Petroceltic Share Discussion Threads

[freelunch] 02/3/2011 16:06

Yep rather suspect and for me Blue they had a whiff of it start of last week. Remember Friday before up to 13.5p on expectation of news and Monday morning old Dave dropped the price on no volume. People were saying Libya but that news was out Friday. I sensed at that point something was up.

[hermana3] 02/3/2011 16:04

Need that Rosavenda farmout pronto here. What the sf do the Italian office do on a daily basis or should one even ask?

[blue86] 02/3/2011 16:02

herm, dave also smells inside info and trades on it. its illegal. where is the regulator? -8% yesterday on tiny volume - hahahaha.

we're watching you dave

[blue86] 02/3/2011 16:01

GMP
SUBJECT: Petroceltic International (PCI LN) provided test results from the AT- 4 well on the Isarene Permit in
Algeria


IMPACT: Negative - AT-4 well tested gas at a rate of 1.35 mmcf/d of gas and 450 b/d of water. This volume of water reduced the gas flow to rates significantly lower than anticipated from this well.


DETAILS:

• PCI announced that the AT-4 well on the Isarene Permit (PCI 75%, Sonatrach 25%) in Algeria has tested gas at a rate of 1.35 mmcf/d of gas and 450 b/d of water.
• It is likely that the lower zone was fracced close to its waterline resulting in high volumes of water produced. This volume of water reduced the gas flow to rates significantly lower than anticipated from this well.
• After isolation of the lower zone to reduce water production, the upper zone was flowed separately at 1 mmcf/d of gas with an associated 250 b/d of water.
• The well confirmed the extension of the field to the East and increased the proven area and calculated GIIP. Operations at AT-4 have been completed and the well has been suspended.
• PCI is preparing to conduct logging operations in the next well, AT-5, prior to commencement of the horizontal section.

OUR VIEW: These are negative results as the AT-4 lower zone was fracced close to waterline resulting in high volume of water produced. This has reduced the gas flow to rates significantly lower than anticipated from this well. Nevertheless, the well confirmed the extension of the field to the East and increased the proven area and calculated GIIP. PCI can potentially re-enter the AT-4 well and drill a horizontal sidetrack to target better productive rates and mitigate water intrusion. Going forward, we look to the AT-5 well test results some time in mid-April and continue to see PCI's potential farm-out of its block in Algeria as the next large catalyst for the stock.

[hermana3] 02/3/2011 15:59

blue,dave smells blood when a drill is behind schedule. Great buying opportunity today but very few big buys going through so far.

[offerman] 02/3/2011 15:05

Yeah Blue, you should really give `em a piece of your mind next time :-)

[hermana3] 02/3/2011 15:03

He's hiding under a bushel...

[neversatisfied] 02/3/2011 15:01

You should stop beating about the bush blue, and tell em straight..lol

[steelwatch] 02/3/2011 13:34

Petroceltic provided test results from the first of its scheduled four wells (AT-4) in the current Algerian appraisal campaign this morning. Of note is the combined flow rate of 1.35 mmscfd compared to prior rates in the range of 4 mmscfd to 34 mmscfd. While well location at the eastern flank of the Ain Tsila field may well have produced a pre-stimulated outcome at the lower end of the above range the actual post-fracture result is clearly lower than anticipated, with the rate constrained by water production of 450 bbl/d. Both zones of interest were isolated and fractured, with both flowing associated water. The explanation suggested for the water production, which contrasts with the fact that the pre-test AT-4 well (gross gas column of 155m) did not encounter a gas-water contact, was that "induced fractures extended below the gaswater contact into an underlying aquifer". That theory will clearly be tested in the next well in the programme (AT-5), which targets a structurally elevated feature, the aim of which is to determine the field recovery rate via horizontal drilling. On balance, while we maintain our Ain Tsila valuation (risked contribution to NAV of 7.3p, Total risked NAV of 12.8p) pending greater clarity on the appraisal programme, the associated water production in the testing of AT-4 adds a layer of complexity and is likely to weigh on the share price this morning.

