Phoenix Copper Share Discussion Threads

[pantsonfire] 14/5/2020 06:52

WH Ireland Research - Risk Analysis(See my earlier post for the link to the research)
Direct quotes follow on the Risk Analysis by WH Ireland in their research:

“Commodity risk is low”
“Sovereign risk is low”
“Market Risk is low”,
“Operating Risk are low-moderate”
“Project execution Risk is low”
“Permitting risk is low”
“Capital market risk low in the case of Phoenix but perhaps the biggest risk to the ongoing ambitions of the company at this stage”
What more do we need to know at this stage to manage risks on this potential 10 bagger?

[pantsonfire] 14/5/2020 06:45

Good morning Macky and lmr2. Nice posts. I feel the same way. I've also held since the start, and now have great confidence in the company. Doesn't this research make you feel that we are on our way to delivering that goal? That we're on the cusp of success? That the wait has been worth while? I wish you very good health and great success with Phoenix!

[pantsonfire] 14/5/2020 06:41

See my previous post for the link to this research by WH Ireland. Here follow the extracts I promised:

“Our fair value for Phoenix is 34p/sh.“

“Unrisked our fair value target would rise from 34p/sh to 140p/sh. it shows what perhaps could be achieved if Phoenix could navigate the process from explorer to developer.”

“Investment case in a nutshell Phoenix Copper has advanced-stage exploration projects in Idaho and is seeking to develop a quick-to-market lead-silver mine at Red Star. In addition the company has a large copper-zinc(-gold-silver) resource at Empire, close to Red Star and two pure exploration plays: Navarre Creek for gold and Bighorn and Redcastle for cobalt – all of which have compelling geology. Red Star is a small, fundable project (in our opinion) which could generate the cash flow required to explore properly the obvious base and precious metal potential of the Red Star / Empire area. Fully funded for the next stage of resource development at Red Star, we expect 2020 to be a catalyst-rich year with substantial progress made to a development decision.”

“Red Star is a small, fundable project (in our opinion) which could generate the cash flow required to explore properly the obvious base and precious metal potential of the whole area.”

“the whole area remains prospective for further significant finds in our view”

“Future district potential is compelling. The whole Alder Creek district has significant potential with the old miners barely scratching the surface in our opinion.”

“we are of the opinion that there may be a larger prize at depth – perhaps a large-scale disseminated base metal deposit.”

“The current 20 hole drill program at Red Star will provide the early catalysts – with news on assay data and then a resource update, which should lead to an economic development plan. We also expect news of a new process flow sheet for Empire to demonstrate that the production of gold and silver is also viable from the copper-zinc ore.”

“WHI View Exploration companies always carry some risk, but Phoenix has passed the first hurdle, in our view, and demonstrated a resource (Empire) and is currently in the process of defining the limits and grades at a second deposit (Red Star). We see fair value at 34p/sh based on a SOTP valuation suitably risking the projects. Unrisked our fair value target would rise from 34p/sh to 140p/sh.”

“there is the potential for gold exploration Although the gold project is not a priority at the current time the Navarre Creek licence does show certain markers for the presence of epithermal gold mineralisation.̶1;

“Management interests aligned with shareholders. Management has stated it wishes to fund the projects from debt rather than resort to equity-heavy solutions for the benefit of shareholders. Directors also regularly buy in the market and also subscribe in equity placings – putting real skin in the game rather than relying on generous option packages.”

