Polo Res.(See LSE:POL) Share Discussion Threads

[jonnyboy1] 04/3/2010 14:25

i picked up a few hundred thousand at 4.3, i hold GCM but thought a top up here would be worthwhile

[barryrog] 04/3/2010 14:07

its a mystery why it is not moving up now.
GCM absolutely flying,strategic review of Extract Resources could well generate a sale at a significant premium and the NAV is moving towards 2 X the share price.

[someuwin] 04/3/2010 13:01

I think this will be back over 5p soon.

[brian1944] 04/3/2010 12:49

looks like GCM on the march again.

[kerrie3] 04/3/2010 08:28

i just tuned in to 'moneypm' and a late buy of 1.85 mill shares is showing timed at 17.33.

[azalea] 04/3/2010 08:08

RNS 9629V dated 20/7/09 referred to A-CAP Resources'(ASX:ACB)(PRL 19.9%) BFS at its Letihakane uranium project in Botswana scheduled to be completed in Q3 2010. PRL appears to have more fingers in pies than can be kept track of. A-CAP "expects a resource update in Q4 2009. There was an update on the 13/8/09.

[barryrog] 04/3/2010 08:04

All very incestuous - Steve Galloway President of Extract Resources speaking at the 2010 BMO Mining Conference with Peabody and Rio Tinto also presenting.
maybe "off piste" a deal has been struck.

[marben100] 03/3/2010 18:01

Brian, trouble is, those figures are speculative. 500Mlb is pretty much nailed on IMO (vs the 292Mlb current offical estimate).

That makes A$14-16 reasonable at present (considering the time, risks & capital requirements to production, balanced against the possible upside). Something like A$9-10 (being suggested earlier here), would be a very poor deal IMO.

Cheers,

Mark

[marben100] 03/3/2010 17:54

Extract's chairman speaks:

------------------------------------------------

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Demand for uranium will continue to grow "for many years to come" the head of Extract Resources Ltd. (EXT.AU) told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.

"There is pressure on the uranium price but we think the fundamentals are going to drive a very solid demand dynamic," Steve Galloway, chairman of the Australian-based uranium exploration and development company, said.

Uranium is a "solid long term investment", Galloway said, despite spot prices currently being around $40 a pound after rising to over $100/lb in 2007.

"The contract prices are fine and we're not worried about spot prices. We would absolutely negotiate most of our production into long term price contracts," Galloway commented, speaking from the BMO Capital Markets Global Metals & Mining Conference.

Most uranium is supplied under long term contracts and the prices in new contracts often reflects a premium above the spot market.

Extract Resources is focused on Namibia where it owns the Husab Uranium Project, which contains the Rossing South and Ida Dome uranium deposits.

The major shareholder is Kalahari Uranium Ltd. (KAH.LN), while Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP) owns 15.2% and has been touted as a potential acquirer of the group, or as a joint-venture partner at Rossing South.

------------------------------

PS: I think Dow Jones' reporter is clueless about "potential acquirers", though I have little doubt Rio would love to get it, if they could.

[azalea] 03/3/2010 17:49

I think 2010 could prove a defining year for PRL. CDN are looking to produce a "minimum" of 700k ton production so I would expect a recovery there. Given China's insatiable demand for power station coal I would be very surprised if we do not see some action in Mongolia. The potential in GCM is very significant. April should see new coal contracts at notably higher prices and MBO should be reporting back. Oil futures are rising and could go higher as the US driving season kicks in, whilst any signs of an increase in global demand will underline the positives for overall energy prices going forward. The BIG wildcard on oil prices is Iran's response to tougher US/EU/Russian sanctions(Mar/Apr) and ultimately the potential for U.S, military strikes on the enrichment sites 2010/2011.

[brian1944] 03/3/2010 15:55

marben extract zone 1 /2 550milb zone 3/4/ 5 ?????

[marben100] 03/3/2010 15:43

Disagree that Leslie's appointment has anything to do with Rio. It is a long time since he was on RIO's Board. His credentials simply make him a superb candidate for the role. I'm delighted to see him appointed and would expect him to act in the best interests of ALL shareholders.

Brian1944 - I think that figure is optimistic but far from impossible. A crucial factor will be where the U price is in 3-4 years time. I DO think that Extract's Rossing South may have the potential be the world's largest U mine, bar none. Like you, that's why I'd be surprised if Polo considered an exit at anything like the current share price. Somewhere around double the current SP, representing an Extract market cap of around US$3bn (i.e. valuing their minimum 500Mlb of U3O8 @ $6/lb) and a Polo per share value of 8.7p (undiluted) might be tempting, however.

