Phoenix Global Mining Share Discussion Threads

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 20:06

This should contain an "Non Exhaustable" list of Industrial Catalysts using PGMs

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 19:08

Looks like Equity Bear may be over for a While.

Possible Rally into December post Double Bottom next week?

Or Rapid Inverted Head and Shoulders Aggressive Move straight up as Shorts Cover?

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 16:19

Rising Hammer on DJIA and $SPX, and I see on Palladium.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 16:05

Good Call on ENER Nirvs, going up just as fast as it consolidated.

Looks like DJIA and $SPX doing Hammer Bottom today very much as expected.

[sbs] 24/6/2008 15:51

Here's my palladium:

[nirvs] 24/6/2008 12:57

This article is interesting as it was posted two years ago, and said the biggest technological advances would occur around now. One of the Companies it mentions is Energy Conversion Devices Inc. I bought some a month ago at $56 and it hit $83 yesterday... ENER have over 300 Patents and a new CEO. I wonder if a new Tech Leap is here.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 11:24

I don't completely agree with this, but we must look at both angles, alot of people do not seem to have grasped Palladium Dominance of Petroleum/Gasoline Autocatalysts and Platinum Dominance of Diesel Autocatalysts.

Just because I am a Palladium Bull, does not Mean that I am a Platinum Bear at All!



PLATINUM GROUP METALS
PGM PRICE RELATIONSHIPS
How far can palladium substitute for platinum
With the big and rapid increase in platinum prices over the past month, an analyst's thoughts turn to substitution, and here some of the likelihoods of increased palladium for platinum substitution in the catalyst and jewellery sectors are examined.

Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Wednesday , 13 Feb 2008

LONDON -

After the dramatic spikes in the precious metals sector in 1979 and 1980, it took six years for gold jewellery demand to return to 1978 levels, and silver took considerably longer, with industrial demand (including jewellery) not regaining 1978 levels until 1990, a full decade after the price hike that carried gold to $850 and silver to $50. What is thus the prognosis for platinum this time around?

The frenetic activity in the platinum market with prices continuing to register new records means that, despite the fact that palladium is being pulled along in platinum's wake; the price differential between the two has now exceeded $1,500. Put another way, platinum is now almost 4.5 times as expensive as palladium and the word "substitution" is on many lips. The obvious areas for substitution are the jewellery sector, and emission control catalysts. Both of these sectors have been looking at the interplay between the two metals for a number of years and in the automotive sector in particular engineers are constantly looking for ways to maximise catalyst efficiency while minimising costs.

Back in 2000 and 2001 palladium rocketed to more than $1,000 an ounce when automotive manufacturers in North America were panicking over a potential shortage of metal. Palladium reached a maximum premium over platinum of $475 on 26th January. Over the preceding year platinum prices rose by 34% while those of palladium by 124%.

The result was renewed efforts to shift back towards platinum in the automotive sector, although the pattern was different with respect to jewellery, where outright prices were playing more of a role than the proportional difference between the two. GFMS Ltd reports that industrial demand for palladium in 2000 was 9.6 million ounces (298 tonnes), with emission control catalysts accounting for 6.0 million ounces or 63% of total. Note that GFMS records "consumption" whereas the Johnson Matthey figures refer to sales into the industry and so the parameters are slightly different, with inventory shifts marking the major difference between the two sets of figures.

Palladium demand since then has dropped to approximately eight million ounces per annum, with offtake in emission control catalysts falling to 4.1 million ounces in 2005 before starting to increase once more. The drop in palladium usage in emission control catalysts between 2000 and 2005 was thus 31% or an annual average of almost 8% per annum. This is despite the fact that the number of vehicles fitted with emission control catalysts increased by 14% overall, or an average of 2.6% per annum over the period.

Platinum demand in emission control catalyst over the same period rose from 2.2 million ounces to almost four million ounces and has continued to expand since. This is not only a function of platinum re-substituting in part for palladium, but also due to the fact that diesel vehicles have been taking an increasing proportion of the global fleet and, until recently, emission control for diesel-powered vehicles was the exclusive domain of platinum. In 2000, diesel accounted for only 18% of global production of light vehicles, and for 19% of catalyst-bearing vehicles. By 2007, diesel accounted for 24% of total and 25% of catalyst-bearing vehicles.