[pantsonfire] 14/5/2020 06:37

WH Ireland Research – My Review:
Have you seen the research by WH Ireland and posted on the Phoenix site? Go to hxxps://phoenixcopperlimited.com/research and download this report. This is a splendid document. Very professional and detailed. Don’t trust me. I urge you to study it yourselves. Make your own analysis.
Let me give here my own key points, and then in my next post extract the words on which this is based.
WH Ireland see a fair value today at 34p per share, moving up to 140ish by the end of next year when the company is derisked, whilst they believe the company has already managed the risk concerning demonstrating the resource.
My own opinion is that this 140p share price will come earlier, and maybe go higher, since this report does not take account of the resources outside the immediate view, plus I believe that the placing of finance could give a massive hike to the overall programme, and not just the relatively narrow focus of this present research. That’s a near ten times bagger in just over a year, with much more to follow.
The whole area remains prospective for further significant finds in their view, with WH Ireland commending the road being taken to start with Red Star and use this as a lever to exploit the rest, including generating the revenue to look at the possibly huge unexplored potential at depth.
As was posted here yesterday yesterday by investorman33, this could be a billion dollar company in the not too distant future. That does sound good, so I'll say it again. A billion dollar company.

[lmr2] 13/5/2020 22:50

Agreed mackay. I’ve been heavily invested in these guys since mid 2015 and have had to argue myself out of cutting losses as I keep seeing the good signs I had sensed back then when they were pgm.
When did you jump onboard? Where do you see these shares reaching when they start to realise their potential?

[mackaythenoo] 13/5/2020 17:00

As a long term holder of this stock, I am only interested in two things:-
1. That the quantity and quality of the minerals are (at least) as stated in the reports to date
2. That the company survives long enough to extract those minerals from the ground.
The day to day share price is of no particular interest to me. As long as the above two points hold true then all long term holders will benefit many multiple times once the company starts to share the profits from the ongoing operations.
If you are prepared to hold for 18-24 months then I believe that you will reap the rewards of patience. If you are going to sell then tell me which stock you will place those funds in to(as I haven’t stumbled upon a better risk/reward stock than this one)

[investorman33] 13/5/2020 16:26

Pants

I too missed that remark first time round.

However I expect any news on the Red Star project whether drilling progress (and we know the first assay results may still to be a couple or 3 weeks away)or any information allowing us to estimate the real size of the project will allow that 'transformational' word to be used again - as that is likely to be the first project into production with (and I'm guessing) US$ 10m+ pa cash flow. And cash flow is always handy, let alone that project probably largely underpinning the current market cap by itself.

Lots of other things may help like news on Empire updated economic model to exploit the one billion dollar (I really enjoy writing that so I'll say it again 'one billion dollar')resource to extract more of the gold and silver and make for a higher value project and even news on the cobalt belt opportunities.

[pantsonfire] 13/5/2020 15:21

And did you pick up on the CEO's remark that latest analysis in finds have been "transformational"? I think it was missed, as the share price barely fluttered. See his video interview on hxxps://www.share-talk.com/bw-business-news-ryan-mcdermott-phoenix-copper-pxc-l-update/. It's well worth a look.

[pantsonfire] 13/5/2020 14:30

It’s been a quiet few days, so let me remind you of the main points about Phoenix.
The key message is that Phoenix is a company about to burst forth and multiply. They are sitting on a massive resource, are very well advanced with a drilling programme currently under way, leading into a FS later this year, and into finance for construction with production planned to start before end 2021. Resource information shows that the company is massively, massively undervalued. This company has a market capital today of approx £10 million, but within 18 months it could be worth near to ten times that. All this is spelled out and/or can be calculated from official public documents. Read and do that yourselves!
Some see the principal risk as financing the venture, but when you have a potential billion dollars of measured & indicated resources that should not be so difficult. They have taken the logical way through, by focussing on a small part of their resources, the “Red Star” mine, where for approx $25 million capital investment, they will generate the cash flow to exploit the giant reserves lying elsewhere in their property.
So, buy in today, hold, and you get access into a billion dollar company at a discount price. You need to do the research for yourselves, quite obviously.

[goldrush] 13/5/2020 13:12

dave4545

The market was soft this morning given the reversal on the Dow yesterday....and then someone sold 10k and they just widened the spread.....copper up nearly 3 cents....silver up.....fundamentals encouraging IMHO

[dave4545] 13/5/2020 12:59

15.9-18.9 now

Amazingly somebody bought at 18.75p and the mm upped the bid 0.1 how generous eh

[dave4545] 13/5/2020 11:23

mm's determined to kill this off.

