Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[gspanner] 13/7/2017 09:00

I suspect the interim resits will move (or not) things on. Lets hope the model of Portsmouth demonstrates this is a cash cow despite the train payments.

[love it] 13/7/2017 08:24

PR machine on twitter in full swing, lots of posts.

PlutusPowerGen‏; @PlutusPowerGen 1h1 hour ago
More
National Grid control room now finds summer to be more worrisome than January nights. Plutus Powergen #ppg can help!

[1savvyinvestor] 13/7/2017 08:03

https://www.2degreesnetwork.com/groups/2degrees-community/resources/10-myths-about-demand-side-response/Very interesting read

[ibug] 12/7/2017 18:21

The Crumlin site is heading rapidly to being ready to use; most likely next week or so once the concreate has dried. It looks incredible and it was impressive how quickly they have progressed.

[codydotcom] 12/7/2017 17:52

ok, cool. I may not respond for a week or so, but i look forward to an interesting debate

[1savvyinvestor] 12/7/2017 17:26

We can research this more! I'm pretty sure I read a long report into why demand side was being rejected by most companies. Will research later or tomorrow

[codydotcom] 12/7/2017 16:35

Thanks for the response Savvy. To be clear, I wasn't saying that demand reduction from industry has been successful.

My point was that there is significant interest in true demand response, and if just some of it comes to fruition, it could present a real risk to PPG business case.

From your link:
"According to our current survey ... two thirds (65%) do not provide DSR"
"Three quarters (74%) of those respondents say they would be interested in earning money from DSR"

And that's just from those companies interested enough to respond to such a survey. Smart homes, smart cities, etc could take over the short term response market, easily. It won't happen tomorrow though, that's for sure

[1savvyinvestor] 12/7/2017 16:13

hxxp://theenergyst.com/20-firms-outline-what-is-stopping-them-providing-demand-side-response/

if hxxp appears replace with http

[1savvyinvestor] 12/7/2017 16:09

Cody. I accept your attempt at analysis but I don't believe you are correct regarding demand reduction from industry which has been spectacularly unsuccessful leaving a large generating deficit. I will put some figures on this later when I have time. Suffice to say from my point of view this remains an integral part of essential supply to the UK grid. And absolutely no value has been applied to the prospective gas sites; understandably given they haven't been announced yet and so can't be guaranteed.

[love it] 12/7/2017 15:41

Joined twitter, lots of daily updates on different sites from PPG.

[love it] 12/7/2017 15:27

375,000 was mine.

I believe

[codydotcom] 12/7/2017 15:23

I guess a few of you may view me as a de-ramper. Genuinely, I'm not. I've just learned over time that the best initial view of any potential investment is as a sceptic. Let the facts prove my scepticism to be wrong before deciding whether an investment is worthwhile.

Now that the dark cloud of CMP264/265 (the Triad benefit) has dropped its load, washing away some of the upside, the clouds may now part and provide clear skies for PPG to grow. So I’m trying to assess whether this is a good price and time to build a position.

There are some clear positives, eg:
• Power generation in the UK is fragmenting and distributing at a significant rate. The fact that PPG are active in this market gives them a reasonable chance of succeeding. I don’t believe even for a minute that they are market leaders, but that shouldn’t preclude them from being successful. There are plenty of opportunities to go around.

But I still have some concerns:
• Its unclear to me how long this form of power generation will be in the sweet-spot that it currently is. There is an advantage right now due to agility – speed of response and relative size and price. But there are significant projects ongoing to develop true demand response (so rather than starting up a generation unit to meet demand, we flex the demand to match supply). The potential of that market is huge, and it is likely that demand reduction would be more attractive price-wise than increased generation, which will impact on market share. The Plutus assets are likely to have something like a 1% load factor (i.e. operate for 1% of the year), so there’s not a lot of fat to play with. The bio-diesel sites which are currently in construction are less efficient than gas, so these will be hit hardest when the squeeze does come.
• I know it’s been discussed (plenty) but they do not yet have sufficient funding to operate the new sites. As I’ve said before, I don’t doubt that they will get it, but I do think it will be at higher interest rates than the Plymouth agreement from October last year.
• I’ve not seen any confirmation that they met the financial milestone for the Selby site which was successful in the 2015 T-4 CM auction. This was due by 22nd June, and I would presume that if it wasn’t met they would have to RNS. But still, I’d like to see confirmation. I note that another site which was successful in 2014 has recently terminated its agreement. E Power Solutions Ltd had a 2.7MW CHP, which will no longer happen. That’s now 4 sites, totalling 1678MW that have terminated their 2014 (15 year) contracts in the past 12 months. Perception in the industry is that there will be more sites (but less capacity) back out of their 2015 contracts. None have yet been announced, but I’m watching closely.


So I’m trying to get my head around how much the company is currently worth, how that may change in the coming months / years, and the risks associated with that projected value.