The geographic split of this is also interesting with Europe well and truly in the vanguard with respect to diesel vehicles. In 2000, diesel accounted for 37% of light vehicle production, but in 2007 it absorbed approximately 51% of total. The headway in the gasoline sector in China means that diesel share has actually dropped over the period, from 21% to 16%. In Japan the share is less than 10% while in North America it is less than 5% - although this us up from less than 2% in 2000.

The balance between palladium and platinum usage in diesel is changing, with advances in fuel technology now meaning that palladium can substitute for platinum (up to about 25% of total) in catalysts for diesel-powered engines, and the recent relative price performance for the two metals is virtually guaranteed to ensure that this work will continue. Furthermore the massive increases in gasoline prices has, as well as resulting in consumers looking in part, for smaller vehicles than hitherto when changing their cars, meant that diesel is now taking more of a foothold in north America than previously and the 5% figure noted above can be expected to increase.

All of this points to a resurgence in palladium demand at the expense of platinum. Although we have noted that this trend is already underway, however, it is important not to get too carried away by the speed with which this substitution will have an impact on the market. New designs for emission control catalysts frequently require new engine calibration and certification and this can take months. There was already likely to be a notable increase in palladium usage in diesel emission control catalysts; this is likely to be extended in 2009 as a result of price shifts.

The jewellery sector is more rapidly responsive to price exchanges although as noted above this tends to be more a function of outright prices rather than relative performance. Absolute high prices across the precious metals spectrum are likely to impinge on jewellery demand in all metals this year, and the platinum price romping towards $2,000 is likely to have a substantial effect on platinum jewellery demand. Palladium is likely to take an increased market share at platinum's expense, but the market itself is likely to be smaller as a result of consumer resistance. The one area that is likely to remain resilient is the market for wedding bands, especially in Asia.

Platinum jewellery demand reached a peak in 2002, driven by burgeoning interest in China and reaching almost three million ounces or 39% of total industrial demand of 2.8 million ounces. Palladium demand in the jewellery sector stood at that point at 337,000 ounces. Platinum demand has tapered off since, dropping below 1.8 million ounces while palladium offtake has increased towards one million ounces. Platinum jewellery usage has therefore declined by roughly one million ounces per annum while that of palladium has increased by more than 600,000 ounces. Palladium pieces are typically lighter than those of platinum, so palladium's encroachment in terms of the number of pieces is likely to be higher than these bald tonnage figures would suggest. Global jewellery platinum demand is currently equivalent to roughly 22% of platinum demand and 12% of palladium demand.

With South African platinum supplies likely to be restricted by anything up to 300,000 ounces this year, (dependent upon the analysis that one chooses to read) as a result of the power supply problems, then all other things being equal, i.e. if jewellery demand were the only variable in the equation, it would have to contract by almost 20% in 2008 in order to offset the reduction in primary supply of refined metal. Furthermore ETF demand is likely to remain strong. Demand so far this year in the London-based platinum ETF has been 123,000 ounces, taking holdings up by 88% over the past six weeks. This is hardly likely to be sustained throughout the year as a whole, but it already points to sustained tightness in the platinum market.

While it is too early yet to quantify the absolute shifts within the platinum and palladium markets this year, we can be reasonably sure that platinum prices will remain high and that jewellery demand will suffer. The cautionary note, of course, is that when the market rids itself of this tightness then there is scope for plenty of profit taking and this, on the back of a weakened jewellery market, is likely to lead to falls every bit as rapid as their recent rise.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 11:17

It is Clear Palladium has a Major Cost Price Advantage currently!



Environmental



Due to its unique chemical and metallurgical properties gold is has a vital role to play in future technologies aimed at reducing pollution and energy consumption. Examples include:


Water Purification
Chlorinated hydrocarbons are major pollutants of groundwater. For example, trichloroethene is used to degrease metals and electronic parts in the automotive, metals and electronic industries and also in chemicals production, textile cleaning and consumer products. Recent research at Rice University's Centre for Biological and Environmental Nanotechnology has revealed that bimetallic gold-palladium nanoparticles provide an active catalyst to break down trichlorethene (TCE), one of the most common and poisonous groundwater pollutants. TCE has been linked to liver damage, impaired pregnancy and cancer. The new catalyst works better than the carbon filters currently in use because it converts the TCE to non-toxic components instead of just trapping it in the filter. It also performs better than iron because it is not consumed in the reaction and, thus, can be used repeatedly; in contrast, iron catalysts produce toxic intermediate chemicals such as vinyl chloride.