Cheers,

Mark

[steeplejack] 03/3/2010 15:25

The business model hasn't worked if you consider the share price performance but ultimately the value of the assets will win out.Without being boring if you look at Anglo Pacific (APF),you will appreciate a highly successful model built around royalty income, generating substantial cash flow,providing monies for solid growth.You don't have that model here,all you have is strategic stakes.

[barryrog] 03/3/2010 15:12

Katy,
you are not alone, 'azalea',myself and several others said exactly that when Leslie was appointed.

[sitiain] 03/3/2010 14:29

marben im not sure you are right to be honest .
the company will need huge capital injections from both debt and equity to develope the mine.
i cannot see the likes of KAH and PRL being capable of helping with this and i am sure neither of the above parties wants rio to take a bigger stake.
therefore the favourite i would think is a slug of debt and equity from
someone like the koreans for a guarenteed off take of a percentage of future production.
this is what i would do if i were building a load of nuclear power stations coming on line about when EXT should start producing yellow cake.
its all about the deal, and weather it reprices the shares at a new level.
being a EXT FAN, GCM FAN, not so keen on CDN unless they really can do 700,000 tones next year on a coking coal price of 175 dollars.so far they have failed miserably.
i would not be too keen on POLO selling their stake too early.
mind you dattels of course is no fool,
BUT
even he can not defend this companies share price in that as a business model ..
i.e holding the different assetts has not worked and some how he has to realise some value.
weather larger share holder will force his hand i am not sure.
i would be happy to wait but then again i did not buy all my shares at 14 pence in the last raising like a lot did.
interesting times...

[katylied] 03/3/2010 14:10

Thanks marben100, I hadn'd seen that one, will try to track it down. I note the date though (4/1/2010), is well before the appointment of the new CEO, ex-Rio director Johnathan Leslie. I doubt I am alone in seeing that as a major hint that Rio may have more than purely altruistic intentions towards EXT going forward...

[brian1944] 03/3/2010 14:07

my gut feeling on extract as a mine is worth 10billion+ and prl holding 9% is worth 900mill

[barryrog] 03/3/2010 14:01

at last a few people are waking up to the fact that the value of Polo's holding in Extract is already above their total market capitalisation, even at today's share price.
given that, if it is sold, it would almost certainly be at a decent premium, then picking them up at 4.4p is clearly a steal.

[marben100] 03/3/2010 13:31

Katy, the note I was referring to was from WH Ireland relating to Extract, dated 4th January 2010. It includes this paragraph:

"The recent weakness in share price is partially the result of a sloppy and ill thought-out announcement (17/11/09) by EXT "seeking proposals for potential partnerships". The market interpreted this announcement that the company was willing to joint-venture (as opposed to off-take agreements) the Rossing South deposit to a third party, which if proved to be true, would dramatically impact the company's NPV negatively. Re-iterating what we have said previously, a toll-treatment or joint venture option would mean that profits would be shared on some proscriptive joint basis. This outcome would be an unsatisfactory outcome for all parties, especially to the management of Kalahari Minerals and Polo Resources."

[azalea] 03/3/2010 13:16

FWIW
Whatever the pros and cons for GCM and its proposed Phulbari coal project, the value of PRL stake is rising very nicely without it having to move another muscle. Which is making me wonder whether it is today's buyers in PRL or GCM rising sp, that is the cause of PRL ticking up today. A pleasant choice to ponder.

[lizzy15] 03/3/2010 12:29

Hi folks, watching gcm and polo moving in tandem, and didnt polo make an offer for gcm?? wots your thoughts?

[2viewer] 03/3/2010 12:09

fair comment azalea - June 09 is when i bought in and I have been and will continue to be patient

cheers

[azalea] 03/3/2010 12:05

2viewer
Given that PRL is spending good money in a no doubt sizeable fee to MBO, I really do not think either have embarked on a mere fishing expedition. Only newbies need to be reminded that in June 09, directors purchased millions in a 'placing' @ 3.85p in and on the 29/10/09 4 directors collectively bought 9.42m @ 5p. My records show that in June 08, PRL 'placed' 620m @ 13p.

[5dally] 03/3/2010 12:04

Looks like we are on the move

[sitiain] 03/3/2010 12:00

i would be dissappointed if they sell EXT especially if its to bail out bloody caledon.ext got to 11 dollars recently (prl went to 5.5)
BUT
surely this lisence is worth a decent lump with all the nuclear power stations being built.
i guess its more their frustration with the value and discount to NAV that may force their hand.
i must admit i will reduce my stake if they do considerably.