Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[hearts1] 11/2/2017 12:36

Forward looking oil price is somewhat blurred, given shale there is no certainty that it will be materially higher.If it wasn't for the OPEC cut Brent would be below $40 and PMO would be in serious trouble.They don't have the cash to develop Sealion and I doubt the banks will sanction it unless Brent over $70.

[theelectrolyte] 11/2/2017 11:53

They (PMO I mean, nor potential partners) don't base investment decisions today based on today's oil price. Else, nothing would be getting sanctioned (see MD2 Bp GoM). So to say "they need POO over $65" gives an overly simplistic view of a practical FID process.

It's based on a aggregate forward looking oil price curve. What will the oil price look like 2020 onwards? PMO's curve is $60 for 2018 and above that for subsequent run (as per R Rose on the recent half yearly). Will certainly need a another partner of course.

PMO are clearly looking for the additional cashflow from Catcher before starting to spend large amounts of Capex (i.e. FIDs in 2017 with spends in 2018/2019/2020).

Sea Lion licence currently runs until 2020.

[marvin9] 11/2/2017 11:49

PMO cannot develop Sea Lion, they could not even get Solan right never mind something as large as that..

SELL SELL SELL ruduce debt or buy something closer to home and get Tony and a few other fraggles to resign, then watch the share price rise well past the mythical £1.40

[deanroberthunt] 11/2/2017 11:42

this year it's Catcher + Infills + EON, next year and 2019 Tolmount.

[deanroberthunt] 11/2/2017 11:35

Boyz...they will develop it, but it's down the pecking order at the moment, they really need POO over $65...plus they need a major farming in to run it.

[theelectrolyte] 11/2/2017 11:31

Why wouldn't PMO want to develop Sea Lion? It's massive.

B/E at $45....Average global B/E on new developments is higher than that already hxxps://www.woodmac.com/analysis/preFID-oil-projects.

There's a multi-billion dollar profit prize at Sea Lion - barring delivery by aliens of an alternative energy source, it'll get developed.

[theelectrolyte] 11/2/2017 11:18

Doesn't know the debt level;
Doesn't know about an extra 25kbbls/d net to Premier via Catcher almost already paid for;
Doesn't know about Tolmount.

Can't say I'm too concerned by a shorter whose basis for shorting seems somewhat unresearched....

[hearts1] 11/2/2017 11:17

Impressive - has to be noted that CNE is a partner in Kracken and Catcher, that will be 350p by year end.I don't think PMO have any desire to develop SeaLion, they just have to talk it up due to the reserves it has.A farm in isn't easy given $45 break even doesn't give much leeway at current oil prices.Hopefully there is a political ' tie up' with YPF.

[deanroberthunt] 11/2/2017 10:54

Armada Kraken being tugged out of Rotterdam after some mods and final commissioning.....heading for Kraken Oil Field..

this will be Catcher later on this year.....

[asa8] 11/2/2017 10:09

Morning guys has there ever been a situation where a company has taken legal action against the fca for not doing there job properly and if yes what was the outcome.

[deanroberthunt] 11/2/2017 09:58

$ not £.....but after Article 50 is invoked it'll be right....when we're 1:1 with $

[manics] 11/2/2017 09:42

Lucien literally says ("for this reason") that the reason he's shorting is because Sea Lion might be too expensive and complicated.

Sadly it's Catcher and a ramping Solan which deliver immediate & mid term growth drivers. Then there's this thing in the industry called a "farm out".

Maybe Lucien will get stopped out maybe he won't but I don't see him closing in glee at -50p.

He's got that debt figure wrong hasn't he dean? -bit like you used to do when you were bashing PMO back in November.

[hearts1] 11/2/2017 09:17

Each to their own , of course if OPEC members fell out and ended deal Brent would take a severe kicking.I think that's really the only driver that could take it there unless Catcher does a Solan. Far more positive drivers short term with 3 potential asset sales.

[patience a virtue] 11/2/2017 09:06

He is more likely to get burnt, I have seen many mistakes shareprophets have made!

[marvin9] 11/2/2017 08:59

This phrase gets me everytime; why do people always quote this but never quote the highs it crashed from???????????????:

'The shares hit just shy of a pound recently, a five bagger from the panic-station 20p low of 2016 and have since retreated to 80p to give a market cap of £400 million.'

Ultra undervalued IMHO

[deanroberthunt] 11/2/2017 08:56

I think it was a surer bet to short stocks highly leveraged to POO, when POO was in a severe bear market, 2014-early 2016....will be more difficult to short the same stocks into a recovering or bull market POO....

but each to their own....50p or sub 50p would be great to pick up a load more stock.

[marvin9] 11/2/2017 08:55

Here we go again, have a dig at Marv.

I can see why some of you are feeling the pain by being outsmarted by the Village Idiot lol.

Some boasted £1.40 within days, I said 75p :)

Not bad for a village idiot ;)

[fireplace22] 11/2/2017 08:23

Quite a big stop loss there - prepared to lose up 20%? Brave man?

[deanroberthunt] 11/2/2017 08:11

got an image of Marv from LinkedIn

[emilio] 11/2/2017 05:00

i don't think ,his village will let him leave!
then they have no village idiot anymore °