been linked to sickness - an abnormally high incidence of serious respiratory diseases in coastal residents near busy global shipping lanes. Up to 60,000 premature deaths a year worldwide are said to be as a result of particulate matter emissions from ocean-going ship engines. The IMO, which regulates shipping for 168 member nations, has finally enacted new mandatory standards for phasing in cleaner engine fuel.

By 2020, sulphur in marine fuel must be reduced by 90% although this new distilled fuel is near double the price of current low grade high sulphur fuels and so the extra cost will naturally be passed on to consumers but, at least it should heavily reduce the annual cull of 'blissfully' ignorant coastal residents directly affected from the use of cheap low grade fuels in ship's engines.

[timothyjones2010] 02/6/2017 15:09

PMO is a hard slog, oil is a hard slog.With the financing delay to end of June at best. Futures on oil look like they will keep POO at around $50 pb light at the end of the tunnel is a long way off

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 14:30

Mount, thanks for that, can't understand why sulphur is such a problem as most refineries are fitted with dehydrodesulphurisation plants - maybe the cost of their use is prohibitive for nautical heavy fuels. (metal oxide catalysts on alumina). My understanding was that countries like India and China are moving far more quickly down the green energy route - solar cells in particular. One instance being a solar cell installation in China covering an area the size of Warrington. Interesting take on shipping though wasn't aware of the scale of usage there. Sulphur oxides are extremely water soluble so maybe its considered that they just find their way into the sea (adding to the acidity as they go!).

[mount teide] 02/6/2017 14:15

Widespread use of electric cars and renewable energy in the high population, fast growing economies of China, India and SE Asia is many, many decades away.

Like Britain and most of Europe in the 1950's, China still generates more than 75% of its energy from coal!

Oil and gas use for energy is still in its infancy in these high population, mostly poor Nations - oil and gas use to them for energy generation IS the future - not wind turbines and solar which are 'space age' developments, family generations away.

The shipping industry now accounts for more than 90% of global trade by volume and consumes 85% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production output a day. A single large container ship has the horsepower output of 1,200 family cars and will in a single day use enough fuel to drive an average family saloon for 7 million miles, while pumping out cancer causing pollutants equivalent to 50 million cars.

Shipping is by far the biggest transport polluter in the world. There are around 800 million cars in the world today emitting around 78,000 tons of Sulphur Oxides annually.

The world's 90,000 vessels burn around 370 million tons of fuel annually, emitting 20,000,000 tons of Sulphur Oxides. That equates to 260 times more Sulphur Oxides being emitted by ships than the worlds entire car fleet. One large container ship alone can generate approx 5,200 tonnes of sulphur oxide pollution in a year, meaning that 15 of the largest ships now emit as much as the world's 760 million cars combined.

All the while commodities and consumer goods are shipped around the world in massive ocean going ships at an average 2% long term growth a year and, the relatively poor, high population Nations of the world increasingly move to oil and gas for their energy needs over the decades ahead - demand for oil and gas will remain robust, whatever liberal politicians in the West attempt to do with their ludicrous uncommercial wind farms(the largest in the North Sea has got an average investment break even point of 24 years and, thats assuming the top end of the estimated power generation range is met - to date the lower end is not even being met on most wind farms!) and, ridiculously high priced electric cars, which are likely to pose a serious risk to pedestrian safety in towns and cities since they are almost silent if BMW's electric sports car, which i've driven, is a reliable guide.

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 14:11

It's a date. :-)

[eodfire] 02/6/2017 14:11

Maybe pharmaceuticals are the long term bet?! Everyone being kept alive for longer...

[eodfire] 02/6/2017 14:10

You have made some very fair points fireplace. I just can't see oil going anywhere yet. We shall see! Maybe we can meet on here in 5 years and discuss! Lol

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 14:02

eod, It's alright for some I doubt if I've 15 years left. ;-)

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 14:00

eodfire, Maybe, but next year we're halfway to 2030 (from 2006) and we don't appear to be struggling with the supply chain. It's all conjecture but with techniques of oil recovery improving all the time driving down production costs I think that the days of expensive oil have passed. Producers will make good money at 60 bbl. The ones that wont survive are the ones that have to pay off massive historical debts from rash investment decisions made when the oil price was in seemingly permanent ascendancy.

[eodfire] 02/6/2017 13:48

Unfortunately I'm happy to hold my oil shares for at least the next 15 years.

[eodfire] 02/6/2017 13:47

Agree technology is moving fast (which is great to see) but the need for oil around the world is still massive. If you check out some of the EIA figures and reports oil usage is going only one way for the next 15 or so years. And it's not down. World demand is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030, according to the EIA. They also say that another large factor on petroleum demand has been human population growth, with the worlds population growing faster than oil production. The world's population in 2030 is expected to be double that of 1980.

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 13:25

Maybe eodfire but I think technology is moving fast and oil use may not expand significantly from where we are. We've been talking of increased world usage and lack of investment now for 2 years all getting a bit hackneyed and having little effect on the PoO. Level of investment in other forms of energy is meteoric and cost of recovery of existing oil supplies is being driven down.

[eodfire] 02/6/2017 13:17

Fireplace, before we get a permanent low price of oil due to green energy I think there will definitely be another high price era. Could even be in a few years due to lack of investment in exploration. Glut reduces, then not enough oil... Whether you like it or not oil will remain the big player on the world stage for many years to come imo.

[fireplace22] 02/6/2017 09:55

12 months or so when oil was at its lowest it was always considered that those price levels couldn't be maintained and the reversal was sure to come .ie there was hope. Now it seems with OPEC cutting back and the US reducing oil stock rapidly we are still doggedly at $50. The future holds electric cars and the rapid deployment of green energy systems, is there now any hope left now for a favourable oil price? Abandon hope all ye who enter here!

Next week we'll be back at $55 + and all will be well. :-).

[adh0] 02/6/2017 09:45

Another down leg here, perhaps 50p on the cards.

I know the finances are not simple BUT how and why were they ever set up to be this complicated in the first place. Would you take out a mortgage on your house with this many different lenders, all under different terms, interest rates, penalty clauses, and time frames... Or just borrow what you want from one? Or if you do borrow from several because the amount needed is so large surely offer everyone the same terms!

As a side note, the financial difficulties began with the oil slide whilst we were spending big money developing SOLAN and an oil price briefly below $30. Since that expenditure has stopped, the CATCHER spending is halting not too far off, oil is now $50ish and our production is up... how far off actually not being in breach of the existing covenants are we anyway?

[marvin9] 02/6/2017 06:40

Durrant working out the Finance:

[leoneobull] 02/6/2017 06:26

Mike NAV. We are all frustrated with POO. But reasons why declined are clear.. Amazing api and eia data. but Trump pulling out of climate accord...bad news. It will however take 4 years to withdraw. And Trump threatened this on campaign trail so mkt shouldn't be surprised