Palladium catalysts have previously been shown to remove trichloroethene and other chlorinated compounds from water effectively at room temperature using hydrogen, but catalyst cost is a significant barrier to widespread adoption. In order to use less metal, Dr Wong's team at Rice coated small amounts of palladium atoms onto gold nanoparticles. The increase in catalytic activity was exciting. Gold is more expensive than palladium but, since the nanoparticles are so much more active they are more cost effective. This nanomaterial opens up tremendous opportunities in groundwater clean-up. In other work, researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology, have proven that gold nanoparticles, incorporated into a point-of-use water purification device, can be effective in the capture and removal of halocarbon-based pesticides from drinking water


Mercury Control
The US is relying increasingly on the use of coal to produce electrical power and significant levels of mercury occur in the effluent from these power plants. Control of mercury, which has been linked to Alzheimer's disease and autism, is expected to be achieved in the US by imposed limits on mercury emissions from coal-fired boilers in the utilities industry. One method to increase mercury removal is to introduce a catalyst to enhance the oxidation of mercury and gold catalysts are proving to be very promising. Full scale trials are currently underway, see National Energy Technology Laboratory for more information.


Diesel Emission Control
The recent announcement by U.S. company Nanostellar that they have developed an automotive pollution control catalyst for diesel engines that contains gold, as well as the traditional platinum and palladium ingredients, is a major step-forward in cost effective emission control.

Used in nanoparticulate form, the use of platinum group metals in this application has soared from when they were first introduced in the mid-70's to currently over 260 tonnes annually. With limited newly mined supply of platinum group metals, the cost of these catalyst systems is a major issue for automotive manufacturers and reductions in the cost of precious metal used is an on-going target.

In recent years, producers of catalyst materials have varied the relative amounts of palladium and platinum, depending on the price of the respective metals. Independent testing of Nanostellar's NS Gold™, has shown that NS Gold™ increases hydrocarbon oxidation activity by 15-20 percent at equal precious-metal cost. A tri-metal formulation of gold, platinum, and palladium, NS Gold™ allows the proportions of each metal to be adjusted to help catalyst systems engineers meet engine-specific performance targets and stabilize the overall cost of diesel catalysts, despite fluctuations in the price of precious metals.

NS Gold™ is potentially suitable for treating all lean-stream exhaust, where air is in excess of fuel-borne hydrocarbon gases. Applications include, but are not limited to, treating particulates and hydrocarbons in soot filters, stationary-source volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions, and ammonia slip in selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems. For more information visit www.nanostellar.com


'Green' Chemistry
Green chemistry, also called sustainable chemistry, is a chemical philosophy encouraging the design of industrial chemicals and processes that reduce or eliminate the use and generation of hazardous substances. The use of gold as a catalyst has a major role to play in green chemistry.

For example, most industrial oxidation processes tend to use chlorine or organic peroxides. The chlorine processes produce large amounts of chloride salts and significant amounts of chlorinated organic by-products. The disadvantage of organic peroxides is their expense. It is fair to say that the chemical industry would be transformed if selective oxidation of hydrocarbons could be achieved efficiently using cheap and clean oxygen from the air. Recently a team led by Graham J. Hutchings, professor of physical chemistry at Cardiff University, in Wales, has shown that gold nanoparticles supported on carbon activate molecular oxygen in air to convert alkenes to partial oxidation products such as epoxides at atmospheric pressure and temperatures of 60–80 °C (Nature 2005, 437, 1132). This advance of 'greener' methods for oxidation catalysis using gold is a very important development.