Knocking up a quick DCF for the Plymouth site (using ballpark assumptions around Triad revenue (full), STOR, PPA, CM, FFR, business admin costs etc which I can tidy up over time) gets me to an NPV of approx. £8m to PPG, which is 1.2p/share. So this suggests a 100%+ premium was in force over the winter, for all of the additional sites, which seems reasonable.

With the reduction of Triad, the NPV reduces to £6.4m, or 0.9p/share. So the premium in force right now is only 50%. That seems to reflect the lower sentiment because of legislative risk, and possibly delivery risk. It does suggest that the shares are better value now, without the Triad revenue, than they were over last winter, with the Triad revenue.


I’m not confident enough in my numbers to invest on the back of this, and will work to improve those assumptions when I get back from holiday. But I thought it might be interesting to share.

[montynj] 11/7/2017 14:16

Once they start marketing to institutional investors then the share price will take off. My understanding is they haven't started yet as they have something brewing (potentially major for us all) and hence they need all to be in place (dot the i 's and cross the t's) before they can go public and commence the approach to the institutions. I wish I knew what it was...I'm excited...be patient and accumulate

[bishopawn] 11/7/2017 14:07

Remember the Listed Bond that was going to be a major milestone? What happened to that?

High expectations there were in plenty, and things have taken much longer than hoped.
Now just maybe things have gotten much bigger along the way and the Listed Bond is now an irrelevance. But Joe Public still needs convincing, and when all is said and done, we currently only have ONE site - Plymouth - constructed and commissioned in 2016, described as a year of "consolidation".

Plenty of other companies out there for punters, that at this stage look much more enticing.

That could all change at 7.00 am one of these mornings, and we could all be kicking ourselves for not buying more when we had the chance.

[iceboy] 11/7/2017 14:00

Yes, there have been two massive crashes in the share price here which will have burnt a lot of investors cash! So people will be wary. Without Cantor or another broker restoring a buy rating, I doubt that the share price is heading far north anytime soon.
But by November, the hoped for five new operational sites will certainly boost the share price And a few months is not long in investment terms.

[bishopawn] 11/7/2017 13:35

Waiting for the concrete to set is hardly getting people excited! lol!
Understandably it looks a long way off before the action begins.
False dawns and all that, causes a degree of caution here.

[cossie] 11/7/2017 12:38

Agreed Savvy, I guess everyone is waiting on the next lot of news to provide some visibility particularly with the gas project.

[1savvyinvestor] 11/7/2017 12:17

Very frustrating that buyers not coming in at these levels. In fact I find it astonishing. Without doubt one of the best prospects on the AIM market. I know that there is a massive amount going on in the background but nobody seems willing to buy in to the story here yet. Yet more patience required. Our time will come.

[bishopawn] 09/7/2017 14:12

Quite!

Why pay Cantor F. 60k p.a. for doing sweet f.a.
About time they got their finger out.
But, just maybe, they are perhaps waiting for news on the size and source of the funding for the gas sites, and then they can base their next projected figs on solid info.

Till then, as stated, a great opportunity for bottom feeders before the stampede returns.

[iceboy] 08/7/2017 08:25

Cantor have not withdrawn their downgrade even though Ofgem have reported back. This is probably deterring investors from returning despite the BOD advising reducing Triad payments makes little difference to future profits.
Perhaps the BOD want to appoint a different broker given this disagreement!
As for me, I don't need a positive broker rating to tell me this is an exciting company with massive growth potential. But I would like to see a positive broker rating restored.

[1savvyinvestor] 08/7/2017 07:30

Folder boy! Keep the faith! Of course it is frustrating seeing the price stuck here but important to understand this is still a young business. Markets used to look forward . At the moment only oilies and commodity stocks are attracting people looking for big profits quickly ! There is a significant chance of a major re-rate here. I'm not looking for a small 20% profit and get out here . Personally speaking the very minimum where I would de-risk is around 3p but I genuinely believe this could go much higher than that .

[folderboy] 07/7/2017 18:56

I do hope you are right - I hold a great number of these - however is it not a little worrying that the share price remains down here at 1.4p

[montynj] 07/7/2017 16:21

I've just taken out a monthly ISA savings plan and that will be going every month in to plutus Powergen. This is in addition to my already sizeable investment

[1savvyinvestor] 07/7/2017 16:00

As I am a long term holder here I could be accused of blatant ramping. However, in my humble opinion, this is likely to be one of the very strongest AIM shares over the second half of the year. We know that six sites will be operating by November (not priced in). We have a pretty clear idea that something is brewing with gas sites (zero value currently priced in). And then there are unknowns which could also appear to surprise the market in a positive sense!!
At the current market cap this has to be one of the more exciting investments on AIM currently and no need to speculate about Oil gushing!!
I totally accept I am biased but this is an insane time to sell and a fantastic time to buy. I am ridiculously excited by what could happen here.
In the mean time off to Wimbledon with Centre Court tickets tomorrow. After spending all that dosh I'd better get Federer!!!