Premier African Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[bushranger] 25/9/2017 10:18

I think George knows exactly what he is doing. It is investors that need to open their eyes to all the red flags flying in the wind.

[wallyjumblat] 25/9/2017 09:30

I think George has learnt some valuable lessons recently well I hope he has. The first one is the market never forgets and no matter how good the assets appear the trust and confidence in the BOD is paramount. The second lesson is there needs to be a revenue stream an actual money making venture, and lastly never take your LTH for granted.
IMHO

[billthebank] 24/9/2017 11:01

As I mentioned before I feel George is not as well as he would like and at age 68 I reckon he will be extremely keen to finalise a deal on ZULU in the next 12 months. So first the PEA to formalise our position in ZULU then the ind assessment at RHA to lift the share price to double where we are today then the most important piece of the jigsaw RHA showing consistency of optimum production levels and evidence of positive cashflow. All being well that should lift the share price to 1.5p then watch the fireworks happen!!

[donald tramp] 24/9/2017 09:38

Wally,

That's what I would do if I were Georges age and in his shoes. His chance is coming soon to do "the deal" and I'm sure he won't let it slip by.

Being in business myself "the deal' is the best bit of it all, the rest is just a pre cursor and positioning.

He's just been dealt a Royal Flush after years of trying (Tungsten and Lithium in demand and prices rising), it's time to reap the rewards, but he knows that moment is not open ended.

[wallyjumblat] 24/9/2017 00:59

I agree that RHA production and revenue is key, but once this PEA is concluded then sale or JV of ZULU is possible. George is 68 years old he must now be thinking of his exit strategy, and given the stress he has endured mainly because of RHA then I see an exit sooner than people think. I would sell Zulu in its entirety if possible then buy more Circum.I would also sell RHA once it is producing at full capacity.

OWN LESS LIVE ALOT.

George take note.

[doctor 69] 23/9/2017 11:59

TedobyVery helpfulSo it is criticsl shirt term rha gives prem cash to be in a strong position to negotate a deal The numbers are just too massive , but a lot depends on any jv as this could involve giving away ?80%-90% But if we end up with cash for 90% zulu and a free carry , that would be fine

[andrewsr] 23/9/2017 11:57

Circum pre-tax NPV given as $2.8bn in Prem's latest presentation and a current holding of 5.2%

[tedoby2] 23/9/2017 11:08

Wally if I have it right the conversion from Li2O to LCE is x 2.473.

So 100mt's ore x 1.06% grade x 2.473 conversion would give us 2.62mt's LCE.

The market price of LCE is currently around $15k/t with spot prices as much as $25k/t I believe

So if the above is right then we have an in ground value of 2.62mt's LCE @ say $15k/t = $39bn

If the resource was closer to the 160mt's being implied then we could be looking at more like an in ground value of $75bn if you include the Tantalum as well.

For valuation purposes some people use 2% of the in ground value which is what you're trying to do I guess. It might be better perhaps to use an alternative using Pilbara's mine as a benchmark though. Their mining plan was based upon a production rate 2mt's of ore p.a originally but encouraged by demand no doubt I think that's increased now to 4mt's.

www.pilbaraminerals.com.au/site/content/

At 4mt's p.a. Zulu would have a LOM of 25 to 40 years on the above figures and that should help with any appraisal whatever the method as it has a bearing on the P/E ratio.

Off-take prices were being agreed at around $900/t for spodumene grades of 6% a few months ago but I'm not sure what they are now given the price of Lithium has increased by over 20% since then.

The Tantalum should almost be a free carry and seen as a credit at the smelter. With market prices of roughly $150,000/t and at an average grade of say 300 - 400 ppm at Zulu that's quite a nice bonus to have.

The Metallurgical Recovery rates are good for Lithium at around 90% but not so good for the Tantalum which is more like 60% I believe.

So if Zulu were to process 4mt's of ore p.a. we could be looking at an annual revenue in the order or $500m. AISC's shouldn't be more than $4500/t so perhaps $180m in total. If that's right we're looking at a pre-tax NPV of approximately $320m.

And the last step - if there's 7bn shares in issue that would give Prem an EPS of $0.046 and using a P/E ratio of 10 we get to a share price of $0.46. At today's exchange rate that's just over 35p. Clearly if there's a J.V an adjustment needs to be made.

Interestingly and coincidentally a 12% ownership in Circum at a point in the future when the Danakil mine is operational would give Prem roughly the same share price value. Circum's current pre-tax NPV estimate may easily give it a Market Cap of around $25bn and Prems 12% would therefore equate to around $300m. That stands as a comparison to Zulu's figure of $320m given above and would produce a share price of just under 34p.

I'm not sure if any of my comments help.

AIMHO

GLA

[wallyjumblat] 22/9/2017 22:24

Anybody know what the in ground value of 100mt could be?

[ihavenoclue] 22/9/2017 17:42

dingo ... selling all of Zulu for £75m after proved up 100mt resource ?