As global demand and prices for petroleum-based feedstocks continue to rise, chemists are being challenged to devise processes that use biomass-derived feedstocks. In one of the latest developments, workers of the Center for Sustainable & Green Chemistry at the Technical University of Denmark, in Lyngby, have come up with a gold-catalyzed procedure for selective oxidation of the biomass-derived platform chemicals furfural and hydroxymethylfurfural to form their respective methyl esters. These chemicals are used for flavour and fragrance applications, in plastics and potentially as industrial solvents.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 11:09

An integrated purification and production of hydrogen with a palladium membrane-catalytic reactor

Yu-Ming Lina, *, Guo-Lin Leeb and Min-Hon Rei1, b

a Energy&Resources Laboratories/Industrial Technology Research Institute Bldg. 64, 195-6, Sec. 4, Chung Hsing Rd., Chutung Hsinchu 310 Taiwan

b China Technical Consults, Inc. 8F, 97, Sec. 2, Tun Hwa South Rd. Taipei 104 Taiwan


Available online 24 November 1998.




References and further reading may be available for this article. To view references and further reading you must purchase this article.


Abstract
In this paper, we presented an integrated production and purification process of hydrogen by the use of a defect-free palladium membrane. Hydrogen could be purified from a variety of mixtures providing the purity of 3–7 N depending on the feeding stream. The permeation parameters are accurately predicted by a separation model as established. The membrane is prepared by electroless plating and is stable among 300–400°C. Using an active catalyst, the rate of steam reforming of methanol was found to be significantly faster than that without a membrane module. In the steam reforming of methane, the reaction temperature was lowered to 500°C to achieve a conversion of 45%, which is 15% higher than the thermodynamic equilibrium conversion.

Author Keywords: Hydrogen; Palladium membrane; Steam reforming; Equilibrium

Article Outline

[riggerbeautz] 24/6/2008 09:38

LCT,

Yes forgot SASOL, good point. Also O/T been following Solar stocks some time selectively and agree with Uranium, but not in yet.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 09:33

Needing Catalysts made from Platinum Group Metals to do so.

All Petrochemical Plants have PGM Catalysts.

All bases are covered.

You can tell once Pd PAU08 Breaks US$484.90 we have a pretty rapid US$81.90 Move to US$566.80 toz.

Both Left and Right Inverted Shoulders in now.

[sbs] 24/6/2008 09:31

Palladium won't reach $10k/oz for a long time. But you can never tell with the USD.

Most spare oil capacity is heavy oil, and whole factories need to be designed and built to crack it for petrol and diesel, so I don't see any major new supply for a while. Demand, OTOH, must react to this sudden rise in prices.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 09:21

RB,

Remember SASOL made Petroleum from Coal throughout RSA Aparteid Era and Sanctions.

People forget that.

The Enormous Mongolian Coal Deposits could greatly change people's perceptions of the Dependence of China on Oil solely for Energy as may their planned Nuclear Power Station Build.

Oh yes obviously Palladium though untalked about is important in Nuclear.

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 09:13

RB,

Palladium Commodity Longs may prove to be a very useful hedge against Oil positions I feel.

Have you noticed the way Alternative Energy stocks eg Solar, Wind, FCT, Hybrids etc have been running up recently?

Best sector Coal.

Next Sector will be Uranium.

Remember Speculators don't care which sector they play, as long as it is moving!

[riggerbeautz] 24/6/2008 08:51

LCT,

Going back to your points on supply problems in S.A impacting on Palladium. Had a look at eskom and found this recent update. Not knocking eskom, but would say it's very fingers crossed stuff as they imply. Obvious implications on power supply and hence Palladium production i would think?

[le couteau tombant] 24/6/2008 08:46

RB,

I don't actually think the Oil Price will go much higher, it might have a brief blow off top perhaps, with with supply growing at in excess of 2% Compound pa and Demand increasing historically by 1% pa and about to go into negative territory, I think Oil is far more likely to be trading in the US$80 to US$94.16 bbl area soon, as opposed to near current prices.

I hear currently excess capacity is circa 4,800,000 bopd and rising as Countries refuse to take Delivery at current prices, tankers circling offshore, building up to who cracks first?

Then rush for Docking Facilities simultaneously my call.




You and I both know that the amount of Speculator Highly Margined Commodity Trading Money in Oil mean that when the bubble bursts it will go down rapidly as trailing stops are breached and selling breeds on selling.

As Palladium is a beneficiary of reducing oil prices arguably in Demand Terms, I can see alot of those oil profits turning up here, as well as more evenly distributed across other Energy Sectors.

There are plenty of places to invest in Energy, many with far more upside than oil. For example Natural Gas and Nuclear look far better options to me!