MORNING WRAP
Recommendation; Add
Closing Price: £0.11
Gerry Hennigan
T [phone]
E [e-mail]

[neversatisfied] 02/3/2011 13:16

When can we expect results from AT 5?

Whats bad? confirmed massive gas field, flow rates will come soon!

Might just buy a shed load more....yiiipppeeeee!!!!!!

[rallyman2] 02/3/2011 13:11

theres a shed load there just trying to map it out and evalate the find ...theres got to be an end to the field ie low to no pressure etc ....theres a min 10% trick here at this price in the very ver short term

[riley9] 02/3/2011 13:03

hmmmm. not really actually bad news - entirely neutral, just that the mms played it that way.
they could have said there's a load of gas, we fracced a bit low but its not an issue, then we'd have gone up. or down, as dave's running the show.

[marketboy2] 02/3/2011 12:58

Comment on Alphaville today

PCI announces the results of a flow-test from its first appraisal well on the Ain Tsila gas discovery in Algeria (PCI interest = 75%). Whilst lower than expected at 1.35mmcfd (about 200 boe/day) the AT-4 well nevertheless confirmed an easterly extension of the field, as originally announced in early January. Having encountered a gas column of 155 metres, the well was tested from two Ordovician zones. Both zones were perforated and fracture stimulated, although it is believed that the fractures extended below the gas-water contact resulting in inflows of water. This is believed to have negatively restricted the achieved gas rates. Hence whilst a little disappointing on the actual rates achieved, at least the easterly extension to the structure has been confirmed. The group still believe that the field could contain 6-14 tcf of gas in place, or 1-2bn boe, i.e. a massive find
The next well in the four-well programme, AT-5, has reached TD and will now be sidetracked 450 metres before also being tested. The PCI share price has fallen 30% from its 2011 high, and I'd view any weakness today as a buying opportunity.

[bzm390] 02/3/2011 12:20

went up on the 12th Jan [RNS]. Best case scenario is this share will consolidate over the next month intime for news on AT-5. Worst case scenario is share price will fall to 8p over the next 4 weeks in time for news and that seems like the most probable outcome given the reputation of investors here.

[freelunch] 02/3/2011 12:12

bzm you should check back on that statement above never seen this go up on any news yet.

[bzm390] 02/3/2011 12:05

on good news share price rises 1O%. On average news down 25% [including those who knew and sold before the RNS]

[blue86] 02/3/2011 12:00

viagra and a thousand buck hooker

[freelunch] 02/3/2011 11:56

This needs more than coffee to perk this up!!

[dizzylizzy2] 02/3/2011 11:36

Free - that's OK. You know i've been around for a long time as an investor and during that time i didn't trade one share unlike some others so one could say I wasn't a dedicated blinkered fan.

However, those who have experience of management (which I presume is most here) would quickly recognised the signs when things are not going as well as they should be. I picked that up when we did the Iber deal! I know most here say that was the best thing for PCI but imho that was just half the story. If Iber was under pressure to leave based on strategic reasons why did we give them such a good exit by agreeing to pay them money on top of the profit they made selling their stake? Have we paid that money yet? and why did we take our eyes off the ball in Algeria to start a campaign in Italy when Ain Tin sila is the prized asset? What was going on the background that prompted that move? Then the issue of the farmout and the fact that others have put up their Algerian assets for sale and seem to be having some difficulty flogging it. (At OB BOC mentioned that PCI contract terms are much better than most so that should help)

There is definately value there and I'm sure there is many out there itching to invest but we want to see more tangibles first.

[blue86] 02/3/2011 11:28

offerman - 2 Mar'11 - 11:17 - 25891 of 25895


Blue, could they refrac at the first interval(zone) as opposed to the secondary zone.? Thus cutting out water, and getting better rates than 5-6m that would of flowed naturally from the top zone as opposed to the 1.3 we have got lower down.

Could someone post a diagram of all AT`s so i can get a better look at acreage.

Cheers

----------------------------

yep - absolutely. go and re-read the mirabaud comment too