[billthebank] 22/9/2017 17:19

Maybe Circum will buy us out? With a load of Circum shares!!!!!

[dingo75] 22/9/2017 17:08

my betting is GR is holding out for proving up Zulu above 100mt and then selling it for something in the order of £75m cash, perhaps keeping 3% free carried to a Chinese outfit who are desperate for supply.

all in all the assets are worth far more than current mk cap.
and GR is not getting any younger so he won't want to muck around with selling his prize asset whilst the market for lithium is strong.

[activeservo] 22/9/2017 16:36

Well i think now we've only got good news to look forward to. It's not like tech shares where you need sell your product and secure orders to grow etc. This is simply finishing off commissioning a plant (This time I believe GR that it'll be done before end of Q4), awaiting some results which are pretty much 90% guaranteed, subsequent asset sale and circum. No brainier this share but it does need patience... (Just hope GR doesn't ruin it with early dilution or more crazy finance.)If this was main market it would now steadily rise into these milestones but knowing AIM, drip drip or flat. Surprise me!

[edgein] 22/9/2017 15:41

Vitec

Oh 100%, its irrelevant, just noise. There's no 3bn share convertible loan now and unless the high grade/practically pure spodumene comes in with low assay results (highly unlikely) then its just a matter of time. On good news these can easily do 1bn volume in a day. Kinda puts 690m shares into perspective.

Regards,
Ed.

[vitec] 22/9/2017 15:33

Its immaterial whether he does or doesn't buy. What is important is that the BOD concentrate time and resources on the world class assets we have and prove to their shareholders that they have the ability to deliver.

[edgein] 22/9/2017 15:19

He's looking in, he used the same tactics on FRR, look at the price of that one now.

Regards,
Ed.

[vitec] 22/9/2017 15:15

Dodge, I would expect if it hits 0.2p that you will be piling in or will you be pointing out to the rest of us the error of our way.

[edgein] 22/9/2017 13:49

Vitec,

Well many are filling their boots right now, not the same opportunity, Darwin produced around 3bn shares. Best you'll get now is a fraction of that from YA and you'll have to line up with the other buyers just below 0.4p. Once the assays come out we'll likely see 1p again, its only a matter of time to our next spike then the eventual Zulu deal possibly early next year. GR did say he was only gonna drill a few months for the expansion of Zulu to get the better deal.

Regards,
Ed.

[dodge city] 22/9/2017 13:43

You might get a 2nd chance.

[vitec] 22/9/2017 13:39

Jung, thanks. I was out of the country then. Didn't realise that they had fallen so low. If I had I would have filled my boots!!

[jungmana] 22/9/2017 13:25

Vitec - was in late January or early February.the spread was 0.15p bid and 0.25p buy but actually bid was 0.16p and some lucky punters were able to buy under 0.20pEdgein - lucky you took some at 0.22p. I saw buys going through under 0.2p on that day but when I tried to buy was offered 0.22p , so I declined it. Only to regret it an hour later.

[vitec] 22/9/2017 12:02

Jung, I stand to be corrected. When did this occur? I was abroad from early January to mid February of this year and did not access any information regarding shares. If it had occurred outside of this period I probably erased the memory due to the shock!

With all of the highs and lows we are not a company that is just hype. We have tangible assets. The trick is for the management to extract value. Most investors agree that the assets are world class. The issue many are having is that the management is mediocre and are having reservations as to their ability to extract the value and turn this into revenue and profits, which in turn means a higher share price

I for one will continue to stay invested but I do have sympathy and empathy with those that are frustrated. The clock is ticking and I have stated that the next 3 to 4 months will be pivotal. I would like to console myself by thinking that once the positive news starts to flow it will be continual. At the back of my mind though is this nagging doubt that as soon as the share price starts to rise George will be off buying more Circum shares. He cannot be so stupid to believe that shareholders will stomach this so I have concluded that maybe consciously or sub consciously letting us know that something may happen with Circum by year end was a purposeful Freudian slip. Maybe just maybe the long awaited liquidity event may actually happen. This would dovetail nicely in with optimal production at RHA and news on Zulu.

[edgein] 22/9/2017 10:56

Jung,

True, I remember buying millions of shares from them below 0.22p, some where lucky enough to get them below 0.2p as you say. But sadly those times are long gone now though, back then we had no real production from RHA and Zulu had next to no holes let alone a maiden resource and we'd only a tiny holding in Circum. What a year its been though, they now think there's two world class lith discoveries at Zulu and RHA is set to reach full capacity and be profitable by year end. So yeah cap is up from under £5m to just over £20m. As GR said though all that's priced in is risk, he doesn't even see RHA in the price here during the recent interview let alone Circum or Zulu. Next 12 months is gonna be transformational for PREM, I still hope that once he completes the infill and extension drilling on Zulu he sells it all for an outrageously large amount of money and uses some of that on Circum shares.

Regards,
Ed.