A Reality check on oil that has been losing market share to coal and other Energy sources for 26 years!



The Commodity Sector is likely to see a Major shift in sector commodity weightings soon.

The particular beauty of Palladium as a Commodity Play, is that it is not dependent on a hyper inflationary ludicrous oil price to shine, being essential in any Energy Sector known to man!

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 23:33

SBS,

Or Realistically Vastly in excess of these levels, afterall remember where Rhodium went!

US$10,010 per troy ounce ie US$321.83 per gramme!

I fully accept that the Palladium Market is a Little More Liquid than Rhodium, but the Point I make is still Valid!

[sbs] 23/6/2008 21:04

Thought I'd drop in here.

I have some palladium. It's replacing platinum for jewellery, and also for catalytic converters.

I've heard the Russian stockpiles are diminishing (though their exact size is a state secret), and we could eventually end up with no stockpiles and jumps in price of many times.

And, you never know, if cold fusion ever works in a verifiable and repeatable way, it'll go back to the wild prices prevalent when the first claims were published.

[riggerbeautz] 23/6/2008 20:23

My only concern with your estimates is what assumption are you working on for oil costs? You know where i'm coming from, buy the U.S arguement you mentioned, convinced me on that and i'm convinced of upside, just not by how much. YET LOL

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 20:09

CHINA AUTOMOTIVE STAND ALONE

Looks like I should be using 10,280,000 units 2008, and possibly 20,000,000 units 2010.

Being safe lets predict 17.41% Compound Growth pa ie

2008 10,280,000
2009 12,070,000
2010 14,171,000
2011 16,638,000
2012 19,535,000

Estimated 72.50% should be passenger cars presumably 27.50% Commercial Vehicles (2007 Statistical split 6.38m/8.80m).

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 20:04

Passenger Car Price in China: Up or Down?

Updated: 2008-04-11 Source: ChinaBizIntel




Although Volkswagen has denied the rumour of "general price hikes in April" for its passenger cars in China, speculations for car price increases in China are still rampant.

Mr Rao Da, Secretary-General of National Passenger Car Information Exchange Association, suggested that car price inflection points may appear this year or the next. Due to rising raw materials and labour costs, it is expected that cost per car may increase by 1500 to 3000 yuan (RMB:USD = 7:1) in 2008. Even for upgraded models, the cost would still increase due to the associated moulding, inspecting and machinery tools. But the fierce competition in China's auto market has deterred most auto companies from unilateral price hikes.

Hidden price hikes

As apparent price increases may attract resentment from consumers, many manufacturers are now launching new models to obtain higher prices. And some upgraded models are also indirectly lifting prices by adding on extra accessories. An industry veteran revealed that many so-called annual upgraded models are essentially the same as the old models, with only a handful of extras, but much higher prices. In addition, many auto dealers are also promoting extra accessories to make extra profits.

One sales manager from a branded dealer shop revealed that in recent years, as the Chinese auto market is becoming more and more competitive, car prices have been on a downward trend. Therefore many automakers and dealers are trying every means to recoup the margins, with "compulsory add-ons" being the most notable one. Dealers are also manipulating some car buyers' urgency to take delivery of the car, by encouraging them to purchase add-ons to speed up the delivery process. It is reported that margins on decorative accessories can be as high as 30-40%, and profits from selling decorative products for five cars are similar to selling one whole car.

Experts pointed out that even though most automakers are publicly saying that they can absorb the increased manufacturing costs, the tight margin of auto manufacturing has made them difficult to do so in the short term. As a result, in order to keep the margin stable, indirect price hikes could be the instant solution.

Price inflection point coming? "As domestic steel price has increased 500 yuan per ton, cost of producing a medium size car should increase by 1000 yuan correspondingly. And higher labour costs in China will also push up producers' costs. All these costs are not that easy to be absorbed by companies," Mr Rao Da considered that as the world is now on an inflation path, China will not be immune.

Despite the bullish tune for car price hikes, there are also many sceptics. On one hand, due to the rising CPI, steel and oil prices, car manufacturing costs are going up, putting tremendous pressure on automakers in China. On the other hand, the continued declining price trend, technological advancement and market saturation have been reducing car prices again and again. Most consumers are already used to cheaper cars, a price hike is something next to unacceptable. Many auto manufacturers are extremely cautious about price hikes, which could be a landmine for anyone. The passenger car market of China is now very competitive, but companies are still expanding their capacities. It is estimated that by 2010, annual car output capacity in China may reach 20 million units, almost doubling the estimated demand in the same period. This forecasted capacity surplus has placed doubts over the possibility of any price hikes.