Now 15.8-18.75p spread...which is ridiculous but that is done to stop all buying and one by one get people to give up and sell and that is how mm's make their money

[jeanesy] 12/5/2020 19:28

Yes we just need it to get noticed by a few more investors

[goldrush] 12/5/2020 18:40

There were just 2 transactions today.... 2 buy trades and the second one just over a thousand had to pay a fraction more....they were

5264 @ 18.90 and then 1029 @ 18.94

Just goes to show that there are not many shares around and anything over market size of 7500 is going to be over 19p IMHO

[zaphod99] 11/5/2020 06:11

hTTps://www.mining.com/chiles-mining-minister-promotes-use-of-copper-to-fight-covid-19/

[investorman33] 08/5/2020 16:14

Thanks Zaphod

Copper price is still a good 15% below where it was before the start of coronavirus in China made copper price drop off a cliff, and about 20% or more off the average price over the 3 years or so before that.

And recovery of the price to the average of 3 years ago would add about an extra £80m to the value of metal in ground on the Empire resource announced recently just on 'measured and indicated' (versus today's copper price) and closer to £130m based upon 'measured & indicated and inferred'. No small adjustments to be made.

By the time the time Empire goes into production, its not unreasonable to expect copper prices to be a lot closer to the 3 year average than current prices, simply because demand is likely to be back a lot closer to previous demand than that now. IMO of course !


And there's lots of expectation that gold and silver prices will also shoot up, so lots of upside still to come just on metal prices - on both Empire and the nearer term Red Star !

[dave4545] 07/5/2020 22:23

I think we suffered from a distressed pi that seemed to just want out after the update. The mm saw them coming and completely ripped them off for last batch of 50k at 12.75p

Price to buy finished strong today 18.9p on that 16-19p spread so normal service resumed so could be back over 20p again next week

[milliecusto] 07/5/2020 22:04

Pxc is very much under the radar, has more potential than ggp and valued at £9m mkt cap, happy with a slow and steady increase

[pantsonfire] 07/5/2020 21:01

hxxps://www.share-talk.com/bw-business-news-ryan-mcdermott-phoenix-copper-pxc-l-update/#gs.62t8si
Here's my approximate transcript of the interview:
"Two principal operations today. Red Star and Empire Open Pit.
At Empire, we have only looked so far on the upper reaches. The deep sulphide still exists, but has not been looked at yet. Up till 2018 all drilling was focused on oxide copper. Any precious metals happened to exist within the copper. They we figured out the precious metals were deposited some time after the copper, and on different trends. As a result our modelling group came up with new polymetallic source, with much more gold and silver. This is transformationnel for Phoenix.
Red Star was found adjacent to a known deposit, and has higher grade silver and lead. The drilling programme is proceeding. The Covid-19 is not having a significant impact in the region. The drilling team is following protocols, and consider themselves to be lucky to have paying jobs, which they want to retain, so are maintaining their isolation. Have had no issues and do not anticipate any. We are yelling at each other from a distance. "
"What should investors be expecting in next period?"
"The drilling programme at Red Star should complete for mid-June. The first assays should also be released in mid-June, baring issues in the laboratory. Assays will continue to come in through July and August and will be released as we move forward.
The work to date is possibly just scratching the surface on a copper gold silver zinc asset."

[jeanesy] 07/5/2020 20:20

POG and silver doing very nicely this evening :) I see the last price paid for these was highest all day. Should all bode well for next week . Even better when this gets noticed by others

[goldrush] 07/5/2020 14:16

I33

Thanks for the ft article.

It makes a change for the financial mainstream press to be bullish on silver !!....