Consumer voting with their feet A consumer survey on "whether car prices will increase" revealed that 71.5% respondents didn't think there would be any price hikes in 2008, against 13.5% saying "possible hikes". Among the 3000 respondents, 65.3% said that car price hikes will definitely affect their purchase plans, against only 20% saying "not affected". Latest data from China Automobile Industry Association showed that despite car sales volume growth had slowed down from 25.3% in 2006 to 22% in 2007, profits had grown 65% in the same period. Total profits had exceeded 100 billion yuan, among which 61 billion yuan were contributed by the top 16 leading manufacturers. Profit growth for these leaders has exceeded their sales growth rates, indicating improved industry performance.

It is estimated that China's car sales volume in 2008 will reach 10.28 million units, a 17% increase from last year. Albeit the rising steel and labour costs, profit growth for the Chinese auto industry is still expected to be 32% this year. But the world automotive history has shown that when a car market enters a mature stage, the whole industry's profitability will inevitably decline. Against this backdrop, any plan to pass cost pressures to consumers is probably not feasible.

The survey also revealed that the reason why more than 34% consumers would not accept price hikes of their favourite car models is because there are alternative models for them to choose from. Even for those that can afford price hikes, 90% of them can tolerate a price increase of only 5% or less. All signs are pointing to that for car price hikes, consumers will eventually vote with their feet.



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Note: Reproduction of our articles for non-commercial purposes only is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged and a link back to us is a must.

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 19:57

China Passenger Car Sales Rise 24 Percent in March
2008-04-09 15:25:25 Xinhua

China passenger car sales rose 23.6 percent in March compared with the same period a year earlier, the biggest monthly rise in seven months, as the market recovered rapidly after the freak winter weather, an industry group said.

Sales reached 700,500 cars last month, up 43.3 percent from February, according to the semi-official China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

First-quarter sales rose 20.4 percent to 1.85 million, including 1.37 million sedans, 55,300 minivans and 101,800 sport-utility vehicles.

Volkswagen AG's two Chinese ventures - FAW Volkswagen and Shanghai Volkswagen - topped the sales list in the first three months, as the German company, Europe's largest car maker, boosted China sales by 32.5 percent to 268,200 vehicles. Shanghai GM, the Detroit-based car maker's venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., sold the third largest amount of cars.

Domestic vehicle production and sales both surged more than 20 percent to a record 8.8 million units last year, in contrast to weakening sales worldwide.

China, the world's second largest car market, produced 6.38 million passenger cars and sold 6.3 million units last year.

[le couteau tombant] 23/6/2008 19:42

As Palladium Usage in Autocatalysts was up 10.80% in 2007 now representing 83% to 85% of Gasoline/Petroleum Autocatalysts, and China and Indian Growth should logically Eat into any supply surplus as will ETF's I think we can safely say with Chinese Motor Car Demand up 20% in 2007, there is unlikely to be a Surplus in 2008.

I quote:-

"According to Xinhua News Agency, the official press agency of the government of the People's Republic of China, passenger car sales in the first five months of 2008 were up 17.41% over the prior-year period. "Auto sales are expected to exceed 10 million units this year, which would represent a full year sales growth of 14%," Xinuha reported, citing China's automobile manufacturers association."


10,000,000 new cars should equate to 60,000,000 to 70,000,000 grammes of PGM assuming 6 to 7 grammes per vehicle.

I would expect that to be 50,000,000 grammes ie 1,607,536 troy ounces of Palladium assuming 83% to 85% Pd say not less than 5 grammes per vehicle.

Stack on the ETF's eating up another 541,000 plus toz Pd and I do not see a surplus, in fact far from it!

India and Rest of Asia Growth not counted yet.

It looks to me as though Palladium far more likely to go back to US$593.70 per oz in September 2008 Future PAU08 per 28th February 2008 than anywhere else if not higher logically.

The Previous High had not Priced in 17.40% increase in Chinese Motor Demand, nor success of 2 Palladium ETF's!