[investorman33] 07/5/2020 14:04

Financial Times is very bullish on silver price (which is largest $'s in Red Star, and significant metal in Empire)



Investors are betting on a rally in silver, after the gap between gold and the industrial metal soared to its widest level in more than three centuries.

In March the price of an ounce of gold was 125 times higher than the same amount of silver — a record going back to at least 1687, according to data compiled by Ross Norman, a veteran gold trader. But since then the gap has closed to about 113 times, and analysts say more gains for silver are possible, as economies start to recover from the shock of coronavirus-related lockdowns and demand returns for use of the metal in electronics and solar panels.

“The longer gold keeps having a good performance you will get speculators . . . who will go ‘oh silver is really cheap’,” said Grant Beasley, a fund manager at Highbury Capital in Toronto. “It’s not the most complicated argument but it’s true. As the speculative fever increases retail investors will go crazy. And then when they’re feverish you’re close to the top.”

Silver prices dropped to an 11-year low of $11.62 a troy ounce in mid-March, but the metal has since rebounded to trade at $15 as holdings of silver-backed exchange traded funds hit a record high this month of 675m ounces. Analysts at Bank of America predict silver could rise to $20 over the next 12 months as economic growth rebounds. In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, silver rallied 440 per cent from its bottom to $48.44 a troy ounce in 2011. Gold has risen by 11 per cent this year to about $1,690 a troy ounce, driven by investor demand for the traditional haven asset. Holdings in gold-backed exchange traded funds rose seven-fold in the first quarter to a record high of 3,185 tonnes in March, according to the World Gold Council. The recent rally in the yellow metal was a sign of “deep anxiety about the global financial system”, said Mr Norman. In Alexander the Great’s time the silver/gold ratio was about 12 to 1 and an inscription from the Karnak temple in ancient Egypt reports it as 13.3 to 1.“Gold’s safe-haven status is coming to the fore,” he said. “Normally you’d expect silver to come along for the ride.”

About half of silver demand comes from the industrial sector, including the car and solar power industry, which has made it more vulnerable to the economic effects of coronavirus. Solar power projects are being delayed while the electronics supply chain has been hit by weaker consumer demand. Analysts at Metals Focus predict that industrial demand for silver will drop by 7 per cent this year, with declines across all industries. That is unlikely to be offset by shutdowns of silver mines in Mexico, Peru and Argentina, leaving a surplus of 14.7m ounces this year, they forecast. Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered, said silver tended to need solid demand from both investors and industries to outperform. That may not happen until later this year, she said. Still, for many investors silver is too cheap, even given the Covid-19 slowdown. Ian Williams, chairman of the Charteris Treasury Portfolio Managers fund, said silver was just as good as gold as a hedge against inflation. “You can go back 3,000 years before Christ — silver has never been this cheap relative to gold,” he said. “There’s no justifiable reason.” Silver miners offer more upside to a rising price than gold miners, according to Mr Beasley. Many miners needed a price of just $17 to break even, he said. “When silver really starts to take off, the . . . returns in silver versus a gold producer are two to three times,” he said. Among the biggest gainers in the sector so far are First Majestic Silver, a Toronto-listed miner whose shares rose by 29 per cent last month, roughly double the rise in the Canadian benchmark. Last week Canadian mining billionaire Eric Sprott made his biggest personal investment in silver, buying a C$60m ($42m) stake in Toronto-listed explorer MAG Silver. Enthusiasts note that the metal is used in clean-energy technologies that are set to see growing demand such as electric cars and solar panels. It is also used in 5G mobile infrastructure and in radars for autonomous vehicles. New usages are emerging too: in March Samsung announced a new lithium-ion battery that uses a thin layer of silver-carbon material rather than graphite on its anode. “Because silver has such a wide range of applications, when one slows there’s potential for another to pick up,” said Philip Newman, an analyst at Metals Focus. “The range of applications argues for a very strong future.”


The good news just keeps coming for Phoenix !